FRANCE: Poll-63% Back Dissolving National Assembly & Snap Elections
Aug-27 07:36
The latest polling from Ifop (carried out on 26 Aug, after PM Francois Bayrou's announcement of a confidence vote in his gov't) found a large majority of respondents in favour of the dissolution of the National Assembly and snap legislative elections. In total, 63% of respondents favoured dissolution, with 33% "absolutely" in favour. This represents an increase in overall support for dissolution from 41% in June and 50% in July.
- Unsurprisingly, those in favour of dissolution are largely supporters of opposition parties. Among far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) supporters, 86% are in favour of snap elections, as are 75% of those who vote for the far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed, LFI). Only 36% of supporters of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Rennaissance support snap elections.
- In terms of whether respondents believe President Macron will dissolve the National Assembly 49% say they think he will, 51% believe he will not. The proportion of those that think the president will call snap elections has increased from 30% in June and 34% in July.
- Seventy-four per cent of respondents believe the defeat of Bayrou in the upcoming 8 Sep confidence vote would be a sign France is "ungovernable". A total of 68% believe if snap elections take place and once again there is no clear governable majority, Macron would have to resign as president, but only 50% believe that LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon was right to move to dismiss Macron.
- Data from Polymarket shows bettors assigning a 20% implied probability that fresh elections are called by 15 September, rising to 41% by year-end.
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