GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Political Events Calendar 2026

• RES 4: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 113-29+ High Oct 17 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 113-23   High Oct 23
• RES 1: 113-11/22+ Intraday high / High Nov 25
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-29+ @ 14:36 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 112-37   50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-10+ Low Nov 20
• SUP 3: 112-07   Low Nov 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 112-02+ Low Sep 25  

Treasuries have started the week on a bearish note. Today’s move down has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, exposing support at the 50-day EMA at 112-37. A clear breach of this average would undermine a recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher is required to refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 113-29+, the Oct 17 high.

• MNI: US NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 52.2 (51.9 FLASH, 52.5 OCT)

The S&P Global Canada manufacturing PMI fell 1.2pts to 48.4 in November to unwind more than half a nearly 2pt increase to 49.6 in October. The index may be holding above the 45.3 low seen in April on reciprocal tariff announcements but the press release still sounds gloomy (link). Some highlights below: 

• “Canada’s manufacturing economy experienced a modest contraction in operating conditions during November amid quicker contractions in both output and new orders.”
• “Market uncertainty and subdued demand were widely reported, and this continued to weigh on confidence and workforce numbers, which fell again in November.”
• “Some relatively positive news was, however, seen on the price front, with input cost inflation dropping to its lowest level for over a year. Selling charge inflation similarly softened.”
• For some further details on selling prices: “tariffs and higher supplier charges pushed up overall input costs in November, but inflation overall was the weakest for over a year. This helped to explain a slower increase in overall output charges. Competitive pressures were also noted to have limited the scope to which firms could increase their selling prices over the month.”