AUSTRALIA: RBA Events & September Jobs Data Week’s Key Events
Oct-13 01:30
September jobs data on Thursday and the RBA minutes Tuesday and Governor Bullock’s appearance early Thursday are the highlights this week. With markets pricing in less than a full rate cut by year-end, these events will be scrutinised to gauge how long the RBA may be on hold.
- RBA Governor Bullock appears in a fireside chat at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington DC at 1545 local time on Wednesday but 0645 AEDT Thursday.
- Tuesday’s publication of the September 30 decision minutes will also be important given the Board’s more cautious tone and Bullock avoiding to state what the current stance is. She also noted that Board is concerned about certain CPI components including market services.
- Other RBA events this week include Assistant Governor (Economic) Hunter speaking on Wednesday at 1030 AEDT and Assistant Governor Kent (Financial Markets) on Thursday at 0850 AEDT.
- Thursday also sees September employment which consensus expects to rise 20k with the unemployment rate rising 0.1pp to 4.3% but the participation rate steady at 66.8%. The August data had disappointed falling 5.4k but unemployment was steady at 4.2% and underemployment moderated further.
- NAB’s September business survey prints on Tuesday. Confidence and conditions appear to be recovering and with that employment too. The price/cost components remain important. The price of final products appears to have stabilised.
- Westpac’s lead indicator for September is released on Wednesday and has been signalling a slowdown in growth.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Bounces Further Off Support
Sep-12 21:45
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.550 @ 15:36 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 96.430/95.900 - Low Sep 3 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures are trading off recent lows. A resumption of gains from here would further narrow the gap with resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Any continuation lower would instead strengthen a bearish threat. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would open 96.860, the Apr 7 high.
FED: MNI Fed Preview-September 2025: A Reluctant Return To Easing
Sep-12 21:16
We've published our preview of the upcoming FOMC meeting - Download Full Report Here
- The Federal Reserve is set to resume its easing cycle at the September 16-17 meeting with a 25bp cut to the funds rate range to 4.00-4.25%.
- The decision to cut after a 5-meeting pause was well-telegraphed by Chair Powell, whose Jackson Hole speech described a “shifting balance of risks” toward a weaker labor market that “may warrant adjusting our policy stance”.
- The updated quarterly projections aren’t likely to bring many changes to the macroeconomic variables, but as usual the signal sent from the Fed rate “Dot Plot” will garner attention. A Committee split between expecting one or two further cuts this year is likely, keeping each of the remaining meetings of 2025 “live”.
- The Statement will downgrade the description of the labor market to reflect a rise in the unemployment rate and poor payrolls growth, and is likely to include at least one dissent to the rate decision.
- But with a Committee that is fairly divided on the way forward, Powell will be noncommittal on future action, reiterating that policy is not on a preset course, and upcoming decisions will be data-dependent.
- A key undercurrent is an increasingly activist approach to Fed personnel management from the White House, which leaves the composition of the FOMC uncertain not just over the medium-term but also at this meeting.
MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Sep 15
RATINGS: Fitch: France Cut To A+ From AA, Portugal Up To A From A-
Sep-12 21:07
Fitch has downgraded France's sovereign rating to A+ (with stable outlook) from AA-. Release here.
- Among other factors in the decision, Fitch cites "High and Rising Debt Ratio", "Political Fragmentation Hinders Consolidation", "Weak Fiscal Record", "High 2025 Deficit", "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidation Path", and "Fiscal Rigidities".
- In "Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade", Fitch cites "Public Finances: A sustained increase in government debt/GDP over the medium term, due to failure to implement fiscal consolidation measures and/or a persistent increase in financing costs" and "Macro: Materially lower economic growth prospects and weakened competitiveness." Conversely, potentially leading to positive ratings action would be "Public Finances: Confidence that government debt/GDP will be put on a downward trajectory over the medium term, for example, due to fiscal consolidation and/or stronger economic growth".
- Fitch also raised Portugal to A (stable outlook) from A-, while elsewhere, S&P raised Spain to A+ (stable outlook) from A.
- As MNI wrote earlier, we expected France to be downgraded to A+ and Portugal to be upgraded to A.
