OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Bunds Remains Exposed
- In the FI space, Bund futures continue to trade above their latest lows. However, a bear cycle remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 129.30, the May 22 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish theme and exposes the next key support at 128.97, the May 14 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.24, marks the key short-term hurdle. A clear breach of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.
- A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s volatile bearish activity reinforces this theme. The contract has recently breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also traded through 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. The move down exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 92.08, the 20-day EMA.
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STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: 1M SOFR vs. Fed Funds Spread/Spread
- Oct'25/Feb'26 spreads Block/crossed at 0744:54ET:
- 10,000 SERV5/SERG6, 0.345 vs.
- 10,000 FFV5/FFG6, 0.355
UK: Gov't Expects Deal w/US On Car & Aerospace Tariffs In Force By End-June
Reuters reports that the UK gov't expects tariff arrangements with the US on cars and aerospace to come into force by the end of the month. This follows the signing of an order by US President Donald Trump and British PM Sir Keir Starmer at the G7 summit in Canada. The order will bring into force the agreement reached between the two last month, and see a reduction in tariffs for UK cars being exported to the US. The deal includes the 10% baseline tariff on almost all UK goods (including cars, down from 27.5%), but did not include any reduction in tariffs on steel (a move that was expected). A deal on steel is required by 9 July if the UK is not to see its tariff rate increase from 25% to 50% in line with other countries.
- As the BBC reports, "Ministers have hailed the US deal alongside trade deals with the European Union and India. But the US agreement is much more limited than the full-fat trade deal that has long been discussed on Downing Street. The scope of what was signed on Monday also appeared more restricted than the general terms of the deal as outlined last month. Trump has previously declared the pact on tariffs is a "major trade deal", but it is not. The US president does not have the authority to sign free-trade agreements without the approval of Congress."
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Jun19 $1.1415-25(E2.4bln), $1.1545-50(E1.2bln), $1.1585-00(E3.1bln); Jun20 $1.1600(E1.0bln), $1.1615-25(E1.1bln), $1.1700(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Jun20 Y143.00-15($1.9bln), Y146.00($1.9bln)
- EUR/JPY: Jun20 Y162.10-20(E1.3bln)
- AUD/USD: Jun19 $0.6600(A$1.1bln)
- USD/CNY: Jun20 Cny7.3000($1.4bln)
