MNI US OPEN - Trump Urges End of Filibuster to Reopen Gov't
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- TRUMP URGES END OF FILIBUSTER TO SMOOTH REOPENING OF GOVERNMENT
- CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI SLOWS IN OCTOBER, HITS SIX-MONTH LOW
- PCE DATA TO REMAIN UNRELEASED, LEAVING MNI CHICAGO PMI THE DATA HIGHLIGHT
- AMAZON SHARES SURGE IN LATEST SIGN OF AI CLOUD DEMAND
- TOKYO CPI BACKS UP CASE FOR BOJ HIKES
Figure 1: Tokyo CPI ex-food & energy re-accelerates, backing up case for BoJ hikes
NEWS
US (WSJ): Trump Urges Republicans to End the Filibuster to Reopen Government
President Trump urged Senate Republicans to end the filibuster, the longstanding rule that requires 60 votes to advance most legislation, in order to reopen the government without the support of Democrats. “It is now time for the Republicans to play their ‘TRUMP CARD,’ and go for what is called the Nuclear Option — Get rid of the Filibuster, and get rid of it, NOW!” he wrote on Truth Social, while criticizing Democrats’ healthcare demands at the center of the current impasse. Trump said that Democrats would end the filibuster if they ever won back the Senate, so Republicans should go ahead and do it now.
ECB (MNI): Forecaster EZ Price Outlooks Little Changed - ECB
Economists and analysts have upped their outlook for eurozone inflation for 2025, but their views remain unchanged for 2026 and 2027, the ECB's Q4 Survey of Professional Forecasters showed on Friday. Inflation was seen at 2.1% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. These represented a slight upward revision of 0.1 percentage points for 2025 but no change for 2026 and 2027. Longer-term HICP inflation expectations for 2030 were unchanged at 2.0%, the survey showed.
UK (FT): Full abolition of two-child benefit cap not expected in Budget
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will stop short of fully scrapping the two-child benefit cap hated by many Labour MPs in next month’s Budget, according to people briefed on her plans. Reeves is expected to announce measures to tackle child poverty on November 26 but Labour MPs concede that finding £3.5bn to abolish the two-child limit against such a grim fiscal backdrop would be tough.
US/TAIWAN (BBG): Taiwan’s Trade Rep. Held Talks With US Official During APEC: CNA
Taiwan’s trade representative Yang Jen-ni held talks on tariff issues with deputy US trade representative Rick Switzer during the APEC ministerial meeting, Central News Agency reports, citing information from Taiwan’s delegation.
CHINA (BBG): Pan Says PBOC to Strengthen Role in Policy Interest Rate: Report
PBOC’s Governor Pan Gongsheng says the Chinese central bank will strengthen role in guiding policy rate and narrow the short-term interest rate corridor, the Securities Times reports, citing his comments in an article published recently about the next five-year plan.
CHINA (MNI): China CNY500 Billion Policy Instruments Disbursed
China has fully disbursed the recently announced CNY500 billion of new policy-based financial instruments, supporting more than 2,300 projects with a total investment of about CNY7 trillion, Li Chao, deputy director at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), told reporters on Friday.
JAPAN (MNI): BOJ To Focus On Evolving Prices And Spending
The full text of the Bank of Japan’s October Outlook Report warned that food prices remain highly sensitive to weather, global commodity markets and exchange-rate movements, requiring close monitoring for their impact on private consumption. The warning could undermine the BOJ’s baseline view that consumption will return to a moderate increasing trend as food price gains slow.
JAPAN (MNI): BOJ Warns Services Prices May Not Rise As Expected
Wage increases are being passed on to selling prices more easily than before, although labour costs are not significantly pushing up output prices in non-manufacturing sectors, the Bank of Japan’s full Outlook Report showed Friday.
CORPORATE (BBG): Amazon’s Cloud Unit Posts Fastest Growth Since 2022 on AI Push
Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud unit posted the strongest growth rate in almost three years, reassuring investors who were concerned that the largest seller of rented computing power was losing ground to rivals. The shares surged. Amazon Web Services reported third-quarter revenue of $33 billion, an increase of 20% from the prior year and the biggest year-over-year rise since the end of 2022. Analysts, on average, estimated 18% growth.
DATA
FRANCE OCT FLASH CPI +0.1% M/M, +1.0% Y/Y
MNI: FRANCE SEP PPI -0.2% M/M, +0.1% Y/Y (VS -0.2% M/M, +0.1%
MNI: SWISS SEP RETAIL SALES +0.6% M/M, +1.5% Y/Y (VS -0.2% M/M)
MNI: GERMANY SEP RETAIL SALES +0.2% M/M, +0.2% Y/Y (VS -0.5%)
China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell by 0.8 points to 49.0 in October from September, hitting a six-month low and staying below the breakeven 50 mark for the seventh month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday.
China’s construction business activity index, a key sub-index of the non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), fell to 49.1% in October, down 0.2 percentage points from September, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Friday.
The year-on-year rise in Tokyo’s core consumer price index accelerated to 2.8% in October from 2.5% in September, marking the 12th consecutive month above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed Friday.
JAPAN (MNI): Japan Sept Factor Output Hits 1st Rise in 3 Months
Japan’s industrial production rose 2.2% m/m in September, the first increase in three months following August’s 1.5% decline, led by higher output of production machinery, though automobile production growth slowed, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed Friday.
BONDS: Support In Bunds Remains Intact; Gilt Month-end Eyed
Support at the 50-day EMA (129.12) remains intact for Bund futures, meaning the short-term bear cycle that started on October 17 is still considered corrective. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Bunds are -11 ticks at 129.25, off today’s 129.16 low.
- Gilt futures underperform Bunds marginally on the day (-20 ticks at 93.52), but still hold onto the bulk of last week’s inflation data-inspired gains. Note that the Gilt month-end extension is expected to be large in October, which may provide some support for the contract into today’s close.
- In cash, the 10-year Gilt/Bund spread is little changed at ~177.8bps, close to year-to-date lows. The German and UK curves are biased slightly steeper.
- Eurozone flash October HICP is due at 1000GMT. MNI tracks headline inflation at 2.1-2.2% Y/Y, so risks to consensus (2.1%) are tilted slightly to the upside. Following the steady signals at yesterday’s ECB meeting, the data is unlikely to have a material market impact.
- There has been plenty of ECBspeak this morning, with the usual nuances in views across the dovish/hawkish end of the Governing Council spectrum.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are little changed on the session.
- There are no EGB major ratings updates scheduled after the close today.
FOREX: NZD Under Pressure Friday, JPY and GBP Consolidating Moves Lower
- USDJPY stands just 20 pips below yesterday's 154.45 highs, recovering from an overnight pullback driven by firmer than expected Tokyo CPI and Japan Industrial Production data. Bullish conditions remain intact following the pair's impressive 4.7% gains since new PM Takaichi's LDP leadership win, a theme that extended sharply following the BOJ on Thursday. Commentary on recent exchange rate moves was in line with previous rhetoric, however, further upward pressure on USDJPY may raise concern amongst BoJ officials.
- Clearance of yesterday's highs in USDJPY would refocus attention on 154.80, the Feb 12 high. Pullbacks would be considered technically corrective at this juncture, with first important support much lower at 151.60, the 20-day EMA.
- GBPUSD remains in a position of weakness as Powell's relatively hawkish remarks during Wednesday's FOMC press conference and UK fiscal developments continue to significantly weigh on the pair. UK Chancellor Reeves' situation appears stable for now after her having to backpay some rental license fees, however, GBPUSD continues to test the key breakout level below 1.3142, multiple daily lows on the chart. A weekly close would strengthen the bearish bias, with attention turning to 1.3041, the Apr 14 low.
- Intraday weakness for NZD stands out on Friday, pressured by comments from RBNZ committee member Prassanna Gai, who said that global shocks appear to have offset some of the monetary easing that has taken place since August 2024. NZDUSD trades within 40 pips of cycle lows, located at 0.5683. AUDNZD has also made three-week highs, hovering just below 1.1450.
- Eurozone HICP is scheduled for release soon after national-level data implied slight upside risks for the print. Canadian GDP and the MNI Chicago PMI will follow later. Fed’s Logan and Hammack are on the speaker schedule.
EQUITIES: Earnings Season Concludes; Reports Seen Supportive of Headline Indices
The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. This week’s fresh cycle highs reinforces a bull theme and the move higher maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 5777.41, a Fibonacci projection. First support lies at 5646.82, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The fresh cycle high this week confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6974.04 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6748.48, the 20-day EMA. Key pivot support lies at 6783.25, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 1085.73 pts or +2.12% at 52411.34 and the TOPIX ended 31.04 pts higher or +0.94% at 3331.83.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 32.111 pts or -0.81% at 3954.79 and the HANG SENG ended 376.04 pts lower or -1.43% at 25906.65.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 78.84 pts or -0.33% at 24042.58, FTSE 100 lower by 32.75 pts or -0.34% at 9727.45, CAC 40 down 5.65 pts or -0.07% at 8152.04 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 8.76 pts or -0.15% at 5690.78.
- Dow Jones mini up 16 pts or +0.03% at 47691, S&P 500 mini up 44.75 pts or +0.65% at 6900.25, NASDAQ mini up 304.25 pts or +1.18% at 26187.
COMMODITIES: Gold Off Lows, But Downcycle Intact
Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear break of it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. A fresh cycle low this week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3853.2. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- WTI Crude down $0.13 or -0.21% at $60.46
- Natural Gas up $0.13 or +3.36% at $4.093
- Gold spot down $12.71 or -0.32% at $4016.57
- Copper down $2.45 or -0.48% at $508
- Silver down $0.01 or -0.02% at $49.0213
- Platinum down $10.89 or -0.68% at $1597.89
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 31/10/2025 | 0930/0930 |  GB | Blue Book / Pink Book | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** |  EU | EZ HICP Flash |
| 31/10/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Flash |
| 31/10/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** |  IT | Italy Flash Inflation |
| 31/10/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Flash |
| 31/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 31/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 31/10/2025 | 1330/0930 |  US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 31/10/2025 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1600/1200 | US | Fed's Beth Hammack, Raphael Bostic | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 31/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 31/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
