EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: NZ GDP Quarterly and Annual Growth Rates

Source: MNI - Market News/Stats NZ
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL - IRAN CONFLICT (BBC): "Donald Trump has approved plans to attack Iran, but has not made a final decision on whether to strike the country, the BBC's US partner CBS reports. The US president held off on initiating strikes in case Iran agreed to abandon its nuclear program, a senior intelligence source told CBS. Trump is reportedly considering a US strike on Fordo, an underground uranium enrichment facility in Iran."
UK
TARIFFS (BBC): "The UK’s efforts to secure relief for steel exports to the US were likely to be wrapped into broader tariff negotiations, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said, in remarks that may dampen expectations for an imminent deal. "
EU
TRADE (POLITICO): “While expectations for trade agreements were low heading into this week’s G7 summit, the confab of world leaders in the Canadian Rockies yielded no apparent progress between the U.S. and major trading partners like the European Union and Japan.”
EU (POLITICO): “The EU executive is considering transferring almost €200 billion of frozen Russian state assets held in Belgium into a new, riskier investment fund that would pay out higher interest, four officials with knowledge of proceedings told POLITICO.”
FRANCE (POLITICO): “France is planning to put forward a proposal with its European partners to resolve the conflict between Israel and Iran amid fears of a regional escalation.”
NATO (POLITICO): “NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who took over as NATO chief last October, plans to eliminate two divisions and cut dozens of positions at headquarters in Brussels, three current NATO officials and one former senior official told POLITICO.”
SPAIN (EUROWEEKLY): “Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez continues to be embroiled in a corruption scandal that leaves him clinging on to his political survival.”
CZECH (POLITICO): “Czech government survives no-confidence vote over bitcoin scandal. PM Petr Fiala defeats an opposition motion to topple his administration months before scheduled elections.”
US
FED: (MNI FED WATCH) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled Wednesday the FOMC is prepared to hold interest rates where they are until the effects of tariffs on inflation, jobs and growth are more evident in the economic data. Three months of favorable inflation readings since February is welcome news, the Fed chair said, but fresh FOMC projections showed the median official expects headline and core inflation to end the year three-tenths higher than he or she did in March, rising to 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively.
FED: (MNI BRIEF) Powell-Job Market 'Not Crying Out' For Rate Cuts. "The economy seems to be in solid shape. So the labor market's not crying out for a rate cut," he told reporters during a press conference. "You don't really see unemployment going up. You don't see increased slack. You're at 4.2% unemployment. For many years, that was an extremely low level. It happens to have come up off of an even lower level."
FED: (MNI BRIEF) Powell See’s Bigger Tariff Boost to Inflation. "We've had goods inflation just moving up a bit. We do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer. It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer," Powell told reporters during his post-meeting press conference. "A good example of that would be goods being sold at retailers today may have been imported several months ago before tariffs were imposed."
JAPAN
TANKAN: (MNI BRIEF) The Bank of Japan’s June Tankan survey will likely show a decline in business sentiment from three months ago, though capital investment plans by major firms for the current fiscal year are expected to be revised up in line with typical seasonal trends, according to economists. U.S. tariffs, elevated costs, and persistent uncertainty is weighing on sentiment, particularly among manufacturers.
JAPAN (BBG): "Japan’s finance ministry is considering trimming its issuance of super-long bonds starting in July, according to a draft of a revised bond issuance plan seen by Bloomberg."
OTHER
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF) : Australia’s unemployment rate in May printed at 4.1%, unchanged from April and inline with expectations, while employment contracted by 2,500, below the 21,000 roles expected and down from April’s 89,000 result, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Thursday. "Despite employment falling by 2,000 people this month, it’s up 2.3% compared to May 2024, which is stronger than the pre-pandemic, 10-year average annual growth of 1.7%,” said Sean Crick, head of labour statistics at the ABS. "This fall in employment, combined with a drop in unemployment of 3,000 people, meant that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% for May."
NEW ZEALAND (MNI BRIEF): NZ GDP Grows 0.8% Q/Q: The New Zealand economy grew 0.8% q/q in Q1, 10 basis points higher than the previous quarter, data from Stats NZ showed Thursday. The print was also 10bp higher than market expectations. The economy shrunk 0.7% on a yearly basis. “Expenditure on GDP rose 0.9% in the March 2025 quarter, following a 0.6% rise in the December 2024 quarter," Stats NZ noted. "Expenditure on GDP fell 0.9% over the year ended March 2025 compared with the year ended March 2024.” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway told MNI in May following the board’s split decision to lower the official cash rate 25bp to 3.25% that uncertainty over the outlook for inflation will continue.
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): BOC Says Sentiment Remains Low; Trend CPI Above 2%. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters Wednesday the more real-time sentiment indicators officials have focused on through the shifting U.S. trade dispute remain near a low point and regular core inflation measures appear to be overstating price gains, signals in line with his view he may cut rates again later this year. The economy has shown some resilience as Donald Trump imposed tariffs but sentiment fell off as trade tensions escalated and "are still low by any standard," Macklem said in response to a question from MNI.
BRAZIL (MNI WATCH) : The Central Bank of Brazil signaled Wednesday its latest 25bps interest rate hike to 15% likely marks the end of the tightening cycle barring an unforeseen worsening inflation.
CHINA
MNI China Press Digest June 19: Logistics, Premier Li, Yuan
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY84.2 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY203.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY84.2 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY119.3 reverse repo today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PPBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1729 Thurs; +1.06% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1729 on Thursday, compared with 7.1761 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1905 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND 1Q GDP YOY -0.7% EST -0.8% PRIOR -1.3% REVISED
NEW ZEALAND GDP 1Q SA QOQ 0.8% EST. 0.7% PRIOR 0.5% REVISED
AUSTRALIA EMPLOYMENT CHANGE MAY -2.5k EST 21.2k PRIOR 87.6k REVISED
AUSTRALIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MAY 4.1% EST 4.1% PRIOR 4.1%
AUSTRALIA FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT CHANGE 38.7k PRIOR 58.6k REVISED
AUSTRALIA PART TIME EMPLOYMENT CHANGE -41.1k PRIOR 29.0k REVISED
AUSTRALIA PARTICIPATION RATE 67.0% EST 67.1% PRIOR 67.1%
CHINA SWIFT GLOBAL PAYMENTS CNY MAY +2.9%; APR. +3.5%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - TYU5 Slightly Higher
The TYU5 range has been 110-23+ to 110.30 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-27+, up 0-02 from the previous close.
JGBS: 5Y Leads Yields Lower, MoF Considering Cutting LT Issuance
JGB futures surged higher in the Tokyo afternoon session, +42 compared to settlement levels, after news that the MoF is considering trimming its issuance of super-long bonds starting in July. A draft of a revised bond issuance plan was seen by Bloomberg.
AUSSIE BONDS: Modest Bull-Flattener, Subdued Session Despite Jobs Data
ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +3.5) sit slightly stronger after dealing in narrow ranges.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed With A modest Bull-Flattener Despite GDP Beat
NZGBs closed with modest gains, benchmark yields 1-2bps lower, after reversing the initial reaction to stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP data.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - USD Bounce Needs Confirmation Of US Entering The Conflict
The BBDXY has had a range of 1209.02 - 1212.22 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1211. "CHINA'S XIE: BENEFITS OF US-CHINA TRADE "GENERALLY BALANCED, PROTECTIONISM NO BETTER THAN DRINKING POISON WHEN THIRSTY, CURRENT US TARIFFS ON CHINA STILL `UNREASONABLY HIGH'' - BBG
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Can't Move Lower With Risk
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 144.74 - 145.22, Asia is currently trading around 145.00. USD/JPY has drifted sideways in a muted Asian session. USD/JPY continues to find demand on dips back to 144.00/50 in the short-term, the wider range continues to hold.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Edges Lower
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6476 - 0.6511 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6490. The AUD has edged lower in our session -0.28%. All eyes are focused on the potential entry of the US into the Israel-Iran Conflict.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Has A Look Below 0.6000
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5983 - 0.6041 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5995, -0.55%. The NZD has had a decent move lower in our session as risk turns lower with the potential entry of the U.S. into the Middle East conflict. Price has broken below its recent 0.6000 support and would have triggered any stops lingering just below that level. It feels like the market is waiting for confirmation of the US military committing itself to the war effort before deciding how to deploy risk. In that scenario can the NZD follow through on this break below 0.6000 before we have that information ?
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Middle East Tensions Weigh Heavy on Stocks
Most major bourses were down today as stories suggest that President Trump has approved US attacks on Iran, a move seen to further escalate the middle east conflict. With limited key data out in the region and financial markets waiting for the Federal Reserve decision on rates, the path of least resistance was lower.
OIL: Crude Watching & Waiting Middle East Situation
Oil is little changed today continuing to hold onto gains made since Friday as the situation in the Middle East remains tense and uncertain. Currently the main impact on oil from the conflict is on shipping but concerns are heightened that supply could be more severely impacted if Israel strikes Iran’s main export hubs or if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. Israel and Iran continue to strike each other’s territory.
GOLD: Higher Fed US Inflation Outlook Offsetting Middle East Risks
Gold has not benefited from the risk off move in equities from continued geopolitical uncertainty as the Fed signalled it is on hold for now and revised its inflation forecasts higher. Bullion has traded in a narrow range during today’s APAC session. It rose to a high of $3387.98/oz earlier, below initial resistance at $3451.3, but then trended lower to around $3370 remaining above initial support at $3344.8. It is currently up 0.1% to $3372.9. The USD index is also off its intraday peak to be up slightly.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 19/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** | SNB PolicyRate | |
| 19/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** | SNB Interest Rate Decision | |
| 19/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | ECB's Lagarde On Economic and Financial Integration | ||
| 19/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | Norges Bank Rate Decision | |
| 19/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | Construction Production | |
| 19/06/2025 | 0945/1145 | ECB de Guindos On Eurozone Economic Outlook | ||
| 19/06/2025 | 1030/1230 | ECB Lagarde Keynote Speech At Economic Integration Conference | ||
| 19/06/2025 | 1100/1200 | *** | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 19/06/2025 | 1100/0700 | *** | Turkey Benchmark Rate | |
| 19/06/2025 | 1100/1200 | *** | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 19/06/2025 | - | ECB Cipollone At Eurogroup Meeting | ||
| 19/06/2025 | 1600/1800 | ECB Lagarde At Financi'Elles event | ||
| 20/06/2025 | 2301/0001 | ** | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence | |
| 20/06/2025 | 2330/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 20/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | Public Sector Finances | |
| 20/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 20/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | PPI | |
| 20/06/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | Manufacturing Sentiment | |
| 20/06/2025 | - | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting | ||
| 20/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index | |
| 20/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 20/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | |
| 20/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Retail Trade |