ECB: Nothing New From Nagel

Gilts trade back from session highs that were registered around midday London time, with the previously covered downtick in Tsys providing some light pressure in more recent trade.

• That came after a downtick in crude oil prices and solid demand at this morning’s gilt auction factored into a recovery from lows.
• The rally from low in futures failed to get anywhere near closing the opening gap lower, which has negated some of the recent bullish momentum.
• Contract last -48 at 91.64, with yesterday’s boundaries continuing to provide initial support and resistance.
• Intraday bear steepening theme intact, yields 3-6bp higher. 5s30s remains on track for a fresh cycle closing high, last ~143bp.
• Flash PMI data headlines the UK calendar on Thursday.

• RES 4: 6439.88 1.500 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 6381.50 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: 6374.00 High Jul 21      
• PRICE: 6366.00 @ 14:31 BST Jul 23  
• SUP 1: 6288.25 Low Jul 17  
• SUP 2: 6264.70/6120.59 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 6075.25 Low Jun 24
• SUP 4: 5959.00 Low Jun 23  

S&P E-Minis have traded to a fresh cycle high this week. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6381.50, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6120.59. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6264.70.

• -2,000 2QQ5/2QU5 96.37 puts, 1.75 ref 96.77
• -5,000 0QU5 97.50/98.50 call spds vs. 2QU5 97.50/98.00 call spds, 0.75 flattener
• -5,000 0QU5/2QU5 97.50/98.50 call spds, 0.75
• -4,000 SFRQ5/SFRU5 96.00 call spds, 1.25 ref 95.835
• Update: earlier Block/screen reduced back to +44,265 SFRQ5 95.62 put, cab (had been 103k earlier)