BUNDS: Reversed Yesterday's rally
- The German Bund saw a small gap lower on the Open, JGBs have once again led some of the small price action, with some Investors focused on the Long JGB 40yr Auction which came on the lower side of demand.
- The German Bund has reversed Yesterday's rally, and small support will be eyed at 130.72 initially.
- Below here, would see 130.15 next.
- The opening small gap is up to 131.02, but better resistance is still eyed at 131.72 and 132.03 (April high).
- For Treasuries, the June contract is still the most Active, but we will be quoting September as this will become the front Month during Today's session.
- Immediate support in TYU5 comes at 110.06+, but better is seen towards 109.25.
- There's isn't much in terms of real needle moving Data for Today, French GDP is final reading, ECB CPI Expectations are due, and on the margin, some will be watching the FOMC minutes, but again unlikely to be a market mover, with focus squarely on Tariffs.
- SUPPLY: UK £2.75bn 8yr (Equates to 17.8k Gilt) could somewhat weigh, Germany 2038, 2040 (equates combined 8.7k Buxl) should have limited impact. US Sells $70bn of 5yr notes and $28bn 2yr reopening.
- SYNDICATION: Spain 10yr Benchmark.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Kashkari, BoE Pill (text from 22nd May speech in Vienna).
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BRENT TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $75.47 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.47 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $67.26 @ 07:08 BST Apr 28
- SUP 1: $62.00/58.40 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures remain in consolidation mode and continue to trade closer to their recent highs. For now, the latest recovery is considered corrective and has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the next important resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $69.47.
BUNDS: A very busy Week ahead
- A very light Overnight session for the German Bund and very little change, the 132.03 level is still the initial key resistance, followed by the 132.40 gap.
- It will be interesting to see how the price action develops going forward and if the 132.03 level holds, there's a potential for a rising wedge formation (bearish signal).
- To the downside, the support comes at 131.11. Although better is seen at 130.75.
- While today is slow start with no notable release, this Week is packed with Tier 1 Data, while tariffs news will continue to drive cross assets near term.
- SUPPLY: EU €2.5bn 2029 (equates to 19k Bobl), EU 2034, 2038 (equates combined 31.3k Bund) these could somewhat weigh into the bidding deadline.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Rehn, Guindos.
EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.76/164.19 High Apr 25 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 163.29 @ 07:15 GMT Apr 28
- SUP 1: 161.37/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support
- SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
The recent pullback in EURJPY appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. Last week’s gains reinforce this theme. Key S/T support lies at 158.30, the Apr 7 low. A break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is 161.37, the 50-day EMA. Attention is on 164.19, the Mar 18 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
