AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound
* RES 4: 0.6729 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing * RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 '24 * ...
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AUDUSD TECHS: Edging Higher Despite RBA Cuts
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6563/6625 High Aug 13 / 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6552 @ 16:00 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness - erasing any signs of a bearish breakout on the show through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. While support at 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has been cleared, the recovery in prices keeps key resistance in focus at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger. Any return lower would signal a bearish threat into 0.6373, the Jun 23 low.
STIR: Sept Implied Fed Rates At 6-Week Lows After Bostic, Goolsbee Comments
Fed funds futures-implied cuts for September's meeting extend through 26bp, up 2+bp on the day and 1bp since commentary this afternoon by Atlanta Fed's Bostic and 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago's Goolsbee. The 4.07% implied funds rate is the lowest for the September meeting since the solid June payrolls data release on July 3.
- This dovish intraday shift is a little counter-intuitive: Bostic, who doesn't vote in 2025 or 2026, sounded the more dovish of the two, acknowledging that continued evidence of weakness in the labor market could put at risk his current view that only one cut by year-end would be appropriate; Goolsbee, who actually votes in September, said that fall Fed meetings would be "live" but didn't sound all that enthusiastic about easing soon, fretting over the services inflation pickup in July's CPI report report, and seeing job growth weakness as potentially the result of a drop in population growth.
- The shift in September pricing accounts for the bulk of the shift in implied pricing through the next several meetings: Oct and Dec see 3.5bp more implied cuts (43bp and 64bp respectively) on the day, with an additional 4bp through March (5 meetings from now).
| Meeting | Current FF Implieds (%), LH | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) | Incremental Chg (bp) | Yesterday (Aug 12) | Chg Since Then (bp) |
| Sep 17 2025 | 4.07 | -26.5 | -26.5 | 4.09 | -2.3 |
| Oct 29 2025 | 3.90 | -43.2 | -16.7 | 3.93 | -3.5 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 3.69 | -63.8 | -20.6 | 3.73 | -3.5 |
| Jan 28 2026 | 3.58 | -75.2 | -11.4 | 3.61 | -3.5 |
| Mar 18 2026 | 3.45 | -88.4 | -13.2 | 3.49 | -3.9 |
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 172.46 @ 15:59 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 169.83 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.83. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.
