ECB: Mortgage Rates To Drag On Consumption Until At Least 2030 – ECB Staff

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/28 $Benchmark Alphabet 4pt 5Y +32, 10Y +47, 30Y +62, 40Y +70; also in Euro: 4Y, 8Y, 12Y, 20Y and 29Y. 
• 04/28 $1.125B #Consumer Energy $500M +5Y +67, $625M 10Y +87
• 04/28 $1.1B #Northern States Power $600M 10Y +83, $500M 30Y +98
• 04/28 $700M #Posco Holdings $400M 5Y +137.5, $300M 10Y +157.5
• 04/28 $700M *Kookmin Bank $400M 3Y +77.5, $300M 5Y +82.5
• 04/28 $Benchmark Keurig Dr Pepper 1.5Y SOFR+58, 3Y +68, 5Y +83, 10Y +98
• 04/28 $Benchmark Philip Morris 3Y +58, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75, 10Y +93
• 04/28 $Benchmark CBRE Services 5Y +120, 10Y +135
• 04/28 $Benchmark Procter & Gamble 5Y +55a, 10Y +70a
• 04/28 $Benchmark General Dynamics 10Y +110a
• 04/28 $Benchmark World Bank 3Y +38a, 7Y +57a
• 04/28 $Benchmark Colgate Palmolive 5Y +60a
• 04/28 $Benchmark DR Horton +5Y +130a
• 04/28 $Benchmark Goldman Sachs investor calls
• Expected Tuesday
• 04/29 $Benchmark KFW 5Y SOFR+45a
• 04/29 $Benchmark Swedish Export Credit Corp 3Y SOFR+48a

Spot Gold has recovered well through the European afternoon, with the USD faltering and global equity futures rolling over. Gold is now +0.4% on the session at $3330/oz. The move away from the April 22 all-time high of $3,500.10 is considered corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. With the positioning backdrop also cleaner, gold stands to benefit well from any re-intensification of tariff or geopolitical tensions. 

• Although US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has issued a statement on social media touting "substantive movement" towards trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, underlying uncertainty surrounding any US policy action in the current environment remains high.
• Key support in Gold remains the 20-day EMA at $3219.4, with shallower pullbacks considered corrective.
• The latest CFTC COT report, covering data up to April 22, indicated a 27k pullback in non-commercial net longs – a function of both reduced long contracts and increased shorts.  Net longs now stand at 175k contracts, with MNI’s 52-week Z score at a multi-year low of -2.6.  

We've just published our preview of the April Eurozone flash inflation round - DOWNLOAD FULL PDF HERE

Energy Pullback To Outweigh Potential Services Re-Acceleration

• The Eurozone April flash inflation round sees Spain kick off proceedings on Tuesday (April 29), before France, Germany, and Italy follow on Wednesday (April 30). With much of Europe closed for Labour Day on Thursday (May 1), the Dutch and Eurozone-wide releases come on Friday (May 2).
• MNI consensus is for the core rate to accelerate slightly to 2.5% (vs 2.4% prior), with the late timing of Easter potentially adding upside risks to travel-related services components. However, a pullback in energy prices is expected to more than offset this dynamic, helping headline HICP ease to 2.1% Y/Y (vs 2.2% prior).
• More stringent-than-expected US tariff policy and a dovish April decision has resulted in a dovish tilt for near-term ECB policy expectations. A 25bps cut at the next meeting in June is now fully priced in ECB-dated OIS, and there is 64bps of easing priced through December. That’s almost a full 25bp cut more than what was priced at the beginning of this month, prior to the US’s reciprocal tariff announcements.