MNI Banxico Preview - Feb 2026: Risk Of Extended Pause
Feb-03 16:32By: Keith Gyles
Mexico
Executive Summary
- Banxico is widely expected to remain on hold at 7.00% on Thursday, as it takes its time to assess incoming data amid concerns about persistent core CPI inflation pressures.
- The recent shift in the committee’s guidance, plus confirmation from an MNI interview with Deputy Governor Cuadra, has all but cemented an easing cycle pause.
- Further ahead, however, the weak growth backdrop keeps the door open to renewed rate cuts later this year, and in its recent 2026 monetary programme, the central bank said that it will evaluate the moment for further easing after assessing price adjustments.
- Economists see the next cut coming in May, according to latest survey data, but risks are skewed towards a longer pause into the second half of the year.
The recent shift in the committee’s guidance, plus confirmation from an MNI interview with Banxico Deputy Governor Gabriel Cuadra, has reinforced expectations for a pause in the easing cycle this week. Speaking to MNI last month, Cuadra indicated that the board needs to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach going forward, which from his point of view implies pausing the cutting cycle at the next meeting.
More recently, the central bank gave a clear signal in last week’s 2026 Monetary Programme publication that it would pause its easing cycle, noting that it sees a more gradual approach to rate cuts ahead and that it will evaluate the moment for further easing after assessing price adjustments, and if prices avoid extra increases.
