OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Corrective Cycle In Bunds Intact For Now
Oct-29 12:06
- In the FI space, Bund futures are unchanged and continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The move down that started on Oct 17 is considered corrective and this has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial key support at 129.46, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. This exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.10. For bulls, a reversal would refocus attention on the key resistance at 130.59, the Oct 17 high. First resistance is 130.07, Oct 24 high.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and yesterday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are the 94.00 handle next. A break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 94.24, a 1.618 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch 92.41, the 20-day EMA.
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Sep-29 12:03
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.16% (-0.02), volume: $2.917T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.14% (-0.03), volume: $1.154T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.14% (-0.03), volume: $1.113T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Opens Door To Avert Govt Shutdown
Sep-29 12:02
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Executive summary:
- President Donald Trump will sign an executive order in the morning. Trump will present Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a US-backed 21-point proposal to end the war in Gaza or face deeper international isolation during a bilateral meeting at 11:30 ET 16:30 BST. Trump and Netanyahu are scheduled to hold a joint press conference at 13:15 ET 18:15 BST.
- At 15:00 ET 20:00 BST, Trump will meet with Congressional leaders in a last-ditch attempt to prevent a government shutdown on October 1. While a deal is possible, rhetoric from Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) suggests a shutdown is more likely than not.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has started interviewing candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
- Trump will join hundreds of top US military leaders for an unusual meeting in Virginia tomorrow.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is working on a “mega deal” to buy weapons from the US.
- The UN reimposed economic and military sanctions on Iran after Tehran and European powers failed to reach a deal to re-engage in diplomacy with the US and allow IAEA inspectors access to the country’s nuclear facilities.
- US military officials are reportedly considering strikes on cartels within Venezuela.
- Poll of the Day: Attacks by far-left extremists outpaced far-right violence in 2025 for the first time in more than three decades.
Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF
SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer this week
Sep-29 12:02
Tesoro Publico has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E4.5-5.5bln of the following Bono/Obli/Green Obli at its auction this Thursday, October 2:
- the 2.70% Jan-30 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O00)
- the new 3.00% Jan-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012P74)
- the 1.00% Jul-42 Green Obli (ISIN: ES0000012J07)
Tesoro Publico has additionally announced it will be looking to sell E250-750mln of the 1.15% Nov-36 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012O18) at that auction.
