MNI US OPEN - Miran Nomination Hearing Expected Next Week

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• SENATE BANKING PANEL TO HOLD MIRAN HEARING NEXT WEEK: POLITICO
• TRUMP'S DOUBLING OF INDIA TARIFFS TO 50% TAKES EFFECT
• POLL SHOWS 63% BACK DISSOLVING FRENCH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY & SNAP ELECTIONS
• AUSTRALIA MONTHLY INFLATION ACCELERATES MORE THAN EXPECTED

Figure 1: German IFO Employment Barometer Deteriorates in August

NEWS

FED (Politico): Trump’s Fed Fight Poised to Crash Into Capitol Hill

President Donald Trump’s rapidly escalating war with the Federal Reserve is set to become one of the first high-profile clashes in Congress when lawmakers return from their August recess. Trump’s move to fire Fed Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook late Monday is now looming large over a Senate Republican push to confirm Stephen Miran to a separate Fed seat. Miran’s nomination hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee is expected next week, according to two people with knowledge of the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss unannounced plans.

FED (WSJ): Trump Weighs Quickly Announcing Nominee to Replace Lisa Cook on Fed Board

President Trump has told advisers that he wants to move quickly to announce a nominee to replace Lisa Cook on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, according to people familiar with the matter. Trump said he might appoint Stephen Miran, a close economic adviser, to replace Cook. Earlier this month, the president nominated Miran to fill a different seat on the Fed’s board. Among the other potential candidates Trump has discussed, according to some of the people: former World Bank Group President David Malpass, a close ally of the president who has criticized the Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates. Malpass could be chosen to fill the other open Fed board seat if Miran is nominated to replace Cook.

US/INDIA (BBG): Trump Slaps India With 50% Tariffs, Upending Ties With Modi

President Donald Trump imposed a crushing 50% tariff on Indian goods to punish the country for buying Russian oil, upending a decades-long push by Washington to forge closer ties with New Delhi. The new tariffs, the highest in Asia, took effect at 12:01 a.m. in Washington on Wednesday, doubling the existing 25% duty on Indian exports. The levies will hit more than 55% of goods shipped to the US — India’s biggest market — and hurt labor-intensive industries like textiles and jewelry the most. Key exports like electronics and pharmaceuticals are exempt, sparing Apple Inc.’s massive new factory investments in India for now.

US/RUSSIA (WSJ): Exxon Held Secret Talks With Rosneft About Going Back to Russia

In secret talks with Russia’s biggest state energy company this year, a senior Exxon Mobil executive discussed returning to the massive Sakhalin project if the two governments gave the green light as part of a Ukraine peace process, said people familiar with the discussions. Such is the sensitivity that only a handful of people at Exxon knew the talks had taken place. One of the U.S. oil major’s top executives, Senior Vice President Neil Chapman, led the talks on the Exxon side.

FRANCE (MNI): 63% Back Dissolving National Assembly & Snap Elections - Poll

The latest polling from Ifop (carried out on 26 Aug, after PM Francois Bayrou's announcement of a confidence vote in his gov't) found a large majority of respondents in favour of the dissolution of the National Assembly and snap legislative elections. In total, 63% of respondents favoured dissolution, with 33% "absolutely" in favour. This represents an increase in overall support for dissolution from 41% in June and 50% in July.

UK (MNI): Ofgem Price Cap Rise Larger Than Expected

This morning saw Ofgem confirm that "between 1 October and 31 December 2025, the energy price cap is set at 1,755 per year for a typical household who use electricity and gas and pay by Direct Debit. This is an increase of 2% compared to the cap set between 1 July to 30 September 2025 (1,720)". The new price cap is above the 1,737.07 projection (~+1%) provided by Cornwall Insight, which is closely watched when it comes to gauging expectations.

CHINA (MNI): China to Launch New Measures for Service Consumption

MNI (Beijing) China will introduce measures to expand service consumption in September, Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce told reporters on Wednesday.
Authorities will coordinate fiscal and financial policies and improve service supply to stimulate additional spending, said Sheng. To address the insufficient supply of high-quality services, officials will encourage foreign investment in the sector, including areas like telecommunications, healthcare and education, according to Sheng.

S.KOREA (BBG): South Korea Mulls Dollar Bond Sale After Lee Meeting With Trump

South Korea is considering a sale of dollar bonds, people familiar with the matter said, in what would be a test of global investor sentiment after President Lee Jae Myung’s first in-person meeting with President Donald Trump helped defuse tensions. The government sent out a request for proposals to local and international banks this week for a potential issuance in the US currency and yen that may take place in coming months, according to the people. The sovereign, which tapped the euro bond market in June, could sell as much as about $1.8 billion of notes, based on parliamentary approvals.

DATA

GERMANY DATA (MNI): IFO Employment Barometer Deteriorates in August

The IFO employment barometer decreased marginally to 93.8 points in August, from 94.0 in July. "The labour market is still stuck in crisis [...] The stagnating economy is making companies act cautiously when it comes to personnel planning", IFO comments. In industry the indicator rose to its highest since August 2024 (-17.1 vs -18.1 July). "although the barometer rose again, the signs are nevertheless still pointing to job cuts, albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous month. In all key industrial sectors, there were more layoffs than new hires."

GERMANY DATA (MNI): Consumer Climate Sees Third Consecutive Decline in September

• GERMANY SEP GFK CONSUMER CLIMATE -23.6

The German GfK consumer climate fell for the third consecutive time in the September advance reading, to -23.6 points, coming in below consensus which was for a -21.5 reading. The August print was revised slightly lower to -21.7. "The sharp decline in income expectations played a major role in this month's decline. By contrast, the propensity to save, which fell by only 0.6 points to 15.8 points, had only a marginal impact on the consumer climate this month. [...] A key reason for the noticeable decline in income expectations is likely to be growing concerns about job security."

MNI CHINA MONEY MARKET INDEX: PBOC Easing Expectations Fall

MNI (Beijing) Chinese interbank traders see a lower chance of further monetary easing in the rest of 2025 than they did in July as economic growth continues to be solid, and expect more upwards pressure on bond yields as funds are lured into a rising stock market, MNI’s China Money Market Index for August indicated. The PBOC’s seven-day repo rate sub-index fell to 54.3, the lowest this year, with 91.5% of participants expecting the PBOC would hold its policy rate stable in the coming month, and only 8.5% of traders seeing a cut, the lowest proportion so far this year. 

CHINA DATA (MNI): China Port Cargo Accelerates in July - Ministry

MNI (Beijing) China’s port cargo throughput reached 1.54 billion tonnes in July, up 6.9% y/y, 2.2 percentage points faster than June, the Ministry of Transport said on Wednesday. Domestic and foreign trade port throughput grew 7.6% and 5.5% y/y, marking a 1.5 and 3.6 percentage point rise from the previous month. Container throughput reached 29.96 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), up 2.7% y/y.

AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): Aussie Monthly CPI Rises in July

• AUSTRALIA MONTHLY JUL CPI 0.9% MM, 2.8% YY

Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index rose 2.8% y/y in July, while the trimmed mean accelerated 60bp to 2.7%, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday.
“This is the highest annual inflation rate since July 2024, following several months of easing inflation,” said Michelle Marquardt, head of prices statistics at the ABS. The Reserve Bank of Australia views the monthly indicator as volatile and relies more on the quarterly measure to guide policy. Housing (+3.6%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.0%), and alcohol and tobacco (+6.5%) were the largest contributors to the rise.

AUSTRALIA DATA (MNI): SEEK Advertised Salary Increases Moderated Further in July

SEEK reported that July advertised salaries rose 0.2% m/m and 3.3% y/y, the slowest annual rate since July 2021 and down from June's 3.5% but still above inflation. It doesn't appear to have been impacted by the July 1 3.5% increase in the minimum wage with 3-month momentum moderating. SEEK salaries have been trending lower since they peaked at 4.9% in September 2023 and signal that wages remain contained as lower inflation expectations and less tight labour market conditions feed into wage demands.

FOREX: EUR Softer as French, Dutch Political Risk Remains Key Driver

• Datapoints are few and far between Wednesday - and it's a similar case for both the central bank speaker schedule as well as Trump's official timetable, which may keep headline risk subdued throughout today. As a result, focus may remain on political machinations in Paris as the government look increasingly fragile. French bonds continue to trade sensitively and underperform broader European markets - highlighting the risks to the French economy (and thereby the EUR) from any decrease in fiscal credibility from the French government.
• While EURUSD weakness on Wednesday has primarily been driven by broader dollar dynamics, the French political situation will be adding weight. The latest polling from Ifop found a large majority of respondents in favour of the dissolution of the National Assembly and snap legislative elections. In total, 63% of respondents favoured dissolution. Data from Polymarket shows bettors assigning a 20% implied probability that fresh elections are called by 15 September, rising to 41% by year-end.
• Accordingly, the wider French-German 10y yield spread remains a solid proxy for European political risk, and is worth monitoring for intraday inflection points in the single currency.
• The USD Index is firmer within the recent range. Should prices close at current or higher levels today,  it could mark the beginning of an upside correction, marking a break above the downtrendline drawn off the early August highs on the 15min candle chart.
• NZD is worse-off against all others in G10. NZD/USD is back below the 200-dma of 0.5832, but it's the 0.5800 that should provide firmer support on any further phases of weakness. Clearance here puts prices at the lowest since April, and another spell of soft equities could trigger a test. NVIDIA earnings are due after-market, and could have a sizeable impact on headline indices. 

BONDS: Firmer & Flatter as Equities Soften

Bonds have rallied this morning, with European equities on the defensive and no meaningful concession in the lead up to 7-Year German supply.

• Bund futures have registered the highest level of the week. Bulls have pushed the contract through initial lower tier resistance points. switching focus to the nearby 50-day EMA (129.78). A break above there would heighten the chances of a bullish reversal.
• German yields are 1-3bp lower, curve bull flattens. 5s30s back from yesterday’s fresh cycle closing high, but still comfortably above 100bp.
• EGB spreads to Bunds little changed to ~1.5bp wider given the broader risk aversion.
• OATs widen the most, spreads testing yesterday’s intraday high, last ~78.5bp, while 10-Year BTP/OAT narrows to ~5bp.
• ECB-dated OIS subjected to modest dovish repricing alongside the rally in wider bonds, with ~20bp of easing showing through June ’26.
• Gilts off early session lows given the cues from wider core global FI.
• Futures registered fresh cycle lows before bouncing. Bulls need to retake 91.24 to start turning the tide in their favour.
• Yields ~1.5-3.0bp lower across the curve, light flattening bias on the day.
• Well defined yield resistance points intact across the curve.
• 3-Year gilt supply went fairly smoothly, although the cover ratio moderated vs. prev. auction.
• The minutes of the latest DMO consultation with market participants showed ongoing preference for a reduction in WAM.
• GBP STIR pricing still at the hawkish of the recent range, showing ~10bp of easing through year-end.
• Little in the way of tier 1 macro releases scheduled for today, leaving focus on headlines and cross-market flow.

EQUITIES: Dominant Uptrend in E-Mini S&P Intact, Contract Close to Recent Highs

The trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high is for now, considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 5374.47, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. Resistance to watch is 5522.00, the Aug 22 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at  6311.73, the 50-day EMA.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 125.87 pts or +0.3% at 42520.27 and the TOPIX ended 2.25 pts lower or -0.07% at 3069.74.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 68.032 pts or -1.76% at 3800.35 and the HANG SENG ended 323.16 pts lower or -1.27% at 25201.76.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 84.41 pts or -0.35% at 24067.76, FTSE 100 higher by 12.21 pts or +0.13% at 9277.92, CAC 40 up 13.66 pts or +0.18% at 7723.47 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 3.93 pts or -0.07% at 5379.75.
• Dow Jones mini down 11 pts or -0.02% at 45478, S&P 500 mini down 2.5 pts or -0.04% at 6480, NASDAQ mini down 11.5 pts or -0.05% at 23581.

Time: 10:00 BST

COMMODITIES: Medium-Term Trend Condition for Gold Remains Bullish

A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Gold traded higher Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A stronger resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. First key support to watch is $3268.2, the Jul 30 low. 

• WTI Crude down $0.23 or -0.36% at $63.01
• Natural Gas up $0 or +0.11% at $2.72
• Gold spot down $9.55 or -0.28% at $3384.05
• Copper down $4.5 or -0.99% at $449
• Silver down $0.23 or -0.6% at $38.3795
• Platinum down $10.8 or -0.8% at $1344.75

Time: 10:00 BST

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
27/08/2025	1000/1100	**	GB	CBI Distributive Trades
27/08/2025	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
27/08/2025	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
27/08/2025	1430/1030	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
27/08/2025	1530/1130	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
27/08/2025	1700/1300	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
28/08/2025	0130/1130	*	AU	Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure
28/08/2025	0700/0900	**	SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
28/08/2025	0700/0900	***	CH	GDP
28/08/2025	0700/0900	**	CH	KOF Economic Barometer
28/08/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	M3
28/08/2025	0800/1000	**	IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
28/08/2025	0800/1000	**	IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
28/08/2025	0900/1100	*	EU	Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment
28/08/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
28/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
28/08/2025	1230/0830	*	CA	Current account
28/08/2025	1230/0830	*	CA	Payroll employment
28/08/2025	1230/0830	***	US	GDP / PCE Quarterly
28/08/2025	1400/1000	**	US	NAR Pending Home Sales
28/08/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
28/08/2025	1500/1100	**	US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
28/08/2025	1530/1130	**	US	US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result
28/08/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result
28/08/2025	1700/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
28/08/2025	2200/1800		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller