MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Waller - Data To Determine Fed Cut Pace

Aug-29 05:14By: Jonathan Cavenagh

Europe

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

FED’S WALLER CALLS FOR SERIES OF INTEREST RATE CUTS - MNI
WALLER SAYS DATA WILL DETERMINE FED CUT PACE - MNI BRIEF
JAPAN AUG TOKYO CORE CPI RISES 2.5% VS. JULY 2.9% - MNI BRIEF
JAPAN JULY FACTORY OUTPUT POSTS 1ST DROP IN 2 MONTHS - MNI BRIEF
SOUTH KOREA PLANS RECORD 2026 BOND SALES TO FINANCE LEE’S BUDGET - BBG

Fig 1: Tokyo CPI Y/Y Moderated In August

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.

LABOUR MARKET (BBG): “UK business confidence rose this month to its highest in almost a decade, with an increased majority of firms planning to hire more staff in the coming year despite Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ tax hikes, a survey found.”

BANKS (BBG): UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves could raise billions of pounds of much-needed revenue by imposing a windfall tax on commercial lenders to recover the profits they are making from taxpayers on deposits held at the Bank of England.

NORWAY (MNI BRIEF): The International Monetary Fund said Norges Bank should "should proceed cautiously with monetary policy normalisation” with getting inflation back to target the most pressing near-term issue, it said in its Article IV economic assessment.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (BBG): “A meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russia’s Vladimir Putin is unlikely to materialize, according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, even though it was touted earlier by US President Donald Trump.”

POLAND (BBG): “Poland’s government unveiled its 2026 budget, prioritizing higher spending on defense amid the war in nearby Ukraine over quickly reducing one of the European Union’s biggest fiscal deficits.”

TARFIFFS (BBG): "The European Union said it’s followed through on a demand by President Donald Trump and has adopted draft regulations to remove all tariffs on US industrial goods and give preferential treatment to some US agricultural and seafood products. "

FED (MNI): Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller said Thursday it’s time for policymakers to lower interest rates in coming months in order to support a job market that he described as increasingly weaker.

FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday the pace of interest rate cuts will be determined by incoming economic data, but the direction lower to neutral is clear.

FED (MNI INTERVIEW): The Federal Reserve’s rush to cut interest rates next month looks premature given still-elevated inflation rates and an economic and employment picture that is largely stable, former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig told MNI.

FED (MNI INTERVIEW): Federal Reserve officials have room to reduce interest rates starting next month because inflation is already at or below target if not for the one-time tariff shock, but borrowing costs are just two or three quarter point cuts away from neutral so any further easing will be cautious, former Dallas Fed economist Joseph Haslag told MNI.

FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook filed suit Thursday pushing back against President Donald Trump's attempt to fire her earlier this week, arguing the president's move would undermine the Federal Reserve Act and violates her Fifth Amendment due process rights.

FED (BBG): "Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte sent a new criminal referral against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, intensifying the Trump administration’s pressure campaign against the central bank board member over allegations of mortgage fraud."

OTHER

JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Tokyo’s core inflation slowed to 2.5% y/y in August from 2.9% in July but remained above 2% for the 10th straight month, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed Friday.

JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s industrial output fell 1.6% m/m in July, the first drop in two months, after rising 2.1% in June due to weaker auto production, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed Friday.

JAPAN (BBG): " Japan’s Ministry of Finance has asked primary dealers for their views on further reducing issuance of longer-maturity government bonds, according to people familiar with the matter."

SOUTH KOREA (BBG): “South Korea will issue a record 232 trillion won ($167.2 billion) of bonds in 2026 to finance President Lee Jae Myung’s expansionary fiscal agenda, with the liberal government’s spending set to rise 8.1% from the current year.”

CHINA

POLICY (ECONOMIC DAILY): "Authorities should make greater efforts to improve policy effectiveness to address the slowing momentum shown in July investment and consumption, said Economic Daily in a commentary."

HOUSING (YICAI): "China’s State Council has called on local governments to inventory housing, facilities and land, while accelerating the construction of “good houses” and the renovation of urban villages, Yicai.com reported Friday."

STOCKS (BBG): "China’s stock market is heading for a record turnover this month, underscoring the intensity of a bull run that’s bringing in more investors by the day."

GEOPOLITICS (BBG): " Russian President Vladimir Putin has a rare opportunity to meet with his two most important energy partners this weekend, at a time when he needs something from both."

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY421.7 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY782.9 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY421.7 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY361.2 billion today, according to Wind Information.

The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4965% at 09:58 am local time from the close of 1.5395% on Thursday.
The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 47 on Thursday, compared with the close of 50 on Wednesday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1030 Fri; -0.35% Y/Y

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1030 on Friday, compared with 7.1063 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1281 by Bloomberg survey today.

MARKET DATA

NEW ZEALAND AUGUST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 92.0; PRIOR 94.7
NEW ZEALAND AUGUST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX M/M -2.9%; PRIOR -4.1%

AUSTRALIA JULY PRIVATE CREDIT M/M 0.7%; MEDIAN 0.6%; PRIOR 0.6%

JAPAN JULY JOBLESS RATE 2.3%; MEDIAN 2.5%; PRIOR 2.5%
JAPAN JULY JOB-TO-APPLICANT RATIO 1.22; MEDIAN 1.23; PRIOR 1.22
JAPAN AUGUST TOKYO CPI Y/Y 2.6%; MEDIAN 2.6%; PRIOR 2.9%
JAPAN AUGUST TOKYO CPI, EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y 2.5%; MEDIAN 2.5%; PRIOR 2.9%
JAPAN AUGUST TOKYO CPI, EX FRESH FOOD, ENERGY Y/Y 3.0%; MEDIAN 3.0%; PRIOR 3.1%
JAPAN JULY P IP Y/Y -0.9%; MEDIAN -0.6%; PRIOR 4.4%
JAPAN JULY RETAIL SALES Y/Y 0.3%; MEDIAN 1.6%; PRIOR 2.0%
JAPAN JULY HOUSING STARTS Y/Y -9.7%; MEDIAN -9.8%; PRIOR -15.6%
JAPAN AUGUST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 34.9; MEDIAN 34.2; PRIOR 33.7

SOUTH KOREA JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y 5.0%; MEDIAN 3.9%; PRIOR 1.6%
SOUTH KOREA JULY CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE 0.5; PRIOR 0.2

MARKETS

US TSYS: Yields Edge Higher In A Quiet Session

The TYU5 range has been 112-17 to 112-20+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-17, down 0-02 from the previous close.

The US 2-year yield is trading around 3.63%.
The US 10-year yield has edged higher trading around 4.215%, up 0.01 from its close.
(Bloomberg) -- A block of 3,800 contracts in five-year bond December futures traded at a price of 109-15 on CBOT.
10-Year Yields extended their move lower as demand increased as we head into month-end. While the 4.35% area holds, bounces should be met with demand. First target is the recent lows around 4.18% then the bottom of the range towards 4.10% comes back into focus.
Eric Daugherty on X: “BREAKING: FHFA Director Bill Pulte has filed ANOTHER CRIMINAL REFERRAL against Democrat Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud on a 3rd property, and misrepresentations about her properties to the U.S. government while serving on the Fed Board. “These inconsistencies appear Cook made additional, multiple false representations, including to the U.S. Government, regarding the status of her mortgages and properties.”
Financelot on X: “Federal Reserve Lisa Cook's emergency hearing for a temporary restraining order and injunction against Trump is scheduled Aug 29, 2025 at 10 am.”
MNI Brief: Waller Says Data Will Determine Fed Cut Pace. Waller said Thursday the pace of interest rate cuts will be determined by incoming data, but the direction lower to neutral is clear.
Data/Events: Personal Income, PCE, Inventories, MNI Chicago PMI, U. of Mich. Sentiment, Kansas City Fed Services Activity

Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JGBS: 30yr Yields Lower As Authorities Ask For Views On Longer Dated Supply

JGB futures sit off Thursday highs, last near 137.49, +.06 versus settlement levels. Recent lows sub 137.30 continue to hold though. Helping futures off recent highs has been a slightly softer tone for US Tsys futures so far today, although aggregate moves have been modest.

Earlier we had a number of monthly data prints, which were mixed relative to expectations. Most notable was August Tokyo CPI, where the y/y outcomes all came in line with market expectations. Headline is now back to 2.6%y/y, against recent highs of 3.4%.
However, the detail showed some firmness in m/m services inflation, led by a 2% gain for entertainment. In y/y terms services inflation was still edged down to 2% from 2.1%, so near term BoJ thinking may not be impacted.
Other data showed a dip in the jobless rate, but the job-to-applicant ratio was steady. Industrial output fell 1.6%m/m in July, against a -1.1m/m forecast. Automobile production declined 6.7%, the first fall in three months, reversing a 0.5% rise in June as front-loaded exports ahead of U.S. tariffs weighed.
In the cash JGB space we have seen some softness in back end yields. The 30yr is down by around 2bps, last near 3.20%. The 10yr is holding under 1.62% at this stage. The 2/30's JGB curve is flatter by around 4bps to +232bps.
New wires are reporting that the authorities are asking primary dealer for views around cutting longer term bond supply. BBG notes: "- Japan’s Ministry of Finance has asked primary dealers for their views on further reducing issuance of longer-maturity government bonds, according to people familiar with the matter." (see this link for more details).
Next Monday we get Q2 capex, while on Tuesday BoJ Deputy Governor Himino speaks.

AUSSIE BONDS: Futures Down, Led By Front End, AU-US10yr Spread Elevated

Aussie bond futures sit down a touch in Friday trade to date, with 3yr (YM) futures slightly softer, last at 96.575, off 2.5bps. 10yr futures (XM), were down 1bps to 95.68. Broader ranges are holding in both benchmarks, but the 10yr has underperformed US moves this week.

For cash ACGB yields, we sit higher today, led by the front end. The 3 yr was last around 3.40%, up +2bps, while the 10yr was back near 4.29%. Both benchmarks are down a little over the past week, but not as much as US yield losses. The AU-US 10yr spread is threatening to test multi month highs, we were last near +8bps.
Earlier July private credit data showed a 0.7%m/m rise, against a 0.6% forecast. We sit +7.2% in y/y terms.
On the bond supply front via BBG: "Australia sold A$1 billion ($653.6 million) of bonds due Nov. 21, 2028 on Aug. 29. Investors offered to buy 4.12 times the amount of securities sold."
Next week, the main focus will be on Wednesday's Q2 GDP print. Before then we get more partials, but at the momentum the markets is forecasting a 0.5%q/q gain, after +0.2% was recorded for Q1.
We also have RBA speak from Governor Bullock next Wednesday, then Deputy Governor Hauser speaks with Rtrs on Thursday.

BONDS: NZGBS: Lower Yield Trend Persists, 2yr Off 8bps Past Week

NZGB yields have maintained a negative bias in Friday trade. This has been a fairly consistent theme this week, with the 2yr breaking under 3%, off close to 9bps since end levels last week (last around 2.94%). The 10yr is tracking at 4.31%, down close to 6bps in the past week.

NZGB yields have bucked the slightly firmer US Tsy yield backdrop so far today, but the underlying theme from Thursday's session was mostly yield softness in terms of the majors.
The 2yr swap rate is little changed so far today, last near 2.72%, off close to 8bps in the past week. By the Feb RBNZ meeting the market expects the RBNZ policy rate to be just above 2.50% per OIS pricing. This is little changed over the past week.
The data trends have been mixed over the past week. Today's ANZ consumer confidence print underscores the fragility of the recovery, with sentiment back to late 2024 lows.
Next week we have mostly second tier data, with building permits, terms of trade, ANZ commodity prices and Q2 volume of building work done all on tap.

FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - USD Holding Above Support For Now

The BBDXY has had a range of 1201.01 - 1202.67 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1202, +0.10%. The broad USD selling continued overnight. A sustained break below 1197/1195 is needed to regain the momentum lower and retest the year's lows. The USD’s is holding just above this support but is trading very with a very heavy tone. Zerohedge on X: “Time to go long USD and TSYs, The judge assigned on the Lisa Cook case is Jia Cobb: she was appointed by Biden in 2021, and has repeatedly ruled against Trump.” https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/28/federal-reserve-lawsuit-judge-jia-cobb-00533672

EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1656 - 1.1683, Asia is currently trading 1.1665. The pair is consolidating just above its support. First support is back towards 1.1550, a move back below here could signal a deeper pullback as the market tries to find a base from which to build for another extension higher.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3496 - 1.3513, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3500. The pair is consolidating around the 1.3500 area. Back in the middle of its recent 1.3350-1.3650 range, the USD’s fate will have a direct impact on which side is tested.
USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1159-7.1292, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1030, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1250. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2200/2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower. Above 7.2500 and we could see a test of the USD Shorts.
Cross asset : SPX -0.10%, Gold $3409, US 10-Year 4.213%, BBDXY 1202, Crude Oil $64.21
Data/Events : Italy GDP/CPI, EZ ECB 73 Year CPI Expectations, Germany Retails Sales/Unemployment/CPI, France Consumer Spending/CPI/GDP/Payrolls/PPI, Spain CPI/Retails Sales/ Current Account Balance

Fig 1: BBDXY Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Consolidates Around 147.00

The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 146.77-147.11, Asia is currently trading around 147.00, +0.05%. USD/JPY has consolidated around 147.00 in a quiet session. The demand towards 146.00 has been pretty solid all of July and August, keeping us for the most part in a 146.00-149.00 range. CFTC data for last week shows leveraged accounts again added to JPY shorts so they will be betting on the support to continue to hold. A sustained break below 145.50/146.00 is needed to to turn the focus back to the year's lows towards 140.00.

MNI Brief: Japan Aug Tokyo Core CPI Rises 2.5% Vs. July 29% - Tokyo’s core inflation slowed to 2.5% y/y but remained above 2% for the 10th straight month. The BOJ expects underlying CPI to weaken temporarily on softer growth before moving back toward its 2% target. Officials judged recent inflation to be stronger than expected, with high rice prices boosting food costs.
MNI Brief: Japan July Factor Output Posts 1st Drop In 2 Months - Japan’s industrial output fell 1.6% m/m in July, the first drop in two months, after rising 2.1% in June due to weaker auto production. BOJ officials remain cautious over the impact of US tariffs on exports and production, with a focus on potential spillovers to corporate profits and wage growth.
U/E Rate Down, But Divergences From Steady Job-To-Applicant Ratio: Japan's jobless rate surprised on the downside in July, printing at 2.3%, versus 2.5% forecast, which was also the June outcome. The job-to-applicant ratio ticked down a touch to 1.22, versus 1.23 forecast, while the June outcome was 1.22. Whilst the jobless rate suggests a tight labour market, other indicators are painting a less hawkish picture.
“AKAZAWA: JAPAN STAFF MEMBERS IN US TO DISCUSS TRADE MATTERS, SEEK EARLY EXECUTIVE ORDER TO LOWER TARIFFS ON JAPAN, EXPECT TO VISIT US BEFORE EXECUTIVE ORDER COMES" - BBG
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 145.00($1.17b Aug 29), 146.50($1.14b Aug 29), 147.50($806m Aug 29) - BBG.

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Drifts Higher In Quiet Session

The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6527 - 0.6542 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6535, +05%. The AUD drifted higher in a very quiet Friday session. US Equity futures have traded a little lower, E-minis -0.10%, NQU5 -0.20%. The AUD is probing back above 0.6500 but with little momentum for the moment. The AUD finds itself firmly back in the middle of its recent multi-month range of 0.6350-0.6650 with little clear long-term direction.

"AUSTRALIA JULY PRIVATE CREDIT RISES 0.7% M/M; EST. +0.6%, AUSTRALIA JULY PRIVATE CREDIT RISES 7.2% Y/Y" - BBG
“Lisa Cook sued to block Donald Trump’s attempt to fire her over alleged mortgage fraud. Her lawyers suggested the dispute may have stemmed from a “clerical error.”” - BBG
Financelot on X: “Federal Reserve Lisa Cook's emergency hearing for a temporary restraining order and injunction against Trump is scheduled Aug 29, 2025 at 10 am.”
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6500(AUD946m), 0.6515(AUD477m), 0.6560(AUD483m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6400(AUD768m Sept 2), 0.6475(AUD569m Sept 3) - BBG
AUD/JPY - Asia-Pac range 95.85 - 96.16, Asia is trading around 96.10. The pair continues to push up against the 96.00 area. This pair’s direction will be determined by the market's ability to follow on with this risk-on move or not. A sustained move back above 96.50 would turn the trend higher again but until then sellers should be around looking for this move to top out.

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Drifts Higher In Quiet Session

The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5880 - 0.5895 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5890, +0.10%. The NZD has drifted higher in a quiet session. Data overnight showed the US economy is still expanding and risk reacted in kind, but the USD can’t catch a break and remains heavy. The NZD has bounced off its support toward 0.5800, sellers should continue to be around looking to fade the move back towards the 0.5950 area initially.

ANZ Consumer Confidence Measure Falters, Back To Late 2024 Levels: The ANZ August consumer confidence print fell by 2.9% to 92.0. This is back to levels from late last year. The chart below plots the headline consumer confidence measure against NZ private consumption growth from the national accounts. The current sentiment backdrop is not implying a dramatic lift in spending trends, although we have seen divergences in the past.
New Zealand July Residential Lending Rises 5.1% From Year Ago: RBNZ publishes sector lending figures for July, on website. Total housing lending rises by ~NZ$1.3b m/m to NZ$380.5b, Gains by NZ$18.4b or 5.1% y/y — fastest annual pace since October 2022.
“FONTERRA JULY NZ MILK COLLECTION RISES 1% Y/Y:FSF NZ" - BBG
“NEW ZEALAND WEIGHS RELAXING HOME-BUYING BAN FOR RICH FOREIGNERS" - BBG
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5700(NZD500m Sept 2), 0.5700(NZD384m Sept 3) - BBG
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.1095 - 1.1119, currently trading 1.1100. The dovish RBNZ has seen the Cross surge higher breaking back above 1.1000 convincingly. First signs overnight of momentum stalling above 1.1100, look for dips back towards 1.1000/1.1030 to be supported.

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIA STOCKS: China's Rally Continues as Turnover Leaps

Data on turnover for the month for China stocks shows the key equity bourses are heading for a record month for turnover, as per BBG. The average turnover for August has topped the previous monthly record. Naturally this has seen the major bourses deliver strong returns as retail investor led momentum is growing rapidly.

The Hang Seng delivered decent gains Friday of +0.63%, yet not enough to turn the weekly performance to positive as it remains down just over -0.70%. The onshore bourses however have had a different week with the CSI 300 up +0.58% today and +2.55% for the week, Shanghai up +016% today and +0.63% for the week, and Shenzhen rising +0.45% today and +2.06% over the last five days.
The NIKKEI stumbled into the end of the week with a fall of -0.25% and is barely holding onto a weekly gain of +0.20%.
In Taiwan, the TAIEX is up +0.48% and +2.47% for the week even as foreign flows turn negative.
The KOSPI has had a weak end to the week, down -0.22%, yet remains up by +0.65% for the week as it heads into a big week of data next week.
The FTSE Malay KLCI has had a tough period and is down -1.33% for the week, with falls of -0.66% today.
The Jakarta Composite fell heavily today by -2.27%, which looks more technically driven as it hit new all time highs earlier this week.
In Singapore, the Straits Times is up +0.37% for the week whilst the PSEi in the Philippines is down -1.8%
India's NIFTY 50 is one of the worst regional performers down modestly today, but over -2.4% for the week.

Oil Holding on to Modest Weekly Gain

Whilst gold has delivered overall gains this week, it remains down over 7% in August, for it's biggest monthly loss since the start of the trade war in April.
Down -0.57%, WTI at US$64.23 bbl remains up over +0.90% for the week.
The falls today sees WTI trading through the 20-day EMA of $64.31 and closing below could point to further downward pressure on prices next week.

Brent is down -0.55% today at US$68.24, yet remains up +0.75% for the week. For August, Brent is down -5.9%.
Oil markets will be focusing in on Ukraine, Russia developments
This comes as the German Chancellor says that the meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russia's Vladimir Putin "won't happen", thus increasing the likelihood of further action from the US.
The European Union is considering introducing secondary sanctions to prevent third countries from helping Russia circumvent existing punitive measures to complement the US pressure, with President Trump possibly about to release a statement on the situation that could ultimately impact the flow of Russian oil.
Despite further risks from the US, President Putin met with President Xi and PM Modi to discuss their energy needs and the supply of Russian oil.
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is pressuring India to halt its purchases of Russian oil, accusing New Delhi of funding the Kremlin's campaign in Ukraine.

Gold Softens in Asia Trading Ahead of US Data Release

Whilst gold has given back some of the overnight gains in Asia today, it remains close to it's all time high of US$3,418.38 and set for another weekly gain.
Up +1.12% for the week, gold has fallen -0.22% during the day to be $3,409.70 yet retain its position above all major moving averages; underscoring a modest bullish momentum.

Gold had edged higher in the US trading session leading into the Friday release of the US personal consumption report - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
The PCE is expected to accelerate at the fastest annual pace in five months; a result that may limit the central bank's ability to ease policy and just a day after stronger than expected GDP for second quarter.
A data release that creates doubts for a rate cut will continue to heap pressure on the Federal Reserve from the White House.
The Federal Reserve Chair opened the door last week at Jackson Hole on a rate cut, with swaps markets pricing moving rapidly to increase the probability.
Gold is up +30% year to date and looking for a trigger for a further rally and a rate cut could be that catalyst.

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
29/08/2025	0600/0800	***	SE	GDP
29/08/2025	0600/0800	**	SE	Retail Sales
29/08/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Import/Export Prices
29/08/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Retail Sales
29/08/2025	0630/0730		GB	DMO to release FQ3 (Oct-Dec) issuance ops calendar
29/08/2025	0645/0845	***	FR	HICP (p)
29/08/2025	0645/0845	**	FR	PPI
29/08/2025	0645/0845	***	FR	GDP (f)
29/08/2025	0645/0845	**	FR	Consumer Spending
29/08/2025	0700/0900	***	ES	HICP (p)
29/08/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	Unemployment
29/08/2025	0800/1000	***	IT	GDP (f)
29/08/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	Bavaria CPI
29/08/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
29/08/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	Baden Wuerttemberg CPI
29/08/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
29/08/2025	0900/1100	***	IT	HICP (p)
29/08/2025	0900/1100		EU	ECB de Guindos at Cursos Europeos de Verano
29/08/2025	1200/1400	***	DE	Germany CPI (p)
29/08/2025	1200/1400	***	DE	Germany CPI (p)
29/08/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts
29/08/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
29/08/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined
29/08/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Personal Income and Consumption
29/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
29/08/2025	1342/0942	***	US	MNI Chicago PMI
29/08/2025	1400/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
29/08/2025	1400/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
29/08/2025	1500/1100		CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
29/08/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
29/08/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly