OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Bunds Still Present

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 11/03 $Benchmark UBS 8NC7 +120a, 21.5NC20.5 +115a
• 11/03 $Benchmark Peoples Republic of China 3Y, 5Y 
• 11/03 $Benchmark Qatar 3Y +45a, 10Y Sukuk +55a
• 11/03 $Benchmark Kingdom of Jordan 7Y investor calls

• On the commodity front, a fresh cycle low this week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3859.1. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
• Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.

• "EFSF has mandated BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, and NatWest to joint lead manage its upcoming dual-tranche transaction consisting of a 5yr EUR Benchmark maturing 11th November 2030 and a tap of the outstanding senior unsecured EUR 4bn 2.875% notes due 29th January 2035 (EU000A2SCAS8)."
• "The transaction is expected to be launched and priced in the near future, subject to market conditions."

From market source

Note: MNI expects this dual-tranche transaction to be the last of the year and to raise the remaining E4.5bln from the EFSF's 2025 funding plan.