OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Gilts Remains Intact For Now
Nov-19 12:23
- In the FI space, a bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent lows. Support at 128.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this handle would signal scope for an extension towards 128.25, the Oct 7 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, the Nov 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal. First resistance is 129.09, the 50-day EMA.
- The recent sharp pullback in Gilt futures still appears corrective and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.85, the Nov 14 high. For bears, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme and open 91.67, a 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Large Call Spread buyer
Oct-20 12:11
ERH6 98.25/98.37cs, bought for 1.5 in 30k (ref 98.075, 10del).
CHF: EURCHF Nearing Key Support Ahead Of Inaugural SNB Meeting Notes
Oct-20 12:09
- Price action last week saw EURCHF break notably below 0.9300, a support level that has broadly been respected over the last six months. Spot has subsequently narrowed the gap to a crucial cluster of support between 0.9206-22, with Friday's 0.9219 print further strengthening the significance of this area from a technical viewpoint. Clearance of the lows would place EURCHF at its lowest since the peg removal in 2015.
- Domestically in Switzerland, last week's SECO forecasts would be consistent with an SNB policy rate of 0% for the foreseeable future. In real, trade weighted terms, the Franc stands only around 0.7% below the April highs. Clearance of these highs could prompt the SNB to harden their language on the Franc once again, having maintained their usual currency rhetoric in recent months that they remain “willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary".
- This brings particular focus on the inaugural edition of the SNB meeting minutes, which will be published this Thursday. In the minutes, alongside any view on FX valuations, we will look for more insight on whether Chairman Schlegel's non-mention of side effects of potential negative rates in his September opening remarks was a dovish or hawkish policy signal.
- Société Générale write today they "remain in wait-and-see mode" but that "there is merit in […] the safe -haven qualities of the CHF, relative to the EUR and GBP".
- Given the illiquidity back in 2015, support levels below 0.9200 are hard to pin-point. Fibonacci projection levels would place immediate attention on 0.9099 and 0.9032. USDCHF cycle lows at 0.7829 remain the key medium-term support level for the pair.
STIR: Repo Reference Rates: Retreat
Oct-20 12:02
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.18% (-0.12), volume: $3.022T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.16% (-0.09), volume: $1.180T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.16% (-0.09), volume: $1.145T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
