EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: Risk Off Remains In Focus Amid Crypto Weakness

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
UK
BOE (MNI BRIEF): UK firms are continuing to consider the risk of inflation persistence in their price-setting behaviour, according to the Bank of England's Decision Makers Panel survey, Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said on Monday, adding that led her to oppose easing.
BOE (RTRS/BBG): "The Bank of England is preparing to ease parts of Britain’s bank ring-fencing regime while opposing a major reform sought by lenders, Reuters reports, citing people that it didn’t identify."
POLITICS (TIMES): “Almost half of all Labour voters want Sir Keir Starmer out of Downing Street by the time of the next election, polling for The Times has found. The YouGov survey of 2,100 people found that 23 per cent of Labour voters think the prime minister should quit now and allow the party to elect a new leader. A further 22 per cent think he should stand down at some point before the next election.”
FINANCE (TIMES): “Savers will have up to £120,000 reimbursed if their bank or building society goes bust after the City regulator lifted the deposit protection limit from £85,000 to reflect inflation.”
EU
POLAND (MNI INTERVIEW): Poland wants the European Commission to take further "concrete" and "tangible" efforts to mitigate the impact of the extension of the ETS2 emissions trading system on consumers and businesses, the country’s Deputy Climate and Environment Minister Krzysztof Bolesta told MNI, stressing that a recently-agreed one-year delay was not enough.
FRANCE/UKRAINE (BBC): “Ukraine will get up to 100 of France's Rafale F4 fighter jets as well as advanced air defence systems in a major deal to boost Kyiv's ability to protect itself against deadly Russian attacks.”
POLAND (BBC): “Poland's prime minister has said an explosion on a railway line leading to the Ukraine border this weekend was caused by "an unprecedented act of sabotage", and vowed to catch those responsible "regardless of who their backers are". Speaking later in Warsaw, after an emergency meeting of security officials, Poland's special services minister said there was a "very high chance" that the blast was carried out on the orders of "foreign services".”
FINLAND/UKRAINE (POLITICO): “The U.S. needs to push ahead with a new round of sanctions to cripple Russian industry and finally bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, Finnish leader Alexander Stubb told POLITICO in an interview.”
US
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday the central bank should cut interest rates again next month because the labor market continues to deteriorate, while the inflationary effect of tariffs will be temporary.
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): The Federal Reserve should lean toward holding interest rates steady at its next meeting in December to continue to put downward pressure on inflation and keep its policy options open, the former director of the Division of International Finance at the Fed Board of Governors, Nathan Sheets, told MNI.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Monday advised caution in adjusting rates as monetary policy nears neutral.
RUSSIA (POLITICO): “The Senate will bring forward legislation that would sanction Russia’s trading partners, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Monday, pushing a bill placing added pressure on Russia to end its war with Ukraine.”
CRYPTO (BBG): "Bitcoin dropped below $90,000, deepening a month-long slide that has erased the cryptocurrency’s gains for 2025 and rocked sentiment across the digital-asset world."
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at 0630 GMT on Tuesday, Nikkei reported. The two are expected to exchange views on economic and financial developments.
JAPAN (BBG): " Japan is mounting a broad diplomatic effort to ease tensions with China after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan sparked a sharp backlash from Beijing that raised fears of a breakdown in economic ties.
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): Stronger demand, reduced supply capacity and signs that the 3.6% cash rate may not be as restrictive as previously thought could lead the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold rates at coming meetings, minutes of the Board’s November session showed Tuesday.
MIDDLE EAST (BBG): "President Donald Trump said the US would sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, offering Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a prize he’s long cherished — even though many obstacles remain before he gets the stealthy planes."
MIDDLE EAST (BBG): "The United Nations Security Council approved a resolution backing President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, in a move the US said would help bolster the fragile truce between Israel and Hamas."
CHINA
TECH (BBG): "Apple Inc.’s iPhone 17 series drove a 37% rise in its monthly smartphone sales in China, signaling strong momentum in a key market."
HOUSING (SECURITIES TIMES): "Chinese banks are increasingly selling residential properties directly through online platforms at prices well below market value, signaling a shift in how financial institutions handle distressed assets, according to a commentary published by the Securities Times Tuesday."
INVESTMENT (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): China will continue advancing major construction projects tied to national strategy and security over the next five years, with a possible expansion in the issuance of special sovereign bonds to fund them, Shanghai Securities News says in a report, citing unnamed analysts.
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY3.7 Bln via OMO Tuesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY407.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY3.7 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY403.8 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0856 Tues; +1.99% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.0856 on Tuesday, compared with 7.0816 set on Monday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1114 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND NON RESIDENT BOND HOLDINGS OCT. 60.3%; SEP. 59.6%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 RBNZ HOUSEHOLD INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 2YR 3.0%; Q3 3.0%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 RBNZ BUSINESS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 2YR 2.39%; Q3 2.64%
SOUTH KOREA
MARKETS
US TSYS: Risk-Off Pushes Yields Lower
TYZ5 is dealing at 112-26, -0-05+ from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session, as risk turns down, led by Bitcoin.
JGBS: Twist-Steepener, 2/30 YC Back Near Highs, PM/BOJ Meeting Due
JGB futures have clawed back to unchanged versus settlement levels.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
AUSSIE BONDS: Risk-Off Drives Bond Rally Ahead Of WPI Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM +4.0 & XM +3.5) are richer and at session highs as risk turns down, led by Bitcoin.

Bloomberg Finance LP
BONDS: NZGBS: May-36 Yield Finishes At Low After Tap
NZGBs closed showing a twist-flattener, with benchmark yields 1bp higher to 3bps lower.

Bloomberg Finance LP
FOREX: Asia-Pac USD: BBDXY Testing Above 1220 As Risk Extends Lower
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1219.71 - 1220.63 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1220, +0.05%. The USD has drifted sideways in our session even with risk having another leg lower. The USD has bounced nicely off the 1210-1215 support area where it found some solid demand first up. Risk started the week on the backfoot yesterday again and the USD was the beneficiary. I continue to watch for signs of a base forming from which to move higher again if risk stays under pressure. On the day look for dips toward 1217-18 to now be supported first up, a break of the 1221-1222 area remains the pivot on the topside, above there and it could look to rebuild momentum for a test of the 1230-35 area.
Fig 1: EUR/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia-Pac: USD/JPY - Consolidates Gains Above 155.00
The USD/JPY range today has been 155.11 - 155.38 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 155.20, -0.05%. The move lower in risk did not bring the usual bout of Yen buying as its safe haven status begins to be questioned. USD/JPY I suspect will remain well supported on dips as the market remains wary of the new leadership policies together with a reticence to hike rates. I will be watching today to see if the pair can build on its move above 155.00 and regain its momentum higher, look for dips in the Asian session back toward 144.70-144.90 to be supported on dips initially. A sustained move above here and the market will turn its focus back toward 160, much to the displeasure of the MOF/BOJ.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia-Pac: AUD/USD Drifts Lower As Risk-Off Sentiment Grows
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6477 - 0.6499 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6480, -0.25%. The AUD/USD has drifted lower in our session being led by the move lower in risk, driven predominantly by the collapse in Crypto. Bitcoin and Crypto continue to lead this leg lower as leverage is being squeezed, Bitcoin below the pivotal $90k area could add to the current market headwinds. The AUD/USD is testing below 0.6500 this morning, some good support back toward 0.6440-0.6460 which has been pretty solid the last couple of months, then 0.6350 below that. It would need this move lower in risk to accelerate and become something more significant to challenge down there I would think.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia-Pac: NZD/USD - Back Under Pressure As Risk Extends Lower
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5639 - 0.5661 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5640, -0.30%. The NZD/USD has drifted lower in our session with risk continuing to trade under pressure. The NZD reaction lower was still rather underwhelming and continues to hint toward a market that is all the same way and therefore paring back some risk. Should this move lower in risk grow into something more than just a pullback then the NZD should once again come back under pressure though. On the day watch to see if the NZD stalls toward the 0.5665-80 area again looking for a move lower later.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: All Major Markets Down, As Risk Off Grows, Tech Hit Hardest
All the major indices are down in Asia Pac so far today, with tech sensitive plays the worst hit. Japan markets off over 2%, likewise Taiwan, while the South Korean Kospi is down around 3%. Focus remains on the crypto space, where Bitcoin is under 90k, which is fresh lows back to April of this year. Markets will be mindful of deleveraging if we see further downside and spill over to broader risk trends. US equity futures are off, Eminis down close to 0.60%, while Nasdaq futures sit down over 0.750%. Eminis are at levels last seen in mid Oct. The next downside target may be the 100-day EMA near 6586 (we were last around 6654)
GOLD: Weaker, Eyeing Sub $4000, Risk Off Doesn't Aid Sentiment
Gold is back close to $4010, off a further 0.90% so far today. the risk off evident in the crypto space and in equity markets has done little to aid gold safe haven related demand. Some offset is coming from a higher USD (albeit with mixed trends today, higher against higher beta plays, but safe havens, JPY and CHF are rising), as Fed easing expectations remain uncertain. A break under $4000 could bring the 50-day EMA support point into play, which comes in at $3927.5. Initial resistance is at $4264.7.
OIL: Crude Unwinds Week’s Gains As Excess Supply Worries Outweigh Geopolitics
Oil has unwound Monday’s gains during today’s APAC session on weaker risk appetite. WTI is down 0.8% to $59.50/bbl, close to the intraday low, and has traded below $60 over the day. Brent is 0.7% lower at $63.74, the day’s trough. While crude has trended lower over November, geopolitical risks have pushed back against market surplus concerns keeping it in a narrow range.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 18/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | ECB Elderson at Banking Supervision Press Conference | ||
| 18/11/2025 | 1300/1300 | BOE Pill Fireside Chat on MonPol | ||
| 18/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Import/Export Price Index | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1415/0915 | *** | Industrial Production | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | NAHB Home Builder Index | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | Factory New Orders | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | Factory New Orders | |
| 18/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | Fed Governor Michael Barr | ||
| 18/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | ||
| 18/11/2025 | 1700/1700 | BOE Dhingra on Income Growth and Consumption | ||
| 18/11/2025 | 2100/1600 | ** | TICS | |
| 18/11/2025 | 2300/1800 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | ||
| 19/11/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | Machinery orders | |
| 19/11/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy | |
| 19/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** | Quarterly wage price index | |
| 19/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Consumer Inflation Report (1dp) | |
| 19/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Producer Prices | |
| 19/11/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Consumer Inflation Report (2dp) | |
| 19/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EZ Current Account | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EZ HICP Final | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EZ HICP Final | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EZ HICP Final | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 19/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Trade Balance |