EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Slovakia 2026 funding plan
Ahead of this week's syndication, Slovakia announced its 2026 funding targets in its October investor presentation.
- E10.0bln of gross bond issuance is expected, consisting of E5.5bln via syndication and E4.5bln via regular auctions although ARDAL notes that "Some financing needs may be covered by increase from State Treasury funds + liquidity buffer optimization."
- This compares to what is likely to be in excess of E12bln gross issuance in 2025: E5.5bln from syndication, E5.4bln expected from regular auctions (including the upcoming November auction), E0.8bln via the special auction and E0.5bln via retail bonds.
- The lower funding needs for 2026 are comprised of both a lower expected cash deficit (E5.1bln in 2026 vs E6.7bln in 2025) and lower redemptions (E4.9bln in 2026 vs E6.55bln in 2025).
- ARDAL notes that in 2026, there are no specific maturities planned and that these "could be arranged based on market conditions."
- ARDAL also notes that after the debut CHF deal in April 2024 a "return to CHF market and other currencies under consideration" as well as noting that other foreign currency issuance will be under consideration with "more active in diversification of the investor base (other markets roadshows) ."
- ARDAL has also confirmed that the reserve auction that had been pencilled in for Monday 15 December will not take place.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $49.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $47.857 - 2.618 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: $47.251 - 2.382 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- PRICE: $46.666 @ 08:11 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: $44.601/42.933 - Low Sep 26 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $40.619 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $38.580 - Low Aug 28
- SUP 4: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded higher on Monday as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $47.251 next, a 2.382 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards $47.857, the 2.618 projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $42.933, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3968 High May 20
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 1.3912 @ 08:07 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 1.3885/3810 Low Sep 25 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bullish theme in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent gains have resulted in the breach of a key resistance at 1.3925, the May 20 high and bull trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16. This paves the way for a climb towards 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3810, the 50-day EMA.
STIR: Modest Dovish Move In EUR Pricing After French CPI
A modest dovish drift in EUR STIRs since the softer-than-expected French inflation data (which comes after the softer-than-expected Spanish core & headline Y/Y CPI seen on Monday), with ECB-dated OIS now showing just over 9bp of easing through June vs. just below 9bp of easing over the same horizon pre-data. Meanwhile, Euribor futures have firmed at the margin, last flat to +2.0.
- German & Italian inflation data is now eyed through the remainder of today.
- With just under 10bps of easing priced through mid-26, markets may still be sensitive to a downside Eurozone core surprise. Some of the more dovish ECB officials continue to stress that inflation risks are tilted to the downside.
