ECB: Need To Look At Impact Of Exchange Rate Shifts - Lane
FAZ has released an interview with ECB Chief Economist Lane from back on May 20 (transcript from ECB website, here). He notes the ECB will cut rates further if it sees signs of further falling inflation. There is also some greater discussion on exchange rate considerations, after ECB President Lagarde yesterday talked on the euro’s strengthening role as a reserve currency potentially enabling the Eurozone to benefit from lower borrowing costs.
- He thinks that the task to bring inflation back to the 2% target is mostly completed (similar to Nagel just earlier seeing the target within reach) although Lane still sees services inflation as being too high.
- No discussion about dramatic rate cuts: “We need to find a middle path. If we keep interest rates too high for too long, the disinflation pressure of US tariffs could cause inflation rates to fall below our target. If we cut too much and too quickly, a strengthening economy and other factors could drive inflation back up. This is why we will pay close attention to the data in our next meetings. If we see signs of further falling inflation, we will respond with further interest rate cuts – but the range of discussion is not that wide: no one is talking about dramatic rate cuts. We are in a zone of normal central banking.”
- Need to look at impact of exchange rate shifts: “The exchange rate is of course an important factor in the development of inflation, even if we do not pursue an explicit exchange rate policy. However, most trade in the euro area takes place between countries sharing the euro as a common currency and, therefore, the exchange rate does not play a role. Trade with the United States and other regions of the world is important but it’s not the dominant factor. At the same time, we need to look at the impact of exchange rate shifts in a situation like we have now.”
- Euro well placed to gain bigger market share: “The natural second currency is the euro. It is well placed to gain a bigger share of the market. This could be supported by further European integration – to put the euro on a firmer foundation.”
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US TSYS: Extraordinary Measures And Cash Look Sufficient To Head Off X-Date
Treasury has about $164B in "extraordinary measures" available as of April 23 to avoid hitting the debt limit, per its regular report out Friday. That's out of a maximum total of $375B (they have used $211B).
- With Treasury cash looking healthy (around $600B), that's a fair amount of dry powder to get through the summer months to wait out the debt limit impasse. Tax receipts have looked strong with tariff revenues also starting to boost cash flows, further reducing the near-term urgency to adjust bond issuance.
- This has also helped push back analyst “x-date” expectations to later in the summer/September. We expect to hear from Treasury about its own x-date assumptions next week.
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Liquidity across financial markets including the Treasury market deteriorated after President Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement but market functioning was generally orderly, according to the Federal Reserve's semiannual report on financial stability, released Friday. (PDF link is here)
- Treasury market liquidity has been poor for years and yields were particularly volatile in early April, contributing to a deterioration in market liquidity, the Fed said.
- Nevertheless "trading remained orderly, and markets continued to function without serious disruption," according to the report, which looked at information available as of April 11.
FED: Ex-Gov Warsh: Fed Has Failed To Satisfy Price Stability Remit
From our Washington Policy Team - Some fairly sharp words today from ex-Fed Governor Warsh on the central bank (who for what it's worth is seen by betting markets as by far the frontrunner for the next Fed Chair):
- The best way for the Federal Reserve to safeguard its independence is for policymakers to avoid expanding the institution's role over time, including wading into policy areas that are outside its core mission, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, a leading contender to replace Jerome Powell as chair next year, said Friday.
- "I strongly believe in the operational independence of monetary policy as a wise political economy decision. And I believe that Fed independence is chiefly up to the Fed," Warsh said in a speech at a Group of Thirty event on the sidelines of the IMF meetings. "Institutional drift has coincided with the Fed’s failure to satisfy an essential part of its statutory remit, price stability. It has also contributed to an explosion of federal spending." His speech made no mention of Trump's tariffs or the appropriate monetary policy to deal with them.
- He said the ideas of data dependence and forward guidance widely adopted by Fed officials are not especially useful and might even be counterproductive.
"We should care little about two numbers to the right of the decimal point in the latest government release. Breathlessly awaiting trailing data from stale national accounts -- subject to significant, subsequent revision -- is evidence of false precision and analytic complacency," he said.
"Near-term forecasting is another distracting Fed preoccupation. Economists are not immune to the frailties of human nature. Once policymakers reveal their economic forecast, they can become prisoners of their own words. Fed leaders would be well-served to skip opportunities to share their latest musings."
