GERMAN DATA: Retail Sales Keep Open Positive Consumer Spending GDP Contribution
German March retail sales came in at -0.2% M/M (real, seasonally-adjusted) and +2.2% Y/Y in March. That follows February's +0.2% M//M (downwardly revised but already known from +0.8%) and January's +0.7% M/M - meaning that while retail sales did not have an overly strong Q1, consumer spending should have the potential for a slightly positive contribution in the flash Q1 GDP data, to be published at 09:00 BST/10:00 CEST. Consensus for that stands at +0.2% Q/Q total.
- Looking at the individual categories, March's decrease appears driven by non-food sales at -0.6% M/M, while food sales were +0.3% M/M. Internet and mail orders stood out positively, at +0.6% M/M, Destatis adds - on a yearly comparison, growth in the sector is notable, at +9.5% Y/Y.
- Looking ahead, consumer sentiment has outperformed expectations recently; while improving despite the US tariff announcements, it remains overall weak.
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EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.49 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 31
- SUP 1: 161.13 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 160.66 50-day EMA and a pivot support
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
A bull theme in EURJPY remains intact and recent weakness between Mar 18 - 20 appears corrective. This sell-off allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support to watch is 160.66, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. For bulls, sights are on resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Bull Phase Remains In Play
- RES 4: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 3: 118.62 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 118.08 Intraday high
- PRICE: 118.05 @ 07:43 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 117.44 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 116.89 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 116.15 Low Mar 17
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Mar 14
Recent gains in BTP futures still appear corrective in nature. However, the contract continues to appreciate and price is trading higher once again, today. A continuation of the current bull phase would signal scope for a climb towards 118.62, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 116.89, the Mar 25 low. A break of this level would signal a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle.
EQUITIES: Lower Cash Opens Seen In Europe & UK
Increased U.S. tariff worries have weighed on risk appetite through Asia & early London trade, with European & UK equity index futures pointing towards lower cash opens as a result:
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures: -0.87%
- DAX futures: -0.77%
- CAC 40 futures: -0.97%
- FTSE MIB futures: -0.94%
- FTSE 100 futures: -0.72%
- SMI futures: -0.92%
- Note that Euro Stoxx 50 futures have broken below key support at the Mar 11 low (5,229.00), deepening the bearish threat. The contract has held above round number support at 5,200.00, with bears unable to force a test of that level as of yet. A break there would expose the Feb 4 low (5,160.00).
