AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Richer Post-CPI, Mixed On The Day
Jan-07 04:12
ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM +2.0) are 2-3bps stronger versus pre-CPI levels, but well off post-date highs.
- November trimmed mean CPI inflation moderated 0.1pp to 3.2% y/y in line with consensus, while headline fell more than expected at 3.4% after 3.8%. The complete monthly series is new with little track record and so the RBA will focus on the quarterly data for now with Q4 printing on 28 January.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session. US ADP private employment & JOLTS data today, NFP Friday.
- Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +59bps.
- The bills strip is -2 to -4 across contracts.
- RBA-dated OIS is slightly firmer versus pre-CPI levels. The pricing shows tightening across all meetings, with the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 41% for February to 121% by June and 189% by December 2026.
- TCV A$ Nov 2037 Benchmark Bond Tap, 10Y EFP+88-90bp Area
- Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Trade balance data for November.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
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BONDS: NZGBS: Heavy Session Outright & Relatively Vs $-Bloc
Dec-08 04:12
NZGBs closed 5-10bps cheaper, led by the 5-year. Accordingly, NZGBs sit amazingly 18-38bps higher than pre-RBNZ levels. (see chart)
- On a relative value basis, the 5-year swap is at its cheapest valuation since mid-2022, based on the 2-/5-/10-year butterfly spread.
- Versus the $-bloc, NZGBs also underperformed sharply, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differential 5-6bps higher. At +30bps, NZ-US differential is back at April levels.
- Swap rates closed 10-13bps higher, with a steeper 2s10s curve.
- RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed firmer across meetings. No easing is now priced for February, while November 2026 assigns 44bps of tightening.
- The local calendar was empty today and will remain so until Wednesday, when RBNZ Governor Breman hosts a media Q+A alongside Net Migration data.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$175mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$200mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.
Bloomberg Finance LP
MNI EXCLUSIVE: The BoJ & JGB Yields
Dec-08 04:05
MNI discusses the BOJ's stance on recent JGB yield moves.
On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
MNI: CHINA NOV EXPORTS +5.9% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
Dec-08 03:54
- CHINA NOV EXPORTS +5.9% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA NOV IMPORTS +1.9% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +2.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA NOV TRADE SURPLUS +$111.68 BLN VS MEDIAN +$103.3 BLN
