AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6307 @ 16:09 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 0.6297/6187 Intraday low / Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD has traded higher this week. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A stronger recovery would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below Tuesday's 0.6187 low is required to reinstate a bear threat and open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low.
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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Options Roundup: Heavy Treasury Put Trade
Heavy SOFR & Treasury option volumes tallied Wednesday, leaning towards downside Tsy puts in 2s, 5s and 10s (over 114k TYH5 109 puts for example) while heavy SOFR options were more evenly paired. Reminder, March options expire on Feb 21, March futures roll to June at the end of the month. Underlying futures drift higher, at/near overnight highs w/ TYH5 highest since December 18. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 gain slightly vs. this morning's levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -4.2bp (-4.1bp), May'25 at -11.9bp (-11.2bp), Jun'25 at -22.7bp (-22.1bp), Jul'25 at -29.1bp (-28.6bp).
- Treasury Options:
- over +114,000 TYH5 109 puts, from 18 to 26 (expire Feb 21) open interest 66,520 coming into the session
- -10,000 TYH5 109/110 strangles, 50 appr half vs. 109-13/0.05%
- over 24,000 TUH5 102.5/102.75 2x1 put spds ref 102-27.88 to -28
- over 15,400 USH5 110 puts, 3 last
- over 7,500 USH5 112 puts, 12 last
- over 4,000 TYH5 107.75/108.25/108.5/109 put condors ref 109-16
- over 17,000 TYH5 109 puts, 26 last ref 109-15.5
- 3,000 TYJ5 109.5 calls, 57 ref 109-14
- 2,000 TYJ5 114/116 call spds
- 1,800 TYH5 110.5/112.5 1x2 call spds ref 109-13.5
- 5,000 TYH5 106/107 put spds, 2 ref 109-13.5
- 3,000 TYH5 110.5 calls, 14 last ref 109-12.5
- 1,500 FVH5 105/105.5/106 put trees ref 106-22.75
- over 10,000 wk1 FV 106/106.25 put spds ref 106-22.75 (exp Friday)
- 4,500 wk2 FV 107/107.75 call spds ref 106-20.75 (exp Feb 14)
- over 5,300 Wednesday weekly 10Y 109 puts, 4 (expire today)
- Several wk1 TY put flows via outright, trees & spds, total volumes so far:
- over 12,800 wk1 TY 108 puts; over 19,200 wk1 TY 108.5 puts; over 13,000 wk1 TY 109 puts
- SOFR Options:
- +10,000 SFRN5 95.56/95.75/95.93 put flys 5.0 ref 96.04
- -3,000 SFRH6 96.62 straddles, 37.5
- +5,000 0QJ5 95.62/95.87/96.00 put trees, 0.5 ref 96.185
- -4,000 0QH5 96.31 calls, 8.0 ref 96.155/0.36%
- +4,000 0QH5 96.06/96.31 1x2 call spds, 3.0 ref 96.16
- +10,000 0QH5 97.00/3QH5 96.87 call spds, cab net steepener
- +20,000 0QU5 97.12/98.12 call spds, 6.5 ref 96.15
- +10,000 SFRU5 96.62/97.62 call spds, 5.75 ref 96.015
- -5,000 SFRM5 95.87/96.12 call spds, 6.75 vs. 95.915/0.54%
- +10,000 SFRZ5 95.75/96.00 put spds vs. 5,000 96.50 calls, 1.75 net
- -4,000 SFRN5 95.62/96.37 strangles, 13.0 ref 96.035
- +5,000 SFRZ5 94.87/95.12/95.37/95.62 put condors, 2.25 ref 96.125
- 2,300 SFRK5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors ref 95.90
- 6,000 0QH5 95.50/95.81/96.00 broken put trees ref 96.14
- 2,000 SFRM5 96.12/96.18 call spds ref 95.895
- 1,500 0QM5/0QU5 96.75/97.25 call spd spd vs.
- 1,500 3QM5/3QU5 96.75/97.25 call spd spd
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late 10Y Ultra-Bond Sale
- -3,500 UXYH5 112-21.5, post time bid at 1439:00ET, DV01 $309,000. The 10Y ultra contract trades 112-20.5 last (+25.5).
EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 161.90 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 160.70 High Feb 4
- PRICE: 159.21 @ 16:12 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 158.50 Low Feb 5
- SUP 2: 156.99 Low Dec 4
- SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
A bear threat in EURJPY remains present. The cross traded to a fresh short-term cycle low Monday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 30 last year. An important retracement point at 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 156.18, the Dec 3 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.90, the 50-day EMA.
