OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Bunds Remains Intact
Nov-14 12:28
- In the FI space, a strong sell-off in Bund futures yesterday reinforces the current corrective bearish condition and today’s fresh short-term cycle low, highlights a resumption of the bear leg. A continuation would pave the way for a move towards 128.52, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, the Nov 13 high. A clear break of this level would signal a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase.
- Gilt futures gapped sharply lower at the open. For now, a move down is considered corrective and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.85, today’s intraday high. On the downside, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme.
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BONDS: Off Highs
Oct-15 12:23
{WO} BONDS: Core global FI markets edge away from session highs, no clear headline triggers.
- Move aided by round number resistance in Bund futures holding (130.00).
- Elsewhere, momentum in the OAT rally/spread tightening to Bunds stalls, with 10-Year OAT yields failing to break below 3.35%.
- Fresh demand for European benchmark equities also noted, although the intraday correlation between the two asset classes has been variable.
STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 SOFR Buy
Oct-15 12:21
- +10,000 SFRZ5 96.37, post time offer at 0806:00ET.
- The Dec'25 contract trades 96.365 last (-0.010).
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
Oct-15 12:03
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.19% (+0.04), volume: $2.932T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.16% (+0.04), volume: $1.144T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.16% (+0.04), volume: $1.113T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
