RBA: Recent Data In Line With RBA View Of Stable Labour Market, Rates On Hold
In her November press conference, RBA Governor Bullock reiterated that the central bank looks at a range of labour market indicators and that overall they were stable and suggested a steady unemployment rate. The October jobs data were in line with this view. She also noted that the quit rate had jumped and that surveys and the RBA’s business liaison programme reported increased skilled labour difficulties. This will add to concern that policy may not be as restrictive as previously thought.
- The unemployment rate returned to 4.3% in line with the Q3 average. It has gradually risen and H2 is higher than H1 but it has been stable since June. Youth unemployment is another important indicator as the RBA says it leads the labour market. It fell 1pp in October to 9.6%, below Q3’s 10% and the lowest since May.
Australia unemployment rate 15-24 years %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- Importantly underemployment fell 0.2pp in October to 5.7% below Q3’s 5.8% and Q2’s 5.9%. It has been trending lower since mid-2024.
- Hours worked rose 0.5% m/m to be up 2.1% y/y after 0.5% & 1.4% the previous month. Both full-time and part-time hours rose in October.
- Bullock observed that job vacancies remain elevated. SEEK new job ads are recovering recording their third consecutive monthly rise in September with the 3-month annualised rate rising to 6.8% from -2.5% in June.
- The Q3 NAB business survey showed “suitable labour being a constraint” up to 30.0 from 27.3. Also, labour demand was stronger with expected employment was up 3 points to 12.5 (highest since Q4 2023) and change in employees over next year +2 points to 18.6.
Australia NAB labour availability constraint
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
CHINA PRESS: E-commerce Platforms Begin Shopping Festival Promotion
Several leading e-commerce platforms have already kicked off their campaigns for the upcoming Nov 11 “Double 11” shopping festival, according to a report by Yicai. Sources indicate that Taobao’s Flash Sale platform will participate in Tmall’s Double 11 for the first time this year, offering more than 10 million free-order coupons to consumers. Zhang Yi, founder and chief analyst at iiMedia Research, noted that the integration of instant retail services into the Double 11 event is likely to intensify the subsidy competition among platforms. With food delivery companies expected to join the event, Zhang anticipates sharper price wars across categories such as daily necessities, baby products, and food. However, for small- and medium-sized merchants, business may become increasingly challenging, Yicai noted.
CHINA PRESS: China's Imports Should Achieve Positive Annual Growth
China’s steady recovery in domestic demand is expected to drive imports to positive annual growth, following a 7.5% year-on-year increase in September, according to Cui Fan, professor at the University of International Business and Economics. Total imports for the first nine months reached CNY13.6 trillion, narrowing the decline during the first nine months to just 0.2%. On the export front, Cui noted that cumulative exports rose 7.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with September exports up 8.4%, coming despite a 16.2% year-on-year drop in shipments to the U.S., demonstrating overall resilience.
CHINA PRESS: China Begins Charging U.S. Ships Special Port Fees
Beijing has begun imposing special port fees on vessels that are U.S.-built or U.S.-flagged when calling at Chinese ports, according to an announcement from the Ministry of Transport. The Ministry clarified that Chinese-built vessels, empty vessels entering Chinese shipyards solely for repair, and other vessels granted exemptions upon review will not be subject to the fee. Under the new regulations, the Special Port Fee will be charged at CNY400 per net tonne starting Oct 14, 2025 and will gradually increase to CNY1,120 RMB by April 17, 2028. Each vessel will be charged for no more than five voyages per year and ships failing to pay the required fees will be denied entry and exit clearance at Chinese ports.
