GERMAN DATA: October Factory Orders Helped By Large One-Off; Sep Revision
October German factory orders come in above consensus, helped by a (seemingly domestic, transport/military) one-off as the core reading also sees some gains but is a little more contained. An upward September revision is also a net-positive.
- "When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were 0.5% higher than in the previous month. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders in the period from August 2025 to October 2025 were 0.5% lower than in the previous three months; when large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were down 0.1%.", Destatis comments.
- "The positive development of new orders in manufacturing in October 2025 was essentially attributable to the growth observed in the "manufacture of other transport equipment" sector (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles). Here, new orders were up 87.1% month on month due to a large-scale order, after adjustment for seasonal and calendar effects. The increase in the manufacture of basic metals (+11.9%) also positively impacted the overall result, whereas the decrease in the manufacture of electrical equipment (-16.2%) had a negative effect"
- Real turnover in manufacturing (released simultaneously with factory orders, +0.3% M/M) would imply a muted but marginally positive print in Monday's IP after September's +1.3%.
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BTP TECHS: (Z5) Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.35 @ Close Nov 4
- SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 120.60 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7
The trend conditions in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 3: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 154.80 High Feb 12
- RES 1: 154.48 High Nov 4
- PRICE: 153.52 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 152.96 High Oct 10
- SUP 2: 152.21 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 150.41 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 149.38 Low Oct 17
The trend condition in USDJPY unchanged, it remains bullish despite the recent fade off highs. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 152.21, the 20-day EMA. A deeper pullback would be considered corrective.
FINLAND T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Finland has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E2.0bln of the following at its auction next Tuesday, November 11:
- the 6-month May 13, 2026 RFTB
- the 9-month Aug 13, 2026 RFTB
