EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Tokyo CPI Y/Y Rebounds In Oct

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
UK
POLITICS (BBG): "UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ estate agent apologized and took responsibility after it emerged she’d rented out her family home without a license, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer backed her to stay in her post following the furor."
EU
ECB (MNI ECB WATCH): The European Central Bank as expected held the deposit rate at 2% for a third consecutive meeting on Thursday, with President Christine Lagarde saying some risks to growth have abated and pointing to progress in trade talks involving the EU and China, the U.S. and China, and a peace-fire in Gaza.
GERMANY (BBG): "Germany is considering using public funds to pay Deutsche Telekom AG and other telecom operators to replace Huawei Technologies Co. equipment, people familiar with the matter said."
SWITZERLAND (BBG): "The Swiss National Bank won’t shy away from stepping into currency markets if required, while interest rates are the key tool, according one its top officials."
US
GOVERNMENT (THE HILL): “President Trump on Thursday called on Senate Republicans to initiate the “nuclear option” and get rid of the filibuster, which would allow them to end the government shutdown and pass legislation with a simple majority.”
US/CHINA (BBG): " The US will proceed with an investigation that opens the door to new tariffs on goods from China, despite the two nations’ fresh truce, President Donald Trump’s top trade negotiator said."
TECH (BBG): "Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud unit posted the strongest growth rate in almost three years, reassuring investors who were concerned that the largest seller of rented computing power was losing ground to rivals."
TECH (BBG): "Apple Inc. predicted a major sales surge during the holiday season after releasing new iPhones, helping assure investors that its flagship product remains a growth engine. "
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): The year-on-year rise in Tokyo’s core consumer price index accelerated to 2.8% in October from 2.5% in September, marking the 12th consecutive month above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed Friday.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s industrial production rose 2.2% m/m in September, the first increase in three months following August’s 1.5% decline, led by higher output of production machinery, though automobile production growth slowed, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed Friday.
NEW ZEALAND (BBG): “ Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee external member Prasanna Gai speaks on a policy panel Friday in Melbourne, according to speaking notes published on RBNZ website. “For a small open economy like New Zealand, the US tariffs have acted as negative demand shock”
CHINA
MANUFACTURING (MNI BRIEF): “China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell by 0.8 points to 49.0 in October from September, hitting a six-month low and staying below the breakeven 50 mark for the seventh month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday.”
CONSTRUCTION (MNI BRIEF): China’s construction business activity index, a key sub-index of the non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), fell to 49.1% in October, down 0.2 percentage points from September, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Friday.
CONSUMPTION (YICAI): "Authorities will expand the product categories offered by duty-free shops to mobile phones, micro drones, sporting goods, health supplements, over-the-counter drugs, and pet food, to boost consumption, according to a document released by the Ministry of Finance and four other departments, Yicai.com reported."
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY187.1 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY355.1 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY187.1 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY168 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0880 Fri; +0.70% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.0880 on Friday, compared with 7.0864 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1190 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND OCT ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENC 92.4; PRIOR 94.6
AUSTRALIA Q3 PPI Y/Y 3.5%; PRIOR 3.4%
AUSTRALIA SEP PRIVATE CREDIT Y/Y 7.3%; PRIOR 7.3%
JAPAN SEP JOBLESS RATE 2.6%; MEDIAN 2.5%; PRIOR 2.6%
JAPAN SEP JOB-TO-APPLICANT RATIO 1.2; MEDIAN 1.2; PRIOR 1.2
JAPAN OCT TOKYO CPI Y/Y 2.8%; MEDIAN 2.4%; PRIOR 2.5%
JAPAN OCT TOKYO CPI, EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y 2.8%; MEDIAN 2.6%; PRIOR 2.5%
JAPAN OCT TOKYO CPI, EX FRESH FOOD, ENERGY Y/Y 2.8%; MEDIAN 2.6%; PRIOR 2.5%
JAPAN SEP RETAIL SALES Y/Y0.5%; MEDIAN 0.7%; PRIOR -0.9%
JAPAN SEP INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y 3.4%; MEDIAN 1.8%; PRIOR -1.6%
JAPAN SEP HOUSING STARTS Y/Y -7.3%; MEDIAN -7.8%; PRIOR -9.8%
CHINA OCT MANUFACTURING PMI 49.0; MEDIAN 49.6; PRIOR 49.8
CHINA OCT NON-MANUFACTURING PMI 50.1; MEDIAN 50.1: PRIOR 50.0
CHINA OCT COMPOSITE PMI 50.0; PRIOR 50.6
MARKETS
US TSYS: Futures Caught in Technical Range, 10-Yr Back Above 4.10%
Month end flows were not evident in Asia today with futures doing very little. TYZ5 barely troubled the scorers down just -01 at 112-21+. TYZ5 is currently at the mid-point below the 50-day EMA of 112-26+ and the 100-day EMA of 112-11+.

Cash was quiet also with many maturities failing to hold earlier gains, remaining unchanged Friday.
With PCE not set to be released tonight due to the government shutdown, focus is on MNI Chicago PMI (40.6 prior, 42.0 estimate) and speeches from Cleveland Fed Hammack & Atlanta Fed Bostic.
Auction wise focus tonight is US$110bn 4-week bills and US$95bn 8-week bills.
JGBS: 2yr JGB Yield Weaker Post Solid Auction, Futures Supported Post Tokyo CPI Dip
JGB futures are up from earlier lows, last 136.13, -.08 versus settlement levels. There was an early dip, aided by the firmer Tokyo CPI print, but there was no follow through. Recent ranges still hold for JGB futures. In the cash JGB space, yield losses have been move evident at the front end, aided by a solid 2yr debt auction (bid to cover of 4.35 versus 2.814 prior). The 2yr yield is down close to 2bps to 0.915%. The broader uptrend in the yield since April of this year remains intact (the 2/30s curve is a touch steeper at +213bps). The 10yr JGB is steady at 1.65%.
AUSSIE BONDS: 3yr Yield Near Cash Rate, +25bps Firmer This Week, RBA Next Tues
Aussie bond futures have traded a tight range so far today, the 3yr (YM) at 96.37 currently and 10yr (XM) 95.675. These levels are largely holding losses seen this week, as the Q3 CPI beat saw easing risks for this year significantly curtailed. The 3yr ACGB yield is up close to 25bps so far this week, the biggest weekly rise since 2024. We were last near 3.61% so around the RBA cash rate, while the 10yr is a little higher above 4.30%.
BONDS: NZGBS: A False Break Higher For Yields? Next Week Q3 Jobs Data
NZGB yields are finishing the weak on a softer note, down around 2-4bps across the curve, with the back end leading. The 2yr and the 10yr benchmarks are back under 20-day EMA resistance points, which were tested earlier this week. In yield terms, this is underperforming the US and Australian market trends. The NZ-US spread is back close to -4bps, near recent lows. Obviously catalysts today haven't that apparent for the yield losses seen. Still, we did have a softer ANZ NZ consumer sentiment print earlier, while RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external member Prasanna Gai noted the negative demand impact of tariffs, which has offset some the easing the central bank has done.
JPY: Asia-Pac: USD/JPY Tries Lower On CPI And MOF Jaw-Boning
The USD/JPY range has been 153.65 - 154.17 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 154.00, -0.10%. The pair fell away thanks to a combination of a strong CPI print and some jaw-boning from the MOF. The pair remains a buy on dips though thanks to a combination of a hawkish FED and a BOJ that is still unsure about when it will raise rates. We are approaching some tough resistance back toward the 154/155 area and I would expect we might to do some work around here initially before moving higher. A break back above 155 could potentially see the move begin to accelerate and with that the potential for further intervention, though personally I think they will wait for levels closer to 160 to get involved.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
FOREX: Asia-Pac FX: The USD Consolidates Overnight Gains, BBDXY Eyes 1220-1230
The BBDXY has had a range of 1217.20 - 1218.39 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1218, -0.05%. The USD accelerated higher overnight helped by the move in US yields which had a significant bounce. The 1220-30 area remains tough resistance, only a sustained close back above 1230 would start to challenge the conviction of the USD shorts. The price action though is starting to look more constructive as higher lows are being made on the Daily chart through October. A move back above 1230 would potentially signal a medium term low is in place and deeper pullback is on the cards. We do have month-end tonight so there could be some further portfolio adjustments to get through.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia-Pac: AUD/USD Quiet Session, Ignores Bounce In US Stocks
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6547 - 0.6560 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6550, -0.10%. The AUD is consolidating around 0.6550, having shrugged off the bounce in US stocks. The AUD failed to extend above the 0.6600 area and has slipped lower as the USD continues its attempt to build a base from which to move higher. The AUD/USD is back within its recent 0.6400-0.6600 range with the pivot being around its current level around 0.6550.
Fig 1: AUD/JPY spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia-Pac: NZD/USD Moves Back To Overnight Lows On Gai Comments
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5728 - 0.5745 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5730, -0.20%. RBNZ committee member Prassanna Gai made some comments that saw the NZD move back to its overnight lows in our session. The NZD has run into solid resistance towards the 0.5800 area, this is the kind of price action the shorts would appreciate. While price remains below the 0.5800/50 area I suspect rallies will continue to be faded looking for a potential move back towards the 0.5500/0.5600 area. NZD continues to stand out as a short against a resurgent USD but it is worth noting that because of the size of the market traders can very quickly become all positioned the same way, so I think the USD will need to build on its challenge higher for the NZD to test those lows.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: KOSPI + NIKKEI Lead Whilst China's Bourses Stumble into Month End
Weaker than expected Official PMIs may have been the catalyst for significant falls in the HSI today, dragging China's major bourses with it. Opening the trading day with modest gains, the falls in Hong Kong began just after the release that showed that state owned enterprises remain in contraction. Elsewhere the post Trump / XI meeting response continues to be broadly positive with the NIKKEI and the KOSPI continuing to lead the gainers in the region. Despite solid Apple Inc results at the start of the Asia trading day, tech stocks weren't the key driver for China, whilst in Korea and Taiwan, Samsung and TSMC reached yet new highs.
India's NIFTY 50 hit new highs Wednesday of 26,053 but fell yesterday into the close on profit taking. Opening up +0.20% Friday sees week to date gains of 0.50%

Oil in Weekly Decline as Brent Challenges Key Technical

Gold Fails to Break 20-day EMA, Moves Lower

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 31/10/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | Import/Export Prices | |
| 31/10/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 31/10/2025 | 0730/0830 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 31/10/2025 | 0745/0845 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 31/10/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** | PPI | |
| 31/10/2025 | 0930/0930 | Blue Book / Pink Book | ||
| 31/10/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EZ HICP Flash | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EZ HICP Flash | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | Italy Flash Inflation | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EZ HICP Flash | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Gross Domestic Product by Industry | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Personal Income and Consumption | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Employment Cost Index | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Gross Domestic Product by Industry | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1330/0930 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | ||
| 31/10/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | MNI Chicago PMI | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1500/1100 | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | ||
| 31/10/2025 | 1600/1200 | Fed's Beth Hammack, Raphael Bostic | ||
| 31/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly | |
| 31/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |