OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bounce in Gilts Appears Corrective For Now

ERM6 98.25/98.4375/98.50/98.87c condor vs 97.87p, bought the condor for 1.5 in 10k.

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• At 16:00 ET 21:00 BST, President Donald Trump will meet NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte for a hastily arranged 'closed press' meeting after Trump floated - then appeared to quash - a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  
• In November, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman will visit the White House for the first time since 2018. The trip may deliver progress toward Saudi-Israeli normalisation and the signing of a new defence pact with the Trump administration.
• Vice President JD Vance will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today as he continues a trip aimed at shoring up the Gaza peace plan.
• Government shutdown Day 22: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will hold an eleventh vote on the GOP's CR and a separate vote on a bill to pay essential government employees required to work during the shutdown. Both are expected to fail.
• Trump expects to make a "good deal" with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the margins of the APEC summit.
• The Trump administration's economic policies are on track to close the deficit, according to Treasury Department analysis.  
• India and the US are reportedly nearing a deal to lower tariffs.
• Crypto leaders will meet with Senators today, in an attempt to restart stalled talks on a market structure bill.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the Treasury Department signed an economic stabilisation agreement with Argentina.
• Chart of the Day: US corporations appear optimistic about the economy.

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

US swap spreads widen up to ~1bp on that latest Bloomberg report before fading a little. The report suggested the Fed has floated plans to relax a Biden-era bank capital proposal for big banks. Less stringent capital rules would in theory free up more balance sheet space to hold USTs.

• 10-year swap spreads are now at -33bps.  A close at current levels would be the highest since the start of April (amid Liberation Day volatility).
• Spreads have widened around 5bps since the middle of September, including a notable move last week following comments from Fed Chair Powell (who pointed to the potential end to QT in the coming months).