BONDS: Support In Bunds Remains Intact; Gilt Month-end Eyed
Oct-31 09:40
Support at the 50-day EMA (129.12) remains intact for Bund futures, meaning the short-term bear cycle that started on October 17 is still considered corrective. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Bunds are -11 ticks at 129.25, off today’s 129.16 low.
- Gilt futures underperform Bunds marginally on the day (-20 ticks at 93.52), but still hold onto the bulk of last week’s inflation data-inspired gains. Note that the Gilt month-end extension is expected to be large in October, which may provide some support for the contract into today’s close.
- In cash, the 10-year Gilt/Bund spread is little changed at ~177.8bps, close to year-to-date lows. The German and UK curves are biased slightly steeper.
- Eurozone flash October HICP is due at 1000GMT. MNI tracks headline inflation at 2.1-2.2% Y/Y, so risks to consensus (2.1%) are tilted slightly to the upside. Following the steady signals at yesterday’s ECB meeting, the data is unlikely to have a material market impact.
- There has been plenty of ECBspeak this morning, with the usual nuances in views across the dovish/hawkish end of the Governing Council spectrum.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are little changed on the session.
- There are no EGB major ratings updates scheduled after the close today.
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GREECE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 13-week GTB
Oct-01 09:38
| Type | 13-week GTB |
| Maturity | Jan 2, 2026 |
| Amount | E500mln |
| Target | E500mln |
| Previous | E500mln |
| Avg yield | 1.78% |
| Previous | 1.76% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.99x |
| Previous | 2.00x |
| Previous date | Jul 30, 2025 |
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: 2.60% Aug-35 Bund
Oct-01 09:32
| 2.60% Aug-35 Bund | Previous | |
| ISIN | DE000BU2Z056 | |
| Total sold | E5bln | E5bln |
| Allotted | E3.807bln | E3.81bln |
| Avg yield | 2.72% | 2.77% |
| Bid-to-offer | 0.94x | 1.10x |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.23x | 1.45x |
| Avg Price | 98.93 | 98.51 |
| Low Price | 98.92 | 98.50 |
| Pre-auction mid | 98.896 | 98.467 |
| Previous date | 03-Sep-25 |
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Oct-01 09:29
- EUR/USD: Oct02 $1.1695-00(E1.5bln), $1.1750(E1.1bln), $1.1785-90(E2.8bln); Oct03 $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1845-55(E1.9bln), $1.1875(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct02 Y147.95-00($1.6bln), Y149.50($1.0bln); Oct06 Y147.00($1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Oct02 $0.6600(A$1.7bln); Oct03 $0.6600(A$1.5bln); Oct06 $0.6700(A$1.1bln)
- NZD/USD: Oct03 $0.6450(N$1.2bln)
