MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: NZ PMI To 4yr High

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• FED’S SCHMID SEES ‘LITTLE REASON’ TO LOWER RATES - MNI BRIEF 
• TAIWAN WILL INVEST $250 BILLION IN US CHIPMAKING UNDER NEW TRADE DEAL - CNBC
• LANE SEES NO NEAR-TERM RATE DEBATE, BUT ECB READY TO ACT - STAMPA 
• KATAYAMA: AGREEMENT WITH US INCLUDES POSSIBLE FX INTERVENTION - BBG 
• NEW ZEALAND MANUFACTURING EXPANDS AT FASTEST PACE IN FOUR YEARS - BBG 

Fig 1:  NZ PMI & Forward Market RBNZ Expectations

Source: BusinessNZ/Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

UK

UKRAINE (BBG): “The UK will open a business center in Kyiv this year to help defense startups send more military hardware into Ukraine.” 

CLIMATE (BBG): “Britain risks widespread job losses across the clean-energy sector if global supply chains are hit by shocks, according to a new report that warns the country is too reliant on China for its climate ambitions.” 

EU

ECB (STAMPA/BBG): “Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that he’s comfortable with the European Central Bank’s monetary-policy settings, according to Italy’s La Stampa newspaper.” 

RUSSIA (BBG): “ Russia’s revenues from its oil and gas industry, vital to financing its war in Ukraine, dropped to a five-year low in 2025 as crude prices slumped and gas exports declined.” 

US

FED (MNI BRIEF): The Federal Reserve needs to keep monetary policy somewhat tight to continue putting downward pressure on an inflation rate that has shown some improvement but remains too high, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said Thursday.

POWER (BBG) : “President Donald Trump and the governors of several US Northeastern states agreed to push for an emergency wholesale electricity auction that would compel technology companies to effectively fund new power plants.”

CHIPS (CNBC): "The U.S. and Taiwan have reached a trade agreement to build chips and chip factories on American soil, the Department of Commerce announced Thursday. As part of the agreement, Taiwanese chip and technology companies will invest at least $250 billion in production capacity in the U.S., and the Taiwanese government will guarantee $250 billion in credit for these companies." 

JAPAN

FX INTERVENTION (BBG): “Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama says she’s concerned about the yen’s recent weakness and notes an agreement between the finance minister of Japan and the US treasury secretary includes possible currency intervention.” 

OTHER

US/TAIWAN (BBG): “The US and Taiwan agreed to a long-sought trade pact that would lower tariffs on goods from the self-governed island to 15% and see Taiwanese semiconductor companies increase financing for American operations by $500 billion.” 

NEW ZEALAND (BBG): " New Zealand’s manufacturing industry expanded at the fastest pace in four years in December, reinforcing signs the economy is responding to lower borrowing costs." 

CANADA/CHINA (BBG): "Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hailed his strategic partnership with China’s Xi Jinping, hours after touting the importance of their ties in the face of the “new world order” — a veiled reference to Donald Trump’s foreign policy swings." 

CHINA

US/CHINA (MNI BRIEF): U.S. firms operating in China have increased their confidence about medium-term business prospects, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in China on Friday, with a recent survey showing that 48% of respondents reported an optimistic or slightly optimistic outlook for the next two years, up from 37% in 2025.

POLICY (YICAI): "The PBOC's structural policy tool interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points will influence the banking system more precisely than a broad based cut, according to experts interviewed by Yicai." 

MARKETS (BBG): “China is pulling the plug on a key advantage held by high-frequency traders, removing servers dedicated to those firms out of local exchanges’ data centers, according to people familiar with the matter.” 

GROWTH (YICAI): "China’s real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year could have slowed to around 4.5%, bringing full-year real GDP growth to approximately 5%, according to Yi Xian, Chief Macro Economist at Huatai Securities, ahead of next week’s release of annual economic data." 

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY52.7 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY86.7 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY52.7 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY34 billion today, according to Wind Information.

• The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4607% at 09:43 am local time from the close of 1.5024% on Thursday.
• The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 48 on Thursday, compared with the close of 49 on Wednesday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0078 Fri; +5.17% Y/Y

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.0078 on Friday, compared with 7.0064 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 6.9711 by Bloomberg survey today.

MARKET DATA

NEW ZEALAND DEC BUSINESSNZ MANUFACTURING PMI 56.1; PRIOR 51.7
NEW ZEALAND DEC FOOD PRICES M/M -0.3%; PRIOR -0.4% 

MARKETS 

US TSYS: Little Changed In Asia, Light Data Calendar Bit Fedspeak Due

TYH6 is dealing at 112-056, -0-01 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

• US tsys are slightly cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after finishing Thursday near session cheaps, with the curves flatter with the 30Y Bond outperforming.
• The market had retreated following lower than expected weekly & continuing claims and higher than estimated Philly Fed Business Outlook & Empire Mfg.
• The Bureau of Economic Analysis has announced updated release dates for delayed data: The Q4 GDP / 2025 second estimate will be published March 13 (was originally scheduled for Feb 26); with the third estimate out April 9 (originally scheduled for March 27). These will follow the advance estimate for the quarter on February 20.
• Friday’s data is limited to Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization at 0915ET. Otherwise multiple Fed speakers are scheduled: Boston Fed Collins welcoming remarks (1050ET), Fed VC Bowman on economy & monetary policy (1100E) and Fed VC Jefferson at 1130ET.

JGBS: JB1 Hovering Near Cycle Lows, No Chance of BOJ Hike Priced For Next Week

JGB futures are weaker, -17 compared to settlement levels, hovering just above cycle lows. 

• The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at the January 22-23 meeting following the December hike. The broader trajectory remains toward further tightening as Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated in recent guidance. However, with a snap election possible, we doubt Ueda will provide signals on the timing or magnitude of future hikes, given the risk of political backlash.
• Markets expect the BOJ to wait until the government’s tolerance for a weaker yen and higher yields is tested before tightening further, with a full 25bp hike priced in by July.
• US tsys are slightly cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after finishing Thursday near session cheaps, with the curves flatter with the 30Y Bond outperforming.
• Cash JGBs have twist flattened across benchmarks, with yields 2.2bps higher (5-year) to 3.5bps lower (40-year). Nonetheless, the 5/40 curve remains within the range it has traded in since May 2025 (see chart).
• Swap rates are 1bp higher to 2bps lower, with a flattening bias.
• On Monday, the local calendar will see Core Machine Orders, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation and Tertiary Industry Index data.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Data-Light End To Week, Jobs Data Next Week

ACGBs (YM -2.5 & XM -3.5) are weaker after a relatively subdued data-light end to the trading week.

• Today’s Apr-29 auction demonstrated strong demand for ACGBs, with the weighted average yield settling 0.74bps below the prevailing mid-yield, according to Yieldbroker. Moreover, the cover ratio increased dramatically to 4.5214x, from 3.2200x at the previous auction, underscoring increased investor interest.
• US tsys are slightly cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after finishing Thursday near session cheaps, with the curves flatter with the 30Y Bond outperforming. Friday’s US data is limited to Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization. Otherwise, multiple Fed speakers are scheduled: Boston Fed Collins, Fed VC Bowman and Fed VC Jefferson.
• Cash ACGBs are 3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +55bps.
• The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -4.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing shows tightening across all meetings, with the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 27% for February to 89% by June and 140% by December 2026.  
• On Monday, the local calendar will see Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge.
• A new 21 October 2037 Treasury Bond is planned to be issued via syndication in the week beginning 19 January 2026 (subject to market conditions). 

Bloomberg Finance LP

BONDS: NZGBS: Cheaper With US Tsys But Local Data Likely Weighed

NZGBs closed 4–5bps cheaper, weighed down by a negative overnight lead from US tsys and stronger-than-expected PMI data released today. 

• The BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI surged to 56.1 in Dec, up from a revised 51.7 in Nov. This is the highest print since late 2021.
• The recent rise in the spread between the 1-year forward 3-month swap (1Y3M) and the 3-month rate - often used as a proxy for policy expectations a year ahead - appears consistent with today's PMI data (see chart).
• RBNZ Nowcast Estimate of Q4 GDP rises to 0.9% after Survey data, its highest since it began in early June. “Preliminary nowcast for Q1 GDP shows 1.4% expansion" - BBG
• However, NZ Dec food prices remained soft. They fell 0.3%m/m, after a -0.4% decline in Nov.
• Other detail in the Dec price update generally showed positive m/m gains, particularly for air transport. Today's Dec print comes ahead of next Friday's Q4 CPI print.
• Swap rates closed 3-4bps higher.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. No tightening is priced for February, while December 2026 assigns 37bps.
• On Monday, the local calendar will see State-of-the-Nation Speech by PM Luxon.

Bloomberg Finance LP

JPY: USD/JPY-More BOJ Jaw-Boning Sees A Move To 158.00, Dips Remain Supported

The USD/JPY range today has been 157.98 - 158.70 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around {USDJPY Curncy}. USD/JPY slid lower on yet more BOJ jaw-boning, the move found buyers sub 158.00 again. The BOJ remains in a tough spot, and they are going to need to do something other than just talk to turn around the market's perception. A test of the BOJ/MOF resolve looks inevitable for the moment as the market moves its focus back toward the important 160.00 area. On the day, first support is around 158.00 and then the 157.00-157.50 area as dips continue to be supported. Expect the jaw-boning to increase as the pair moves higher. There are some theories being put up that Monday would be a prime time for intervention being a US holiday, the MOF does favour coming in on days when liquidity is thinner to give it more bang for its buck.

• "RISK OF WEAK YEN HEIGHTENING INFLATIONARY PRESSURE DRAWING INCREASING ATTENTION WITHIN BOJ, SOURCES SAY,: BOJ LIKELY TO RAISE FISCAL 2026 ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION FORECASTS IN QUARTERLY REVIEW DUE NEXT WEEK" (Rtrs)
• “KATAYAMA: CONCERNED ABOUT RECENT YEN WEAKNESS, HAVE SAID TIME AND AGAIN PREPARED TO TAKE BOLD ACTION. AGREEMENT W/ US TREASURY CHIEF INCLUDES INTERVENTION.” - BBG
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 158.00($2.12b), 160.00($4.61b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 155.00($1.26b Jan 20), 158.00($1.24b Jan 21), 159.00($1.43b Jan 19) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 97 Points

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

FOREX: USD - BBDXY Drifts Lower, Still Within Tight 1205-1215 Range

The BBDXY has had a range today of 1210.51 - 1211.96 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around {BBDXY Index}. On the day, it looks like more of the same while we trade within the 1205-1215 range, the Supreme court ruling has been pushed potentially to next week now, though don’t rule out Iran as a potential event risk. A break either side of the range is needed to get some momentum back.

• EUR/USD -  Asian range 1.1603-1.1614, Asia is currently trading {EURUSD Curncy}. We are firmly back in the wider 1.1450-1.1850 range which dominated the last 6 months of the year and we need a catalyst to get a break and some sort of a trend going again.  On the day, watch to see if price can sustain a break sub 1.1600, if it can then it could signal a deeper pullback toward the 1.1550 support first, then the pivotal 1.1400-1.1500 area where I suspect buyers could come back strongly.
• GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3363-1.3391, Asia is currently dealing around {GBPUSD Curncy}. The pair slid lower and is challenging the support below 1.3400, price action is starting to look toppy. On the day, watch to see if sellers can continue to keep the price below 1.3400-1.3430, the bears need a break back below 1.3300-1.3350 to signal a correction lower might be on the cards.
• Cross asset : SPX +0.25%, Gold $4600, US 10-Year 4.1675%, BBDXY 1210, Crude Oil $59.11
• Data/Events : Italy CPI, Germany CPI

Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD/USD-Trying To Push Back Above 0.6700, AUD Outperforms In The Crosses

The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6695 - 0.6705 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around {AUDUSD Curncy}. The AUD/USD is trying its luck back above 0.6700 but its real outperformance is being seen in the crosses. The AUD price action remains constructive and its ability to shrug off the recent bounce in the USD does stand out. Technically while the AUD remains above 0.6600 dips should continue to find support. On the day, the AUD needs to clear the 0.6730 area to regain its upward momentum to have another look above 0.6750 and then beyond.

• Bloomberg - "China is pulling the plug on a key advantage held by high-frequency traders, removing servers dedicated to those firms out of local exchanges’ data centers, according to people familiar with the matter."  NSN T752CSKK3NY9 <GO>
• This seems to have given metals another source of headwinds in our session.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6600(AUD1.98b), 0.6640(AUD1.24b), 0.6800(AUD2.51b) . Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6625(AUD833m Jan19), 0.6800(AUD860m Jan20) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 42 Points

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

NZD/USD - Bounces As Good Data Starts To Mount, 0.5800-0.5850 Pivotal

The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5737-0.5758 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around {NZD Curncy}. The NZD has pushed a little higher in our session and another set of stronger data is providing some headwinds for the NZD bears. The NZD has technically put in what looks like a top around 0.5850 and while this continues to cap it should imply bounces are faded. Yet the strength of the data that is starting to mount cannot be ignored and should the USD come back under pressure the NZD would be vulnerable with a market that is positioned short. On the day, the NZD bears will be looking for sellers again back toward 0.5760-0.5780 hoping any bounce will be capped below the pivotal 0.5800-0.5850 area. Always tough to preempt a move so would wait for a definitive break back above 0.5850 before thinking of turning long but the data is flashing some warning signs.

• MNI AU - “RBNZ Nowcast Estimate of 4q GDP Rises to 0.9% After Survey. Shows GDP expanding 0.9% q/q. Gauge rose from 0.6% a week earlier, and is highest since it began in early June. Preliminary nowcast for 1q GDP shows 1.4% expansion" - BBG (not surprising after this week's data).
• MNI AU - “PMI Surges, Led By New Orders, Points To Improved Growth Outlook: The New Zealand BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI surged to 56.1 in Dec, up from a revised 51.7 in Nov. This is the highest print since late 2021. Sharp spikes and more elevated readings in the PMI often lead to better y/y GDP momentum. The rise in the PMI is consistent with other sentiment readings, most notably the ANZ confidence and activity prints from late 2025. This points to improving NZ economic momentum through the tail end of 2025 and into 2026. It's likely to reinforce an on hold RBNZ backdrop in the near term. Market pricing has an RBNZ hike priced more towards year end. Any bring forward of this view, given growth is coming from a low base, may rely on stronger inflation (note get Q4 NZ inflation data next Friday).
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5600(NZD351m), 0.5800(NZD420m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5895(NZD300m Jan 19) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 36 Points

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIA STOCKS: Taiwan Stocks Surge On TSMC, US-Taiwan Trade Deal, China Softer

Asia Pac equities are mixed, with Japan and China/HK markets struggling. Tech led plays in terms of Taiwan and South Korea are outperforming, aided by TSMC's strong results from yesterday,  along with the US-Taiwan trade deal announcement. US Equity futures are drifting higher, but remain within recent ranges. Eminis were last near 7000, while Nasdaq futures were up a little over 0.30%. 

• Japan markets look to remain in consolidation mode after the earlier surge in the week amid speculation of an early election (we should find out more on this at the start of next week). The NKY was last just under 54k. Today has also seen a strong yen backdrop, amid a fresh FX intervention warning from the FinMin. Offshore investors continue to purchase local equities per weekly flow data.
• In China, BBG reported the authorities were clamping down on high frequency traders. This follows the earlier move this week around increasing margin requirements. Via BBG: "Some of the exchange‑traded funds heavily owned by China’s so‑called national team saw record outflows." The CSI 300 was up earlier today, but now sits down modestly, with near term resistance still evident above 4800. The HSI in HK is off around 0.30%.
• Taiwan's Taiex has risen to fresh record highs. We were last around +1.8%, putting the index above 31300. TSMC's bumper profit result late yesterday, particularly in terms of the capex and sales outlook for 2026, is aiding broader chip/AI related sentiment. The Kospi continues to rally, up a further 0.60%.
• In South East Asia most markets are higher except for the Philippines and Malaysia. Gains elsewhere are less than 0.50% at this stage though. Offshore investors have been net buyers of Indonesian and Malaysia stocks so far this year.  

OIL: Hold Thursday Losses, Flat On Week, US Military Build Up Continues

Oil benchmarks are holding a little weaker in the first part of Friday dealings, after sharp losses on Thursday, as the threat of near term strikes from the US on Iran appear to have receded. WTI was last near $59.10/bbl, while Brent was close to $63.60/bbl (both benchmarks fell by more than 4% on Thursday). We are now back to little changed for the week for both oil benchmarks. 

• Still, market sentiment is likely to remain skittish, as Fox News reported that the US continues to push military assets into the region: via BBG: "Washington is boosting its military presence in the Middle East. At least one aircraft carrier is moving into the region and other military assets are expected to be shifted there in the coming days and weeks, Fox News reported, citing military sources."
• For WTI futures, a bull cycle remains intact for now and the move lower from Wednesday’s high appears corrective. Price has traded through a key short-term resistance at $61.25, the Oct 25 high, this week. This strengthens the bull phase and highlights a stronger reversal of the recent downtrend. Sights are on $62.59 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $58.64, the 50-day EMA.
• More broadly, focus will remain on surplus risks in the oil space, with this the clear desire from a US administration standpoint as Trump seeks to lower (or keep low) gasoline/fuel prices onshore in the US. 

PRECIOUS METALS: Gold - Consolidating Around $4600/oz

The range overnight for gold was $4,582.52/oz - $4,624.70/oz, Asia is currently trading around {XAU Curncy}. Gold has found demand back toward the $4575 area keeping it well supported and negating any reversion back to the mean for now. Yesterday investors shrugged off the US decision to refrain from imposing tariffs on critical minerals after the initial knee-jerk lower. Metals have been on a meteoric rise in the last quarter of last year and started the year in a similar vein as the “debasement trade” seems to be growing in popularity. It is always very hard to call a top in any asset moving with the velocity metals are but it is certainly looking stretched and prudence is warranted. Initial support lies back toward the $4,560-$4580/oz area; a break below here is needed to potentially signal a deeper pullback toward $4450-$4500/oz. The bulls will be looking for this support to hold and regain momentum to test above the $4650 tops.

• Bloomberg - “Polish Central Bank Governor Wants to Lift Gold Holdings to 700t. Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski wants to ask the management board for permission to increase gold holdings from 550 tons now, or ~28% of total reserves, to 700t. Says won’t detail when the 700t target will be reached.”
• The XAU Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: $66.38

Fig 1 : Gold Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL) 

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
16/01/2026	0700/0800	***	DE	Germany CPI (f)
16/01/2026	0700/0800	***	DE	Germany CPI (f)
16/01/2026	0900/1000	**	IT	Italy Final HICP
16/01/2026	0900/1000	***	IT	HICP (f)
16/01/2026	1000/1000		GB	BOE Bailey at Bellagio meeting (with Lombardelli) Text
16/01/2026	1315/0815	**	CA	CMHC Housing Starts
16/01/2026	1330/0830	*	CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
16/01/2026	1415/0915	***	US	Industrial Production
16/01/2026	1500/1000	**	US	NAHB Home Builder Index
16/01/2026	1550/1050		US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
16/01/2026	1600/1100		US	Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman
16/01/2026	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
16/01/2026	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
16/01/2026	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
16/01/2026	2030/1530		US	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson