BUNDS: Some big sudden flows go through in Bund
- We have seen no new news, nor fresh headlines to explain this big 32 ticks jump in Bund, the tariffs Trump news were widely reported, but one thing is clear, and that is the contract saw a massive 20k lots lifted in the space of less than 5 minutes.
- We also can't really attribute the move on stops, the futures was lifted well ahead of the 131.00 initial resistance, at 130.91 nor any Yield levels, since the move started circa 2.52% in Yield.
- Nonetheless, this seems to have been purely an order flow related, some could suggest a Fat finger, but this doesn't look like it.
- The contract continues to see very volatile moves, seems some desks are catching up with the price action, another 16k just goes through.
- The 131.28 resistance still holds for now.
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SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25
- PRICE: $33.147 @ 08:10 BST May 13
- SUP 1: $31.668 - Low May 1
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is likely a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 25 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
UK DMO UPDATE: Record Of The DMO Consultations With Gilt Market Participants
The DMO takes account of yesterday's consultations with gilt investors and market makers:
- "The DMO is planning to schedule one syndicated offering during the period for the sale of a new medium conventional gilt with the transaction planned to take place in September 2025. The DMO set out preliminary proposals for a schedule of programmatic gilt tenders in Q2 2025-26."
- The syndication scheduling comes after GEMMs and gilt investors raised strong support for such a medium conventional syndication in Q2 2025-26 for a gilt maturing in either 2035 or 2036.
- Gilt auctions and programmatic gilt tenders were also discussed in detail.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Bounce Extends
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4035 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12
- PRICE: 1.3973 @ 08:07 BST May 13
- SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD continues to trade above its recent lows. Despite the latest gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the move higher is considered corrective. A fresh cycle low last week reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4035, the 50-day EMA.
