RBA: MNI RBA Review-Sept 2025: Even More Data Dependent
* See Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/RBA_Review_September_2025_3e7137c28e.pdf?utm_...
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GBPUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.3753 High High Jul 2
- RES 3: 1.3681 High Jul 4
- RES 2: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
- RES 1: 1.3544/3595 High Aug 22 / 14
- PRICE: 1.3523 @ 06:28 BST Sep 1
- SUP 1: 1.3391 Low Aug 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
The outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair continues to trade above support. The Aug 22 price pattern - a bullish engulfing candle - signals the end of a recent corrective phase. An extension higher would open the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support is 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 01-Sep | 0930 | Jul/Aug | BOE Lending to Individuals/M4 / S&P Manuf PMI (f) |
| 03-Sep | 0830 | --- | BOE Mann at Signum's London Westminster Day roundtable |
| 03-Sep | 0915 | --- | BOE Breeden at Money and Payments Conference |
| 03-Sep | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global Services / Composite PMI (f) |
| 03-Sep | 1415 | --- | BOE at TSC: Bailey, Greene, Lombardelli, Taylor |
| 04-Sep | 0930 | Aug | S&P Construction PMI / BOE Decision Maker Panel data |
| 05-Sep | 0700 | Jul | Retail Sales |
| 08-Sep | 0001 | --- | KPMG / REC Report on Jobs |
| 09-Sep | 0001 | Aug | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Sep | 0700 | Jul | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 12-Sep | 0930 | Aug | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 16-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Labour Market Survey |
| 17-Sep | 0700 | --- | Consumer inflation report |
| 18-Sep | 1200 | --- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 19-Sep | 0001 | Sep | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 19-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
| 23-Sep | 0930 | Sep | S&P Manuf / Services / Comp PMIs (p) |
| 24-Sep | 0001 | Aug | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
INDONESIA: Inflation In Lower Half Of The Band
Indonesian August headline inflation moderated to 2.3% y/y% from 2.4% and core to 2.2% y/y% from 2.3%. Both measures are now below the mid-point of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) 1.5-3.5% target band. Having inflation well within the range contributed to FX stability to allow it to cut rates 25bp at two successive meetings in July and August. With political instability and BI having to intervene in the currency market, FX developments will again be key ahead of the September 17 decision.
- USDIDR reached 16498 earlier today but has stabilised around 16482 but is up 1.3% since August 20, the last BI meeting.
- Food prices are the main driver of headline inflation rising 4% y/y in August up from 3.75% in July and 2% in June. Other categories were either stable or lower with transportation down 0.3% y/y from +0.1%, utilities stable at 1.65% y/y and personal care 8.7% y/y from 9.0%.
Indonesia CPI y/y%
