MNI US OPEN - China Exports Record First Drop in 8 Months
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- CHINA'S EXPORTS UNEXPECTEDLY DROP FOR FIRST TIME IN 8 MONTHS
- FED'S WILLIAMS SAYS NOT LONG BEFORE RESERVES ARE AMPLE
- KAZAKS SAYS ECB IN GOOD PLACE BUT NOT COMPLACENT - MNI INTERVIEW
- RACHEL REEVES PLANS TO RAISE INCOME TAX IN UPCOMING BUDGET - THE TIMES
Figure 1: AUD/NZD surges to new multi-year high
Source: MNI, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
NEWS
FED (MNI): Fed's Williams - Not Long Before Reserves Are Ample
It won't be long before the reserves in the U.S. banking system reach an "ample" level, at which point the Federal Reserve will begin gradual purchases of assets to keep up with growth in its liabilities, New York Fed President John Williams said Friday. "Based on recent sustained repo market pressures and other growing signs of reserves moving from abundant to ample, I expect that it will not be long before we reach ample reserves," he said in remarks prepared for an ECB conference in Frankfurt.
US/CHINA (BBG): Nvidia CEO Says No Plans to Ship Blackwell AI Chips to China
Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said his company isn’t in active discussions to sell its Blackwell AI chips to Chinese firms, waving off speculation it’s trying to engineer a return to the world’s largest semiconductor market. Huang, who arrived in Taiwan Friday ahead of meetings with longtime partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., took the opportunity also to clarify recent comments about the US-China AI race. The Nvidia honcho caused a stir in an interview this week with the Financial Times, when he was quoted as saying “China will win” that competition. Huang explained he merely intended to point out the Asian country’s prowess in the fledgling technology.
US/CHINA (BBG): US States Seek Own China Ties as Trade Uncertainty Persists
As US-China relations lurch between escalation and detente, some local American officials are pursuing their own diplomacy to secure access to the world’s second-largest market. Driven by fears of losing exports due to the geopolitical rivalry, regional leaders including those from the states of Washington and Oregon have visited China in recent weeks and met with Chinese officials. They aim to preserve local jobs by maintaining ties now, betting on an eventual rebound or hedging against future fallout.
US/IRAN (BBG): Trump Says He Would Be Open to Removing Sanctions on Iran
“Iran has been asking if the sanctions could be lifted. Iran has got very heavy US sanctions, and it makes it really hard for them to do what they’d like to be able to do,” President Trump says. Trump says he’s “open to hearing that, and we’ll see what happens” on Iran sanctions.
US/HUNGARY (MNI): Orban to Meet Trump in Washington With Sanctions Exemption on the Agenda
Prime Minister Viktor Orban is set to meet President Donald Trump at the White House at 16:00GMT/17:00CET. The two leaders expected to sign a “big” economic and energy cooperation package as Budapest looks to avoid new US sanctions targeting Russian oil (these measures indirectly affect Hungary, which still imports Russian crude through pipeline networks). Speaking on state radio this morning, Orban said Russian energy will be the "most important" topic at the talks, adding he wasn't looking for a "handout" from the US, but only wanted them to see that the sanctions on Russian energy would put landlocked Hungary and other countries in a similar position in an "impossible situation".
US (BBG): Tesla Shareholders Approve $1 Trillion Pay Package for Musk
Tesla Inc. shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation package for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, the largest payout ever awarded to a corporate leader. More than 75% of the votes cast were in favor of the unprecedented pay plan, the company said Thursday at its annual meeting. The outcome caps a weekslong campaign by the electric vehicle maker’s board, its CEO and prominent retail investors to build support.
ECB (MNI INTERVIEW): ECB in Good Place But Not Complacent - Kazaks
Latvia's ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks speaks to MNI on monetary policy. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
RIKSBANK (MNI INTERVIEW): Riksbank's Thedeen Sees Policy Rate Stimulative
EUROPE (MNI EXCLUSIVE): EC Sees Slightly Higher 25 Growth, Lower in 26 – Sources
Sources tell MNI about the European Commission's Autumn Forecasts. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
UK (The Times): Rachel Reeves Plans to Raise Income Tax in Upcoming Budget
Rachel Reeves has told the budget watchdog that she plans to increase income tax as she seeks to repair the public finances. The chancellor has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that a rise in personal taxation is one of the “major measures” on tax and spending that she is preparing to announce later this month. The forecaster will assess the impact of the measures, which also include Reeves’s plans to increase economic growth, before informing the Treasury of its assessment on Monday. It is the penultimate round of forecasts before the budget on November 26.
BOE (MNI): BOE Balance Sheet Reduction on Course - Saporta
The Bank of England's balance sheet transition is going as expected but is not yet at the preferred minium range of reserves, Victoria Saporta, Executive Director of the Markets Directorate said Friday. Speaking at an ECB money markets conference in Frankfurt, Saporta said the BOE is “learning by doing” to ensure the operating framework is effective when the PMRR is reached.
EU/UK (FT): EU Demands UK Pay Into Budget as Part of Relationship ‘Reset’
Brussels is pressing the UK to pay into the EU budget for the first time since leaving the bloc in a demand that has engulfed the post-Brexit “reset” in a fresh round of diplomatic recrimination. EU member states will on Friday discuss how they want London to contribute to the bloc’s regional levelling up funds as the price for dropping checks on animal and plant products and allowing cheaper energy trading, arguing that the UK should pay as Norway, Switzerland and other partners do.
EU (FT): EU Set to Water Down Landmark AI Act After Big Tech Pressure
The European Commission is proposing a pause to parts of its landmark artificial intelligence laws amid intense pressure from Big Tech companies and the US government. Brussels is set to water down part of its digital rule book, including its AI act that entered into force last year, in a decision on a so-called simplification package on November 19. The move reflects EU efforts to make the bloc more competitive against the US and China.
ISRAEL/MIDEAST (BBG): Israel Escalates Lebanon Strikes as Tensions With Hezbollah Rise
Israel launched some of its heaviest airstrikes on Lebanon since it agreed to a ceasefire with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah around a year ago. The attacks late on Thursday, which Israel said were aimed at Hezbollah weapons sites and other infrastructure in southern Lebanon, have further stoked fears among Lebanese that the two sides will revert to war.
CHINA (MNI EXCLUSIVE): China to Maintain Modest Debt Expansion Over Next 5 Years
China advisors share their GDP growth outlook. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
CHINA/AUSTRALIA (MNI): Australian Firms in China See Improved Relations
MNI (Beijing) Australian firms in China are expressing growing confidence in the outlook for bilateral trade and investment relations, with 80% of respondents to a flash survey noting an improvement since February, the Australian Chamber of Commerce in China said on Friday. Two-thirds of foreign enterprises indicated no change in their 12-month investment plans and almost half of respondents expect to expand their investment in China over the next two to three years.
JAPAN (BBG): Japan’s Takaichi Shifts Economic Policy With Looser Budget Goal
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signaled her determination to ramp up the active use of fiscal policy to power economic growth by dropping an annual budget-balancing goal that favors financial orthodoxy. Speaking in the lower house of parliament Friday, Takaichi said the government’s long-held target of achieving a primary balance surplus will no longer be reviewed on a single-year basis. The primary balance refers to the difference between government spending and revenue after factoring out debt-servicing.
DATA
GERMANY DATA (MNI): Exports to US Rebound to Some Extent in September
- GERMANY SEP EXPORTS +1.4% M/M; IMPORTS +3.1% M/M
The German trade surplus was smaller than expected in September, at 15.3bln (seasonally-adjusted, vs E16.7bln cons) following a downwardly revised August (E16.9bln, revised from E17.2bln). The decrease on a sequential comparison came as an imports jump (3.1% vs 0.5% cons; -1.4% prior, revised from -1.3%) outpaced an exports uptick (1.4% vs 0.5% cons; -0.8% prior, revised from -0.5%). Despite the September uptick, exports remain below Q2 levels in Q3 (on a nominal basis) after Destatis highlighted the series' negative contribution to Q3 GDP in their flash release.
FRANCE DATA (MNI): Private Sector Wage Growth Slows Slightly, Signs of Stability
The monthly basic wage index for private sector workers rose 0.3% Q/Q in Q325 provisional results, slowing from 0.5% in Q2. Year-on-year wage growth saw a smaller dip though, to 2.0% vs 2.1% Q2, as its recent downward trend moderates. By sector, wages grew 0.3% Q/Q or 2.1% Y/Y in industry, 0.3% Q/Q or 1.9% Y/Y in services and 0.2% Q/Q or 1.9% Y/Y in construction. Real wage growth eased from 1.3% in Q2 to 1.1% Y/Y in Q3 but in trend terms holds one of its strongest annual growth rates in the past ten years. Positive real wage growth hasn't been enough to support consumption however, with consumer spending down -0.3% Y/Y in latest data for September.
UK DATA (BBG): UK House Prices Hit a Record Ahead of Budget, Halifax Says
UK house prices reached a fresh record high in October, according to one of the country’s largest mortgage lenders, a sign of a resilient market despite mounting speculation over property taxes ahead of the Labour government’s autumn budget. The average price of properties rose 0.6% to £299,862 ($393,280) after a 0.3% fall in September, Halifax said on Friday. Valuations were up 1.9% compared with a year earlier. However, prices in London dropped 0.3%, the worst annual performance of any region.
CHINA DATA (MNI): China's Oct Exports -1.1%; First Drop in 8 Months
- CHINA OCT EXPORTS -1.1% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +2.5% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
MNI (Sydney) China's exports decreased 1.1% y/y in October, while imports rose 1.0%, data released by China Customs showed on Friday. Exports in October fell 1.1% y/y to USD305.4 billion, quickly down from the previous 8.3% growth and failed meeting the expectations for a 2.5% increase. Imports gained 1.0% y/y, slower from 7.4% in September and behind the 2.5% market consensus. China’s trade surplus in October hit USD90.07 billion, smaller than the consensus of USD95.6 billion, taking Jan-Oct’s final surplus to USD964.8 billion.
JAPAN DATA (MNI): Sep Household Spending Below F/Cs, Focus to Get Real Wages Higher
Japan Sep real household spending data was softer than forecast. Real spending fell 0.7%m/m, against a -0.1% forecast (per Rtrs). In y/y terms we were up 1.8%y/y, against a 2.5% forecast. Given generally softer cash earning outcomes in recent months some moderation in spending was not a surprise. The real spending backdrop has remained fairly resilient, staying positive in y/y terms for the past 5 months. The authorities focus will remain on returning cash earnings growth to real positive territory as without that we may see spending trends soften as we progress towards year end and into 2026.
RATINGS: Stable Outlooks Up For Review Later
Potential sovereign rating reviews of note scheduled for after hours on Friday include:
- Fitch on Ireland (current rating: AA; Outlook Stable) & Latvia (current rating: A-; Outlook Stable)
- Moody’s on Croatia (current rating: A3; Outlook Stable) & Germany (current rating: Aaa; Outlook Stable)
- S&P on Poland (current rating: A-; Outlook Stable)
- Morningstar DBRS on Poland (current rating: A, Stable Trend)
- Scope Ratings on Greece (current rating: BBB; Outlook Stable)
FOREX: USDJPY Recovers From Lows, AUDNZD Pushes to Fresh 12-Year Highs
- The Yen has seen some moderate weakness this morning following Takaichi headlines saying the government's target achieving a primary balance surplus would no longer be reviewed on a single-year basis, adding to fiscal easing expectations. Combined with a modest firming of the dollar, this has prompted a recovery for USDJPY to the 153.50 region. Markets will remain focused on the cluster of daily highs between 154.36-48, while first important support to watch lies at 152.46, the 20-day EMA.
- Meanwhile, AUDNZD has pushed to a fresh 12-year high of 1.1567 overnight as the New Zealand dollar remains in a downtrend amid the lacklustre NZ economy. Chinese trade data, seeing the weakest Y/Y rate since February, may have contributed to the NZD price action today, while AUD outperformed amid headlines on a China - Australia multilateral trading system. The next target for AUDNZD would be 1.1586, the October 2013 high.
- GBP underperforms as markets digest yesterday's BoE meeting, resulting in a knife edge bank rate hold which firmly put a December cut on the table. Governor Bailey said he "would prefer to wait and see if the durability in disinflation is confirmed in upcoming economic developments" - but a disinflationary budget on November 26 may well be associated with fiscal tightening, which would weigh on the UK economy, adding to GBP pressures.
- Importantly for GBPUSD, the pair respected the initial resistance overnight, holding the prior breakdown level around the 1.3140 mark. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind, and the bear trigger now lies at 1.3010, the Nov 4 and 5 low.
- Canadian labour market data later today is seen as a relatively stable month after a string of volatile prints. In the US, Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are scheduled ahead of NY Fed inflation expectations. Fed's Jefferson and Miran are scheduled to speak next to a series of ECB speakers.
BONDS: Bund & Gilt Curves Bear Steepen
Core global FI markets edge away from yesterday’s highs.
- No real support of note noted as global equity benchmarks soften, while an uptick in crude oil futures may be providing some marginal pressure.
- Core global curves biased a little steeper.
- Bund futures last -12 at 129.06.
- Initial support is unchanged at 128.80, a break would expose 128.41. The week’s high (129.49) presents initial resistance.
- German yields 1.5-3.0bp higher.
- EGB spreads to Bunds little changed to 0.5bp tighter despite the downtick in equities and stabilisation in EUR vol.
- Gilts lower but bears are unable to test yesterday’s low in futures. Contract last -28 at 93.13.
- UK yields 2-4bp higher. We have previously flagged steepening risks in 2s10s, albeit with fiscal inputs presenting risks to that view (the latest stories point to NI & tax tweaks that mean those with the “broadest shoulders” face a higher burden).
- BoE Executive Director for Markets Saporta noted that structural frictions in the repo market mean that there is the potential for temporary spikes but stressed that the Bank’s operational framework has operated in line with its purpose and design. A reminder that RONIA moved higher again yesterday, presumably following lower-than-expected STR take up.
- Several ECB & BoE speakers are due throughout Friday, although it will likely be the U.S. UoM sentiment data that provides the major macro input.
- Finally, the BoE’s MaPS survey (released at 12:00 London) normally has questions on the remit revision for the current financial year and remit expectation for 26-27. This will give an early indication of market expectations ahead of the Budget.
EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Corrective Cycle Exposes 50-Day EMA
A bullish trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been corrective. The contract has found support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 5577.05. Support below the EMA lies at 5566.00, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. A breach of this level and the 50-day EMA, is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on resistance and the bull trigger at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pullback since the Oct 30 high appears corrective. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 6800.30, has been breached. A clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the 50-day EMA at 6708.51 - a key pivot support. The bull trigger has been defined at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 607.31 pts or -1.19% at 50276.37 and the TOPIX ended 14.6 pts lower or -0.44% at 3298.85.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 10.204 pts or -0.25% at 3997.556 and the HANG SENG ended 244.07 pts lower or -0.92% at 26241.83.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 93.38 pts or -0.39% at 23643.54, FTSE 100 lower by 50.33 pts or -0.52% at 9685.25, CAC 40 down 13.78 pts or -0.17% at 7951.49 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 18.56 pts or -0.33% at 5592.62.
- Dow Jones mini up 22 pts or +0.05% at 47046, S&P 500 mini up 5.75 pts or +0.09% at 6753, NASDAQ mini up 22 pts or +0.09% at 25265.
Time: 10:00 GMT
COMMODITIES: Corrective Bear Cycle in Gold Remains Intact for Now
The latest pullback in WTI futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that a bullish corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.91, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is $55.96, the Oct 20 low. A corrective bear cycle in Gold remains intact for now. The move down since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Support around the 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3875.8 - a key pivot support. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- WTI Crude up $0.87 or +1.46% at $60.31
- Natural Gas up $0.04 or +0.87% at $4.394
- Gold spot up $29.79 or +0.75% at $4007.11
- Copper up $2.55 or +0.51% at $498.95
- Silver up $0.73 or +1.53% at $48.7725
- Platinum up $28.86 or +1.88% at $1560.08
Time: 10:00 GMT
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 07/11/2025 | 1110/1110 |  GB | BOE Saporta at ECB Money Market Conference | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1200/0700 |  US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1200/1200 | GB | BOE Market Participants Survey | |
| 07/11/2025 | - | GB | BOE MPG Agenda Published | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** |  CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 07/11/2025 | 1330/1430 |  EU | ECB Elderson At Bundesbank Event | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 07/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 07/11/2025 | 1515/1515 | GB | BOE Pill At National Agency Briefing | |
| 07/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 07/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 07/11/2025 | 2000/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
| 07/11/2025 | 2000/1500 | US | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | |
| 09/11/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CPI |
| 09/11/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index |
Note: Due to U.S. government shutdown, some data may be unavailable.
