EUROZONE DATA: Q2 Flash GDP Wrap up: 2Q/2Q Momentum Remains Positive
Eurozone Q2 flash GDP was 0.11% Q/Q, down from 0.57% in Q1 and in the middle of consensus (0.0%) and...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: Underperforming EGBs Ahead Of Powell, ISM Mfg, JOLTS and OBBB 2nd Day
- Treasuries have extended Monday’s gains as part of broader FI rallies, underperforming EGBs.
- OBBB voting has extended into today as Senate Republican leaders are struggling to secure enough votes for it, with Bloomberg reporting 8 holdouts versus only 3 to spare.
- Today’s economic calendar is kickstarted by Fed Chair Powell in a panel at the ECB’s Sintra conference before being closely followed by the final manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing (preview part 1 and part 2) and JOLTS reports in a busy mid-morning.
- Cash yields are 1-3.5bp lower on the day, led by 7s.
- 5s30s at 98bps holds yesterday’s flattening away from last week’s ytd highs of 103.3bps.
- TYU5 trades at 112-11 (+ 07) on slightly above average cumulative volumes of 325k.
- It earlier touched a high of 112-12 as it approaches an important resistance at 112-15 (61.8% retrace of Apr 7-11 sell-off), after which lies 112-23 (May 1 high). The bull cycle remains intact but the uptrend is overbought.
- Data: S&P Global US mfg PMI Jun final (0945ET), ISM mfg Jun (1000ET), JOLTS May (1000ET), Construction spending May (1000ET), Dallas Fed services Jun (1030ET)
- Fedspeak: Powell in Sintra panel (0930ET) – see STIR bullet
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $50B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
SOFR: Mix Of Positioning Swings Seen In Futures On Monday
OI data points to a mix of positioning swings in SOFR futures as the strip twist flattened on Monday:
- The whites saw a mix of net short setting (SFRM5), long setting (SFRU5) and short cover (SFRZ5 & H6).
- Meanwhile, net long setting was more prominent in the red & blue packs
- Net short cover dominated in the greens.
| 30-Jun-25 | 27-Jun-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,301,324 | 1,278,882 | +22,442 | Whites | +13,534 |
SFRU5 | 1,123,944 | 1,122,985 | +959 | Reds | +11,895 |
SFRZ5 | 1,272,422 | 1,275,014 | -2,592 | Greens | -11,613 |
SFRH6 | 962,844 | 970,119 | -7,275 | Blues | +3,211 |
SFRM6 | 862,102 | 855,942 | +6,160 |
|
|
SFRU6 | 833,068 | 826,668 | +6,400 |
|
|
SFRZ6 | 956,058 | 949,964 | +6,094 |
|
|
SFRH7 | 706,582 | 713,341 | -6,759 |
|
|
SFRM7 | 647,589 | 652,023 | -4,434 |
|
|
SFRU7 | 454,869 | 456,988 | -2,119 |
|
|
SFRZ7 | 410,377 | 412,370 | -1,993 |
|
|
SFRH8 | 305,708 | 308,775 | -3,067 |
|
|
SFRM8 | 233,201 | 232,190 | +1,011 |
|
|
SFRU8 | 205,032 | 208,073 | -3,041 |
|
|
SFRZ8 | 189,490 | 181,392 | +8,098 |
|
|
SFRH9 | 138,146 | 141,003 | -2,857 |
|
|
USD: TECHS: USD Index (DXY) Pierces Key Trendline Support
The USD Index (DXY) remains in a bear cycle and has pierced a key long-term support at 96.55 - a trendline drawn from the May 2011 low. Trend signals highlight a number of important technical conditions.
- On a monthly, weekly and daily scale, the downtrend is in oversold territory.
- This does not mean that a trendline break (if confirmed) isn’t important and that the downtrend cannot extend.
- However, the oversold position does raise the possibility that either; a correction unfolds soon, or that the pace of the trend slows down, resulting in more volatile price action going forward.
- As is always the case in this situation, the momentum/oversold position is merely a warning sign for chartists. A reversal signal in price is required to highlight a base and for now, that hasn’t materialised.
- The next key long-term support to monitor is 95.24, 76.4% of the Jan ‘24 - Sep 22 bull phase.
