OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bunds Trade Just Ahead Of Key S/T Resistance

• USDJPY has been pressured by lower core yields on Monday and the monthly Tankan survey / wage report which reinforce the expectations for a BOJ hike this week.
• Most recent weakness sees USDJPY extend its intra-day range to around 115-pip, with the latest dip prompting a brief breach of last week’s lows below 154.90.
• Below here, the December 05 low at 154.35 and the 50-day EMA at 153.95 represent an important support area as we navigate both the US data releases and BOJ meeting this week.
• Broad dollar depreciation sees the likes of EURUSD and GBPUSD press to fresh session highs, although ranges remain relatively contained and both pairs remain shy of last Thursday’s peaks.
• Fed's Miran and Williams are scheduled to appear later today, while US empire manufacturing and the NAHB housing market index are on the calendar in terms of data.

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• Speaker: Alberto Musalem, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.
• Topic of discussion: ‘U.S. Economy & Monetary Policy.’
• Date: Tuesday January 13 from 10am to 10:35ET; 3pm to 3:35pm GMT
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The Swiss government and KOF institute have raised their domestic economic growth forecasts as these now incorporate the 15% US - Swiss tariff deal. The revisions bring the forecasts roughly in line with the SNB's view from last week, which continue to be consistent with a policy rate at 0% for the foreseeable future.

• Specifically, the government sees growth in 2025 at 1.4% (from 1.3% in the last projection in October), 2026 at 1.1% (0.9% October), and 2027 at 1.7% (new). These new forecasts match the view of KOF institute to 1dp for all three years in the horizon.
• The government draw a positive outlook for Q4: "Available data and surveys indicate that GDP growth will resume in the final quarter of the year" after Q3 was very weak at -0.5% Q/Q.
• KOF meanwhile adds "the positive effect of lower tariffs is partially offset by the gloomy international outlook", specifically mentioning a gloomy outlook for Germany.
• For reference, the SNB expects 2025 growth at "just under 1.5%" and 2026 growth at "around 1%".