COMMODITIES: Gold Off Lows, But Downcycle Intact
Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear break of it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low. A fresh cycle low this week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3853.2. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- WTI Crude down $0.13 or -0.21% at $60.46
- Natural Gas up $0.13 or +3.36% at $4.093
- Gold spot down $12.71 or -0.32% at $4016.57
- Copper down $2.45 or -0.48% at $508
- Silver down $0.01 or -0.02% at $49.0213
- Platinum down $10.89 or -0.68% at $1597.89
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GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 1.125% Sep-35 Linker
| 1.125% Sep-35 Linker | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP1.60bln | GBP1.60bln |
| Avg yield | 1.673% | 1.728% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.09x | 3.10x |
| Avg price | 94.983 | 94.440 |
| Pre-auction mid | 94.810 | 94.413 |
| Previous date | 19-Aug-25 |
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Unrounded 2dp Eurozone HICP
- Headline 2.23% (2.2% MNI median ahead of national data, 2.04% prior)
- Core 2.35% (2.3% MNI median, 2.27% prior)
- Services 3.23% (3.2% MNI median, 3.1% prior)
- NEIG 0.78% (0.7% MNI median, 0.78% prior)
- FAT 3.04% (3.2% MNI median, 3.19% prior)
- Energy -0.4% (-0.4% MNI median, -1.97% prior)
EQUITY OPTIONS: Large Stoxx600 rolling Put
SXXP (19th June) 430p, vs (18/12/26) 440p, bought the 2026 for 4.1 in ~9.25k.
