OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Hold On To Recent Gains

MBA mortgage applications increased to recent highs last week on the back of a rise in volatile refinance applications. Overall levels remains subdued however and new purchase applications continue to point an anemic trend for housing activity. 

• MBA composite mortgage applications increased 10.9% sa last week after trending sideways in recent weeks, for their highest since single weeks in July and April and before that Sep 2024.
• It was however driven by a 23% increase in refis after 5.2% as new purchase applications once again saw relative underperformance with just a 1.4% increase after 1.5%.
• Comparison with 2019 averages: composite applications at 59.5%, new purchases at 62% and refis at 55%.
• These refis are reacting to a recent decline in mortgage rates, with the 30Y conforming rate falling 10bps to 6.67% after a 6bp decline the week prior. It leaves the conforming rate at its lowest since early April.
• 30Y mortgage rate to 10Y swap rate spreads remain at the low end of the 300 +/- 5bp range mostly seen since reciprocal tariffs were first detailed in early April, still wider than the 285bp averaged in Q1.
• Within the mortgage rate details, 30Y jumbo mortgage rates saw a relative correction as they increased 5bps to 6.70%. It saw the regular-jumbo spread slide from +12bp (highest since Oct 2023) to -3bp (lowest since mid-April), tentatively ending what had been a sign of some relative loosening in conditions or perhaps borrowers with higher FICO scores. 

• MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +10.9% SA THRU AUG 08 WK

• Treasuries have steadily firmed throughout London hours as they push back towards post-CPI highs, reversing the EGB-led post-data retracement that was hard to square away at the time.  
• Treasuries underperform EGBs but outperform Gilts.
• Today sees focus on further FOMC reaction to yesterday’s CPI release whilst Trump headlines can as always have an impact, especially with such a light data calendar today.
• Trump makes an announcement at The Kennedy Center at 1115ET, which we believe should be focused on announcing Honors recipients but we’ll monitor for any surprises.
• Cash yields are 2.5-4bp lower, with the front end lagging declines.
• The modest flattening sees curves ease away from post-CPI steeps. That includes 5s30s at 105.4bps (-0.4bp) after yesterday’s 107.6bps came close to ytd highs of 108.5bps.
• TYU5 has lifted to 112-02 (+ 08) at typing but remains within yesterday’s CPI-induced range of 111-19+ to 112-06. Cumulative volumes are higher than recent overnight sessions but still limited at 250k.
• The contracts hold its ground from a technical perspective, with resistance at 112-15+ (Aug 4/5 high depending on timezone) and support at 110-10+ (Jul 24 low).
• Data: MBA mortgage applications (0700ET).
• Fedspeak: Barkin (0800ET), Goolsbee (1300ET) and Bostic (1330ET) – see STIR bullet
• Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $65B 17-W bills (1130ET)
• Politics: Trump visits The Kennedy Center and makes announcement  (1115ET), Trump signs executive orders (1600ET)