GERMAN DATA: Q2 Flash GDP As Weak As Expected, Negative Investment Contribution

German Q2 flash GDP came in as expected, at -0.1% Q/Q (-0.1% consensus, +0.3% Q1 downwardly revised by 0.1pp).

• "Investment in equipment and construction in the second quarter of 2025 was lower than in the previous quarter, according to preliminary findings. Private and government consumption expenditure, on the other hand, rose after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar effects", Destatis notes.
• Low equipment investment was arguably the most worrying part of German GDP over the past two years. Continued weak figures here would not bode well for productivity gains ahead. A recent private sector initiative, on balance, should be seen as a marginal net positive looking ahead.
• Today's flash release contains no commentary on the external sector, which saw elevated volatility amid global trade tensions in Q2. Final data will give more indication on contributions here.
• Destatis also highlights some partially material revisions to the GDP series - ranging from -0.6 to +0.5 percentage points since 2021 for the Q/Q readings on a seasonally adjusted basis. Q1 was 0.1pp weaker than previously seen (now 0.3% Q/Q), while Q4'24 was upwardly revised by 0.4pp to 0.2% Q/Q. More commentary here will follow with the final Q2 data (scheduled for August 22), Destatis mention.
• The Y/Y GDP comparison, at +0.4% when working day adjusted, was the highest reading since Q3'22 amid base effects (at least ahead of today's revisions).
• Expectations are for German growth to pick up in the quarters ahead. MNI's collation of sellside analysts sees headline GDP negative again in Q3 (-0.1% Y/Y), but accelerating then amid the government's fiscal push, to 0.3% in Q4 and 1.0% next year.
• Note that as part of this release the GDP series back to 2008 has been re-estimated.