AUSTRALIA: SEEK Data Suggests Wage Inflation Contained

SEEK advertised salary (ASI) growth moderated in Q4 rising 0.7% q/q and 3.6% y/y after +1% q/q and 4.0% y/y in Q3. It is signalling that WPI wage inflation could fall further in Q4 when it is released on February 19, the day after the RBA meeting. Annual growth remains above the series average from 2017 of 2.9% y/y but has moderated significantly from the September 2023 4.9% y/y peak, in line with the RBA’s view that “wage pressures have eased more than expected”. 

• In November the RBA forecast the WPI to rise 3.4% y/y in Q4 down from Q3’s 3.5%. December SEEK data showed lower labour demand and solid labour supply, which should keep wage inflation contained. SEEK notes though that there are “still plenty of job opportunities available”.

Australia wages ex bonuses y/y%

• The December SEEK ASI rose 0.3% m/m after two straight quarters at +0.2%. It was up 3.6% y/y after 3.5% in November and 3.8% in September. With some labour market indicators tightening over H2 2024, such as underemployment, and some firms still reporting difficulties in finding skilled labour, SEEK said it is not surprising that December offered salaries ticked up.
• Vacancies continue to normalise though with SEEK job ads falling 3% m/m, the third consecutive drop, to be down 12.2% y/y in December and -5.1% q/q in Q4. The drop was broad-based across all states and only 4 sectors out of 28 increased. The December fall was due to education, hospitality and government. The index remains above the series average though.
• The applicant-per-job ratio fell 0.1% m/m in November but is still 33% higher than a year ago, signalling a significant improvement in labour supply. 

Australia SEEK new job ads index 2013=100

Source: MNI - Market News/SEEK