CANADA DATA: Sales Activity Points To Potential Marking Up Of GDP Ests

• MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN FEB +$284.7B
• US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN FEB +$112.0B

• RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1 
• RES 2: 1.4237 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.4028/4151 Low Apr 3 / Low Feb 14 
• PRICE: 1.3887 @ 16:11 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: 1.3829/22 Low Apr 14 / Low Nov 6 ‘24
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

USDCAD remains within range of recent lows but a bearish theme remains intact for now. Recent fresh trend lows marked a resumption of the downtrend and has signalled scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear -mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.4028, the Apr 3 low.  

• RES 4: 0.6428 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg 
• RES 3: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6389 High Apr 3 and a reversal trigger & 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6383 High Apr 15
• PRICE: 0.6382 @ 16:08 BST Apr 16 
• SUP 1: 0.6243 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone following recent gains. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high and the next important resistance. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6243, the 20-day EMA.