GERMANY: SPD Co-Leader Klingbeil Puts Himself Forward As Fin Min & VC
Tagesspiegel reports that co-leader of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), Lars Klingbeil, has put himself forward to serve as finance minister and vice chancellor in the incoming 'grand coalition' gov't with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). NTV reports that the party's executive committee voted unanimously in favour of this position. The prospect of Kingbeil serving as finance minister and vice chancellor had previously been mooted during the course of coalition negotiations (see 'GERMANY: Coalition Deal Reached, Presentation @ 1500CET, SPD Takes Fin Min', 9 Apr 1126BST).
- Klingbeil (47), hailing from Lower Saxony, first sat in the Bundestag in 2005 before being re-elected in 2009 and serving ever since. He is viewed as a moderate within the party, hailing from the centrist, liberal Seeheim Circle, which bills itself as a 'practical and undogmatic' grouping, compared to other more overtly socialist factions.
- This comes after confirmation that the SPD's membership approved the coalition agreement with 84% approval on a turnout of 56%.
- As Tagesspiegel notes, this marks the third time that the SPD membership has been asked to approve a governing coalition (each time with the CDU/CSU). The percentage of members approving is higher than ever (76% yes in 2013, 66% yes in 2018), but the turnout is the lowest to date (higher than 78% in both cases). Some have put the low turnout down to the online-only nature of this year's vote dissuading some less tech-savvy SPD members from voting.
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COMMODITIES: Despite Some Recent Gains, WTI Future Trend Remains Bearish
Despite recent gains, a bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact, and gains this month are considered corrective. However, a key resistance at $69.17, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. The breach strengthens a bullish theme and opens $70.98, the Feb 25 high. For bears, a reversal lower would expose the bear trigger at $64.85, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $63.73, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish. Today’s strong gains highlight a bullish start to this week’s session and confirm a continuation of the primary uptrend. The rally also once again, highlights fresh all-time highs for the yellow metal. Sights are on the $3151.5, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $2992.4, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
- WTI Crude up $0.42 or +0.61% at $70.02
- Natural Gas up $0.14 or +3.35% at $4.206
- Gold spot up $37.27 or +1.21% at $3122.36
- Copper down $6.95 or -1.35% at $507.4
- Silver up $0.12 or +0.35% at $34.3284
- Platinum up $7.56 or +0.77% at $995.67
EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Breach Key Support, Undermining Bullish Theme
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading lower today and this has resulted in a breach of key support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. The print below this support undermines a bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the 5200 handle next, where a break would open 5079.00, the Feb 3 low. It is still possible that recent weakness is part of a broader correction. Initial resistance to watch is 5359.39, the 20-day EMA. S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday and the contract maintains a softer tone. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at, 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 1502.77 pts or -4.05% at 35617.56 and the TOPIX ended 98.52 pts lower or -3.57% at 2658.73.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 15.561 pts or -0.46% at 3335.746 and the HANG SENG ended 307.02 pts lower or -1.31% at 23119.58.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 236.57 pts or -1.05% at 22254.1, FTSE 100 lower by 79.35 pts or -0.92% at 8591.89, CAC 40 down 99.8 pts or -1.26% at 7835.3 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 61.2 pts or -1.15% at 5278.03.
- Dow Jones mini down 203 pts or -0.49% at 41702, S&P 500 mini down 44.25 pts or -0.79% at 5589.5, NASDAQ mini down 239.5 pts or -1.23% at 19262.25.
FRANCE: Le Pen Embezzelement Verdict Underway
A court is delivering a verdict that could have significant implications for the direction of France's politics in the years ahead. Marine Le Pen, figurehead of the right-wing Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN), and others from the party are accused of embezzling funds from the European Parliament. If found guilty, prosecutors have asked that, as well as a large fine and a custodial sentence, that Le Pen is barred from seeking political office for five years. This would rule her out of the 2027 presidential election, a race in which she is currently the frontrunner.
- The court session got underway at 1020CET, and is expected to last around two hours. It is unclear in what order the judges will deliver verdicts on each of the 24 individuals charged.
- An appeal would be immediate in the event of a guilty verdict, but even this would not remove the bar. A recent Constitutional Court ruling declared that an individual can be declared ineligible to run for office even if they have launched an appeal and during that process, they would remain ineligible. There is some language in the wording of the ruling, regarding judges balancing the ineligibility ruling with the 'freedom of voters'. In any case this process likely results in a furious political storm, but the outcome is as yet unclear.
