OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Key Support In Bunds Remains Exposed

Sep-25 11:18

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* In the FI space, Bund futures are unchanged and the contract is trading closer to its recent low...

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Aug-26 11:14

USD2bln WNG of the new 5-year Sep-30 ESM-Bond
IPT: MS + 42 bps area (equiv. to CT5 + ~7.3bp)
Issuer: European Stability Mechanism (TICKER: ESM)
Issuer Ratings: Aaa (stable) (Moody's) / AAA (stable) (S&P) / AAA (stable) (Fitch)/ AAA (stable) (Scope)
Format: Registered Notes, Reg S (NSS) / 144A
Ranking: Senior, Unsecured, Unsubordinated
Settlement: 4 September 2025 (T+6 (TARGET) / T+5 (NY))
Maturity Date: 4 September 2030 (5Y)
Coupon: Fixed, Semi-annual, 30/360, Following, Unadjusted
Bookrunners: CACIB(DM/B&D) / DB / JPM
Timing: Taking IOIs today, expect to price tomorrow

From market source.

USD3bln of an ESM USD Bond will mature on September 10. That line was a 5-year issue also initially.

Aug-26 11:09

In FX, despite Monday's move down, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1597. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
A rally last Friday in GBPUSD signals the end of the recent corrective phase - Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would refocus attention on the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
USDJPY traded sharply lower last Friday highlighting a potential bearish threat. The bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, the 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg. Key resistance is far off at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.

Aug-26 11:01

Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
08/26 $500M #Mitsui & Co 5Y +63
08/26 $500M JERA Co 5Y +115a
08/26 $Benchmark OCBC 10NC5 +115a
08/26 $Benchmark BOC Aviation 5.5Y +90a
08/26 $Benchmark Bank Saudi Fransi 10NC5 +235a
Expected Wednesday:
- 08/27 $2B ESM 2030 WNG +42a
$1.5B Priced Monday
- 08/25 $1.05B *Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) $750M 5Y +73, $300M 5Y SOFR+106

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