OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Key Support In Bunds Remains Exposed
Sep-25 11:18
- In the FI space, Bund futures are unchanged and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Key support and the bear trigger remains exposed, it lies at 127.61, the Sep 3 low. A break of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and confirm a continuation of the medium-term bear cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. First resistance is at 128.60, the 20-day EMA.
- Despite the latest pullback from its recent highs, Gilt futures remain in a bull cycle and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support to monitor lies at 90.65 (pierced), the Sep 5 low. A clear break of this level would undermine a bull theme.
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ESM ISSUANCE: USD2bln WNG New 5-Year: Mandate
Aug-26 11:14
- USD2bln WNG of the new 5-year Sep-30 ESM-Bond
- IPT: MS + 42 bps area (equiv. to CT5 + ~7.3bp)
- Issuer: European Stability Mechanism (TICKER: ESM)
- Issuer Ratings: Aaa (stable) (Moody's) / AAA (stable) (S&P) / AAA (stable) (Fitch)/ AAA (stable) (Scope)
- Format: Registered Notes, Reg S (NSS) / 144A
- Ranking: Senior, Unsecured, Unsubordinated
- Settlement: 4 September 2025 (T+6 (TARGET) / T+5 (NY))
- Maturity Date: 4 September 2030 (5Y)
- Coupon: Fixed, Semi-annual, 30/360, Following, Unadjusted
- Bookrunners: CACIB(DM/B&D) / DB / JPM
- Timing: Taking IOIs today, expect to price tomorrow
From market source.
USD3bln of an ESM USD Bond will mature on September 10. That line was a 5-year issue also initially.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Signals Remain Bullish
Aug-26 11:09
- In FX, despite Monday's move down, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1597. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- A rally last Friday in GBPUSD signals the end of the recent corrective phase - Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would refocus attention on the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
- USDJPY traded sharply lower last Friday highlighting a potential bearish threat. The bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, the 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg. Key resistance is far off at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $500M Mitsui & Co 5Y Launched
Aug-26 11:01
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 08/26 $500M #Mitsui & Co 5Y +63
- 08/26 $500M JERA Co 5Y +115a
- 08/26 $Benchmark OCBC 10NC5 +115a
- 08/26 $Benchmark BOC Aviation 5.5Y +90a
- 08/26 $Benchmark Bank Saudi Fransi 10NC5 +235a
- Expected Wednesday:
- 08/27 $2B ESM 2030 WNG +42a
- $1.5B Priced Monday
- 08/25 $1.05B *Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) $750M 5Y +73, $300M 5Y SOFR+106
