STIR: Short End Still Shows Outside Odds Of Further ECB Easing
EUR STIRs little changed early today, with the market continuing to price only limited odds of an additional rate cut in the current cycle as the ECB deems policy to be in “a good place”.
- ~7bp of easing is priced through September.
- Still, markets have been hesitant to completely unwind pricing of some easing, as there remains some uncertainty around how tolerant the Governing Council will be of a sub-2% inflation rate - even if this would be in line with ECB projections. Sell-side recommendations and recent Euribor options flow have suggested that dovish positions at the front of the EUR curve offer good risk/reward at current levels.
- The November low in ERZ6 held yesterday, with the contract rallying by 2.5bp since that test.
- Services PMIs (final readings for the Eurozone and larger regional economies) are due this morning.
Elsewhere, we will hear from ECB President Lagarde, chief economist Lane and acting Governing Council member Dolenc will cross through the day.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR (bp) |
Dec-25 | 1.929 | +0.0 |
Feb-26 | 1.925 | -0.4 |
Mar-26 | 1.902 | -2.7 |
Apr-26 | 1.897 | -3.2 |
Jun-26 | 1.865 | -6.4 |
Jul-26 | 1.862 | -6.7 |
Sep-26 | 1.857 | -7.2 |
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SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $49.456/54.480 - High Oct 23 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $49.052 @ 08:10 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: $45.963 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support
- SUP 4: $38.087 - Low AUg 27
Trend signals in Silver are bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. Note that the trend condition has recently been in overbought territory and the deeper retracement is allowing this to unwind. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $45.963. It remains intact, however, a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $49.456, Oct 23 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Recovery
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4039/80 High Oct 24 / 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4022 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 1.3848 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3769 Low Sep 19
- SUP 4: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
A strong rally in USDCAD last week highlights a reversal of the corrective bear leg between Oct 14 - 29. Note that the climb suggests that a doji candle on Oct 29 is a valid reversal signal. The pair is also holding on to its latest gains - a bullish signal. A continuation higher would open 1.4080, the Oct 16 high and a bull trigger. Key short-term support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3888, the Oct 29 low.
SWITZERLAND: Light CHF Weakness After October Inflation Softer-than-expected
EURCHF is testing last Friday’s 0.92920 high following the lower-than-expected October inflation print (+0.15% since the data was released). EURCHF has been consolidating just above the 20-day EMA of 0.92780 over the past three sessions. A clear break of this average would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.93079.
- In front-end rates markets, the Dec ’26 SARON future is up ~1 tick since the data was released. Although markets price a ~50% implied probability of another cut across the next 12 months, the bar to a move back into negative territory in the short-term looks to be fairly high. SNB’s Tschudin said last week that it is ok if inflation moves below 0% for a "short time".
- Core CPI was 0.5% Y/Y in October, below the 0.7% consensus and prior. Headline inflation was 0.1% Y/Y (vs 0.3% cons, 0.2% prior). A reminder that the SNB’s latest conditional inflation forecast for Q4 2025 is 0.4%.
- Imported inflation looks soft again, falling 1.3% Y/Y (vs -0.9% in September, -1.3% in August). Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation fell 0.5% Y/Y (vs -0.8% prior), while goods inflation was -1.6% for the second consecutive month. Although the CHF real effective exchange rate has weakened through the second half of October, the lagged impact of CHF strength since April still looks to be weighing on imported price pressures.
- Services inflation also softened relative to September, printing at 1.1% Y/Y (vs 1.4% prior). The volatile package holidays component looks to have played an important role though, rising 0.3% Y/Y (vs 4.8% prior).
