POWER: Snowfall Weighs on German Solar Generation
Jan-07 12:22
Snowfall has been weighing on German solar PV generation in recent days, according to Bloomberg.
- “When you have already one or two centimetres of snow on your solar panels, production is down to zero. The effect is super large, and this is quite often underestimated in certain forecasts,” Markus Schwab, a climatologist at Meteomatics, said.
- Around 80% of German solar panels were covered by snow, Schwab added.
- Germany is set to see further snowfall in the coming days. The latest ECMWF weather forecast suggests Dusseldorf will see snowfall on 9-10 January with up to 6.5cm/day. Munich is forecast to also see further snowfall this week between 3.6cm and 6.4cm per day.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Support In Gilts
Dec-08 12:18
- In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle following last week’s impulsive sell-off, and today’s bearish start to the week. The breach of 128.67, the Nov 20 low, confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Oct 17. The contract has traded through the 128.00 handle, paving the way for an extension towards 127.57 next, a 2.000 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing, ahead of the 127.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is 129.55, Nov 26 high. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.
- A bullish short-term cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high. A gap in the daily chart has been filled and initial resistance to watch is 91.93, the Nov 27 high. Support to watch lies at 90.53, the Nov 26 low.
FOREX: CADCHF at 3-Month Highs Ahead of BOC/SNB [2/2]
Dec-08 12:05
- EURCAD slipped to a 3-month low on Friday, having held a contained range across November. Despite the 1% move lower, the cross remains 8% higher on the year and a pullback towards prior lows at 1.6000 and 1.5770 should not be ruled out. Russia/Ukraine ceasefire odds in 2026 remain at around 47% despite the consistent headlines surrounding peace talks, perhaps constraining the Euro’s upside, while EZ growth data continues to remain moderate at best.
- With the SNB decision also this week, CADCHF has risen back above 0.5800, a significant chart level across July/August this year. Persisting risk optimism highlighted by the resilience for major equity indices provides a tailwind for the cross, while the recent failure for EURCHF below 0.9200 may continue to frustrate remaining Franc longs. August highs at 0.5899 remain an obvious short-term target for CADCHF.
- RBC say the November labour report cements the decision to hold rates this week and is “consistent with our base case that the BoC will not need to reduce interest rates again through next year”. Separately Goldman Sachs note that several arguments they have made in favour of CAD funding still hold. However, recent data has signalled improvement, and GS see risks to CAD funding should growth data ultimately confirm that the economy has made it through the trough and is on an upward trend.
FOREX: USDCAD Consolidates Plunge Lower, Data Remains in CAD’s Favour [1/2]
Dec-08 12:02
- The Canadian dollar rallied impressively on Friday following the stellar employment report for November. As a reminder, job gains rose a solid 53.6k versus a -2.5k est., while the unemployment rate also dipped to the 6.5%, the lowest level since July 2024.
- The data builds on two similarly impressive prior jobs report, combining with a Q3 GDP print that showed that Canada's economy rebounded much faster than expected, underpinning the likely BOC hold this week.
- Technical developments have really boosted the bearish outlook for USDCAD. Resistance at the top of the bull channel held very well in early November, drawn from the July 23 low, and subsequently, the breach of the bull channel base has exacerbated downside momentum. A further break of the October low at 1.3888 also bolsters the bearish narrative.
- Price action this morning has seen USDCAD consolidate the recent plunge, printing a new 1.3814 low. 1.3769 (retracement point) and 1.3727 (Sep17 low) are the next chart points in focus as we approach both the BOC and FOMC decisions this week.
- Trade talks with the US remain stalled, however, there may be reason for tepid optimism given that Trump said Friday he is getting along well with Canada. Furthermore, when pressed on whether talks could be restarted, Trump said, "we'll work it out", before adding "They're very tough traders but I have a very good relationship with the Prime Minister and with Canada".
