EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put Condor Buyer

Bulls haven’t managed to test resistance at the 20-day EMA (91.99), despite the extension through Thursday’s highs, with global cues still dominating.

• Yields 3.5-6.5bp lower, curve flatter.
• 10s back into the range that has prevailed for much of July, after registering the highest close seen since May on Friday. Similar picture seen in 30s.
• The early rally in SONIA futures extends alongside the bid in the long end, contracts last flat to +7.0, retracing a little after some contracts registered fresh multi-week lows in recent sessions.
• Little net movement in BoE pricing on the day, ~48bp cuts priced through Dec.
• Public finance data and financial stability-centric comments from BoE Governor Bailey are due tomorrow.

• RES 4: 6439.884 1.500 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 6381.50 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 6357.00 High Jul 18      
• PRICE: 6343.00 @ 14:17 BST Jul 21  
• SUP 1: 6288.25 Low Jul 17  
• SUP 2: 6246.73/6101.83 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23 
• SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7 

S&P E-Minis traded high last week resulting in a fresh cycle high. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6381.50, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6101.83. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6246.73.

Downside In equites as Euro Stoxx 50 futures retest session lows and e-minis edge further away from session highs. No clear driver once again, maybe some looking more closely at the reports of increased hawkishness in EU-U.S. trade relations as we move towards the NY cash open, but the latest moves are modest in the grander scheme of things.