OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bunds Trade Through The 50-Day EMA
May-09 11:32
- In the FI space, a bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. However, the contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 130.60. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and opens 129.92, the Apr 11 low. A reversal higher would highlight the end of the corrective phase. Attention would turn to key resistance and the bull trigger, at 132.03, the Apr 7 high.
- The latest pullback in Gilt futures appears corrective. However, the contract is trading lower today and this has confirmed a break of support at the 50-day EMA, at 92.52. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to 91.73, the Apr 17 low. On the upside, a reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective phase and open 94.50, the Apr 7 high and key resistance. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 93.93, the May 2 high.
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FOREX: NZDUSD Off Best Levels Following China Headlines
Apr-09 11:31
- NZDUSD takes a knock on the China tariff retaliatory measures but remains relatively resilient as greenback sentiment has soured on Wednesday. The pair remains solidly off the overnight lows, having printed a fresh 5 year low (0.5486) shortly before the RBNZ rate decision.
- The MPC acknowledged risks to global growth following Wednesday's decision to lower the OCR a further 25bps to 3.5%, but some board members were less sure over the effectiveness of monetary policy to address a supply-side shock.
- Although NZDUSD breached the 2022 low below 0.55, the selloff fell short of the pandemic induced lows from 2020 at 0.5470. A break below here would place the pair at the lowest level since 2009.
- HSBC remain bearish on NZD particularly against low-yielding safe havens, and also the USD. They note there is a structural debate over USD and US investments, but the NZD is unlikely to benefit much. HSBC see Asian EM FX and EM equities as the key anchor for NZDUSD – close correlations within the past month are evidence of this. HSBC do not see the recent decline in NZDUSD as excessive in the context of extreme risk aversion.
UK: ITV-PM Says Fiscal Rules "Iron Clad & Here To Stay", "Won't Be Changed"
Apr-09 11:22
Robert Peston at ITV posts on X: "The prime minister has just told me that the chancellor’s fiscal rules are “iron clad and here to stay”, that “they won’t be changed”. This is his response to contagion from the shocking Trump-induced fall in US government bond prices, which has seen the interest rate for UK 30-year sovereign debt rise to levels not seen since 1998. He is explicitly trying to reassure lenders to the UK"
- There has been speculation in recent weeks that the fiscal rules could be altered amid the prospect of another tax raising/spending cutting budget to come in the autumn. Speaking on Monday, PM Sir Keir Starmer said the rules 'won't be ignored'.
- Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reves said earlier, when asked if the fiscal rules would remain unchanged for the whole parliament "Yes. Those fiscal rules ... are non-negotiable because they are the bedrock of the stability and security that families and businesses need."
- Nevertheless, this marks the first time the PM has committed to them remaining as-is.
TARIFFS: China increases tariffs on US to 84% from 34%
Apr-09 11:14
- The China tariff increase on the US is to 84% from 34% and is applicable from 12:01 China standard time on 10 April (so in a few hours).
- The language has escalated, too.
- From the press release via Google Translate: "The US's practice of escalating tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, which seriously infringes on China's legitimate rights and interests and seriously damages the rules-based multilateral trading system."
- Full statement link.
