GERMAN DATA: Net Exports Weigh On Q4 GDP
German Q4 flash GDP underperformed consensus estimates at -0.2% Q/Q (vs -0.1% cons, 0.1% prior). GDP also contracted 0.2% on an annual basis (vs 0.0% cons, -0.3% prior).
- Few details are provided in the flash release, but Destatis notes that “while household and government final consumption expenditure increased, according to the provisional results available, exports were significantly lower than in the previous quarter”.
- “After a year marked by economic and structural challenges, the German economy thus ended 2024 in negative territory”.
- Yesterday, the German government officially reduced its 2025 GDP projection to 0.3% Y/Y (from 1.1% prior). The 2026 growth projection was revised to 1.1% Y/Y (vs 1.6% prior). This figures were in line with a source report from Handelsblatt released last week.
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SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.676 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $28.945 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
