OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Bunds Intact
Oct-17 11:18
- In the FI space, a bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact and the contract has traded a fresh cycle high. The impulsive nature of the latest rally paves the way for a test of the next key resistance 130.80, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. Note that the contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support is 129.03, the 20-day EMA. First support is 129.88, the Oct 16 low.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and this week’s strong impulsive gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high today and recent gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The break opens 93.30 next, a 1.236 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at 91.28, the 20-day EMA. First support is 92.07, the Oct 15 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.
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SOFR OPTIONS: BLOCK: Oct'25 SOFR Calls
Sep-17 11:18
- 4,000 SFRV5 96.62 calls, 1.0 vs. 96.36/0.10% at 0711:01ET
EQUITY OPTIONS: HUGE Commerzbank Put Roll
Sep-17 11:17
- CBK (18/12/26 vs 18/06/27) 20p, bought the 2027 in 100k.
It is confirmed that the trade is good, and not a miss cross.
BOJ: Nikkei Suggest Rates To Be Held Steady On Friday - More Interest In October
Sep-17 11:15
"*BOJ EXPECTED TO HOLD RATES STEADY AT MEETING THIS WEEK: NIKKEI" Bloomberg
No big surprises there with that Nikkei headline (story here ) - there's much more interest in the BOJ decisions later this year (October, December).
- The MNI Policy Team highlighted that BOJ officials will pay close attention to the September Tankan results on Oct 1.
- Economists predict the Bank of Japan’s September Tankan survey will show a modest improvement in benchmark business sentiment from three months ago, with capital investment plans by major firms for fiscal 2025 likely to remain solid.
- While supportive for the BOJ in seeking opportunities to raise the policy rate, the results alone are unlikely to be decisive for a hike at the October meeting. Uncertainty over trade policy continues, though the July 22 Japan-U.S. trade deal is expected to help lift sentiment.
