MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: China PMI New Export Orders Slump

Apr-30 05:22By: Jonathan Cavenagh

Europe

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

TRUMP EASES AUTO TARIFFS BURDEN AS LUTNICK TOUTS FIRST FOREIGN TRADE DEAL - RTRS
MNI DISCUSSES HOW A DIMINISHED USD COULD IMPACT GLOBAL NEUTRAL RATE - MNI
CHINA APR MANUFACTURING PMI FALLS INTO CONTRACTION - MNI BRIEF
CAIXIN APR MANUFACTURING PMI HITS THREE-MONTH LOW - MNI BRIEF
AUSSIE TRIMMED MEAN AT 0.9% Q/Q - MNI BRIEF

Fig 1: China PMI New Export Orders Down Sharply

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

POLITICS (BBC): “Sir Tony Blair has called for a major rethink of net zero policies, arguing that limiting energy consumption and fossil fuel production is "doomed to fail".”

CHINA (POLITICO): “The U.K. is taking a “calm and steady approach to secure growth and international trade," a government spokesperson said Tuesday. "The U.K.’s pragmatic relationship with China will always be rooted in the interests of working people in the U.K.””

ECB (MNI SOURCES): While there is broad consensus among European Central Bank policymakers that U.S. tariffs will exert downward pressure on inflation for the short term at least, hawks warn that June’s meeting will see lively debate despite a general expectation that it will result in a cut, Eurosystem sources told MNI.

GERMANY/CHINA (YICAI): “Germany welcomes investment by Chinese carmakers and will support joint development of the auto industry, Hildegard Müller, president of the German Automotive Industry Association, told Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao at a recent meeting.”

TRADE (POLITICO): “The European Union and the entire world will suffer as a result of the “unpredictable tariff policy of the U.S. administration,” whose levies are “the highest in a century,” Ursula von der Leyen told the European People's Party congress in Valencia, Spain, on Tuesday.”

TECH (POLITICO): “The European Union is set to admit that untangling from the dominance of U.S. tech companies is “unrealistic” as fears grow over the bloc’s dependence on American giants.”

CHINA (POLITICO): “China is to lift sanctions on five current and former MEPs who have criticized its human right violations, according to a senior Parliament official, clearing the way for trade talks between the two superpowers.”

EU (POLITICO): “The center-right European People’s Party reelected its chair Manfred Weber for a second three-year term.”

RUSSIA (BBG): "President Vladimir Putin is insisting that Russia must take control of four regions of Ukraine it doesn’t fully occupy as part of any agreement to end his war, according to three people in Moscow familiar with the matter."

TRADE/TARIFFS (RTRS): “U.S. President Donald Trump signed a pair of orders to soften the blow of his auto tariffs on Tuesday with a mix of credits and relief from other levies on materials, and his trade team touted its first deal with a foreign trading partner.”

US/CHINA (BBG): "President Donald Trump said China deserved the steep tariffs he imposed on their exports and predicted Beijing could find a way to reduce their impact on American consumers."

FED (MNI INTERVIEW): The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future because inflation remains elevated and the growth outlook strong despite volatility around U.S. trade policy, leaving the direction of any next rate move unclear, former New York Fed staffer Ethan Heisler told MNI.

TARIFFS (RTRS): “ Amazon said on Tuesday its low-cost Haul unit had considered listing import charges for goods in light of new U.S. tariffs but denied looking at such a plan for its main website, after the White House accused it of a hostile political act.”

OTHER

GLOBAL (MNI): MNI discusses how a diminished U.S. dollar could impact the global neutral rate. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke with Donald Trump Tuesday following his Canadian election win, once again suggesting the President backed off threats of making America's northern neighbor the 51st State.

CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet said Tuesday he's willing to keep Mark Carney's Liberal government in power during U.S. trade talks with preliminary results showing the BQ may hold the balance of power in Parliament, brushing off questions about his own leadership after losing a third of his seats.

JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan's industrial production fell 1.1% m/m in March for the first drop in two months following +2.3% in February due to the lower production of automobiles, although production machinery rose, data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Wednesday.

AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): Australian Q1 trimmed mean inflation increased 0.7% q/q, 10 basis points higher than expected, and 2.9% y/y, down from Q4’s 3.3%, data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.

PAKISTAN/INDIA (RTRS): “Pakistan said on Wednesday it has "credible intelligence" that India intends to launch military action soon, as tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours escalate following a deadly attack on tourists in Indian Kashmir.”

CHINA

MANUFACTURING (MNI BRIEF): China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell by 1.5 points to 49.0 in April, falling below the breakeven 50 mark after staying in the expansionary zone for two months, driven by the high-base effect and the dramatically changing external environment, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.

MANUFACTURING (MNI BRIEF): China's Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4 in April, down from March's 51.2, staying in the expansionary zone above the 50 mark for the seventh straight month but hitting a three-month low, the financial publisher said on Wednesday.

TRADE (YICAI): “A recent survey from the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade showed 75% of China’s exporters plan to expand into emerging markets to compensate for declining U.S. sales, Yicai Global reported.

CHINA MARKETS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY422.8 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY530.8 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY422.8 billion after offsetting the maturities of CNY108 billion reverse repos today, according to Wind Information.

The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.5431% at 09:29 am local time from the close of 1.7824% on Tuesday.
The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 49 on Tuesday, compared with the close of 48 on Monday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.2014 Weds; -0.54% Y/Y

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.2014 on Wednesday, compared with 7.2029 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2678 by Bloomberg survey today.

MARKET DATA

NEW ZEALAND APRIL ANZ BUSINESS ACTIVITY OUTLOOK 47.7; MAR. 48.6
NEW ZEALAND APRIL ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE 49.3; MAR. 57.5

AUSTRALIA Q1 TRIMMED MEAN CPI +0.7% Q/Q & 2.9% Y/Y; EST. 0.6% &2.8%; Q4 +0.5% & 3.3%
AUSTRALIA Q1 CONSUMER PRICES +0.9% Q/Q & 2.4% Y/Y; EST. 0.8% & 2.3%; Q4 +0.2% & 2.4%
AUSTRALIA Q1 WEIGHTED MEDIAN CPI +0.7% Q/Q & 3.0% Y/Y; EST. 0.7% & 2.9%; Q4 0.6% & 3.5%

AUSTRALIA MARCH CONSUMER PRICES +2.4% Y/Y; EST. 2.2%; FEB. 2.4%
AUSTRALIA MARCH TRIMMED MEAN CPI +2.7% Y/Y; FEB. 2.7%

AUSTRALIA RBA PRIVATE CREDIT MAR. +0.5% M/M & 6.5% Y/Y; EST. +0.5% & 6.5%; FEB. +0.5% & 6.5%

JAPAN MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -1.1% M/M; EST. -0.4%; FEB. +2.3%
JAPAN MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -0.3% Y/Y; EST. 0.8%; FEB. +0.1%
JAPAN’S METI SEES APRIL OUTPUT TO RISE 1.3% M/M & MAY +3.9%
JAPAN FINAL FEB. F LEADING INDEX 107.9; PRE. 107.9; JAN. 108.2
JAPAN FINAL FEB. COINCIDENT INDEX 117.3; PRE. 116.9; JAN. 116.1

JAPAN MARCH RETAIL SALES -1.2% M/M; EST. -0.7%; FEB. +0.4%
JAPAN MARCH RETAIL SALES +3.1% Y/Y; EST. +3.5%; FEB. +1.3%

CHINA APRIL MANUFACTURING PMI 49.0; EST. 49.7; MAR. 50.5
CHINA APRIL NON-MANUFACTURING PMI 50.4; EST. 50.6; MAR. 50.8
CHINA APRIL COMPOSITE PMI 50.2; MAR. 51.4

CHINA APRIL CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI 50.4; EST. 49.7; MAR. 51.2

S.KOREA MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +2.9% M/M; EST. +0.3%; FEB. +1.4%
S.KOREA MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +5.3% Y/Y ; EST. +3.2%; FEB. +7.1%

SOUTH KOREA MARCH CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX 0.2 PT M/M; FEB +0.1

MARKETS

US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Quiet Session

TYM5 has traded a little higher with a range of 112-04 to 112-09 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-06, up 0-01 from the previous close.

The US 10-year yield is a little lower, dealing around 4.16%, down from its close around 4.1716%.
The US 2-year yield is unchanged, dealing around 3.65%.
US President Trump has spoken at a rally in Michigan, which marks his first 100 days in office. The speech was big on rhetoric, but policy related areas of interest for the market remained light.
“The trade deficit widened to a record in March, and consumer spending slowed, contributing to the GDP growth slowdown.”(per BBG)
MNI Economist re GDP - “Domestic demand should look somewhat more robust but will be clouded by question marks over the extent to which areas of strength were driven by tariff front-running”.
Month End flow will continue to be a key driver tonight.
The 10-year Yield, has put in a lower high around 4.40% and has broken through the recent support around 4.25%. The next support is towards the 4.10 area which should find supply once more.
Data/Events : ADP private jobs data, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE and Home Sales.

JGBS: Modestly Richer, BoJ Decision Tomorrow

JGB futures are modestly stronger, +7 compared to the settlement levels.

Outside of the previously outlined IP and Retail Sales data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
The BoJ is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% tomorrow. This decision comes amid a complicated economic backdrop: while Tokyo’s core inflation rose to 3.4% in April — its highest level in two years, driven by higher food prices and reduced energy subsidies — risks to economic growth are increasing.
Given the significant shifts in external conditions, particularly the US tariff policy changes since the last MPM in March, the BoJ is likely to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see stance at this meeting. (See MNI BoJ Preview here)
Cash US tsys are slightly mixed in today's Asia-Pac session. Today’s US calendar will see ADP private jobs data, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE and Home Sales.
Cash JGBs are flat to 2bps richer (5-year). The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.7bp higher at 1.312%.
Swap rates are 1-3bps lower. Swap spreads are mixed.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will also see Jibun Bank PMI Mfg and Consumer Confidence data.

AUSSIE BONDS: Modestly Cheaper After CPI Beat, Chance 50bp Cut In May Gone

ACGBs (YM flat & XM +2.0) slightly mixed on the day but 1-4bps cheaper after today’s Q1 CPI data.

Q1 headline and underlying inflation printed 0.1pp higher than expected but the trimmed mean at 2.9% y/y is below the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target band for the first time since Q4 2021.
Cash US tsys are slightly mixed in today's Asia-Pac session.
Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at flat.
Swap rates are flat to 4bps lower, with the curve flatter.
The bills strip has twist-flattened, with pricing -5 to +3.
The data is close to the RBA’s expectations and at this stage consistent with inflation sustainably remaining within the band. Thus, another 25bp rate cut to 3.85% is likely on May 20, assuming that easing is consistent with the RBA’s updated outlook.
RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer across meetings after today’s data. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 3% probability, with a cumulative 112bps of easing priced by year-end.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Values, Trade Balance and Q1 Terms of Trade data.
The AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Friday.

BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Richer, Bus Conf Lower, US ADP Data Later

NZGBs closed 1-3bps richer, but slightly off session bests at the long-end.

NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials closed little changed.
Cash US tsys are slightly mixed in today's Asia-Pac session.
ANZ business confidence fell to 49.3 in April from 57.5, the lowest level since July 2024, the month before the start of the RBNZ’s easing cycle. The activity outlook moderated to 47.7 from 48.6, which remains above February’s 45.1.
On a more positive note, the assessment of activity compared to a year ago rose 10 points to 11 driven by services and signalling a strong start to Q2 for GDP growth. Price/cost components trended higher over Q1 but were mixed in April but inflation expectations were stable around 2.6%.
Online job ads fell for the 10th straight quarter on an annual basis.
Swap rates closed 2-5bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 26bps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 83bps by November 2025.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Values ahead of Building Permits on Friday.
Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$150mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.

FOREX: G10 Wrap - USD Trying To Bounce, Market Remains Bearish

The BBDXY has had an Asian range of 1220.99 - 1223.27, Asia is currently trading around 1222. Bloomberg - “ The European union has made tangible offers to Donald Trump's administration in an effort to return stability to the global economy, according to the bloc’s commissioner for international partnerships”. “The ECB’s Yannis Stournaras urged caution with any additional rate cuts due to global uncertainty, but said the deposit is expected to be trimmed to 2%”. US President Trump has spoken at a rally in Michigan, which marks his first 100 days in office. The speech was big on rhetoric, but policy related areas of interest for the market remained light.

EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1355 - 1.1396, Asia is currently trading 1.1370. Intra-day support is around 1.1300, should this area not hold demand should remerge on dips back to 1.1100.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3382 - 1.3415, the GBP momentum seems to be stalling towards the decent Weekly resistance around 1.3500. Intra-day support 1.3280 area.
USD/JPY - Asian range 142.17 - 142.55, has drifted higher for most of the Asia session. On the day the 143 handle should once again offer supply, then more importantly the 145/146 area should once more offer good levels for sellers to reengage. A break back below 142.00 and the market will once again turn its focus on the pivotal 140.00 area.
USD/CNH - Asian range 7.2619 - 7.2761, the USD/CNY fix printed lower again at 7.2014. Will need to get back above 7.3000 again to start thinking about moving higher again. The longer it stays below there the higher the chance of weaker longs being forced to pare back exposure.
Cross asset : SPX -0.44%, Gold $3303, US 10-Year yield 4.16%, BBDXY 1222, Crude oil $59.68.
Data/Events : French & Italian GDP, US ADP private jobs data, GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE and Home Sales.

Fig 1: USD/JPY Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

FOREX: Antipodean Wrap - AUD Pops On Higher Than Expected Inflation

MNI Aus Economist - Monthly trimmed mean and headline data for March were unchanged from February at 2.7% y/y and 2.4% respectively. The latter was higher-than-forecast. The trimmed mean has been around 2.7% for four consecutive months now, which is consistent with the RBA’s projection that it could remain around this rate and not make any further progress towards the 2.5%-target mid-point in 2025. Given global developments though, the outlook remains highly uncertain. Bloomberg - “New Zealand business confidence fell to a nine-month low in April due to US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. ANZ Bank revised down its outlook for New Zealand's economic growth and expects the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate to 2.5% this year from 3.5% currently.”

AUD/USD - Asian range 0.6379 - 0.6407, the AUD got a quick 20/30 point boost from a higher than expected CPI. Momentum though has been stalling above 0.6400 the last few days. Watch the support around 0.6350 if this gives way, look for buyers to return back towards 0.6250.
AUD/JPY - Asian range 90.75 - 91.21. Price goes into the London trading around 91.20, continues to trade sideways in a range of 0.8950/0.9200.
NZDUSD - Asian range 0.5924 - 0.5945, going into London trading around 0.5930. Demand should return first around 0.5900, then around the 0.5800 area.
AUD/NZD - Asian range 1.0744 - 1.0797, the cross has benefited from the AU CPI in the Asian session. Watch for supply to return on any bounce back towards the 1.0850 area.

Fig 1 : AUD/USD Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

ASIA STOCKS: China Bank Earnings Look Challenging

The anticipated release of earnings from China major banks sees an earnings downdraft as stimulus measures last year eroded margins and now the looming trade war poses a further threat. ICBC saw net income down 4% in Q1 driving shares lower by 6%.

In Korea Samsung shares were down even though net income was better than expected as forward looking assessments question the ability to sustain the chip demand seen in recent reporting periods.

A quiet day for China’s major bourses, weighed down by the banking results with the Hang Seng up just +0.22%, CSI 300 +0.07%, Shanghai Comp -0.08% and Shenzhen the outperformer up +0.94%.
The KOSPI was the one of the strugglers today as it slipped -0.63% on tech concerns, fuelled by Samsung’s release.
Malyaia's FTSE KLCI bounced back from yesterdays fall to gain +0.83% today.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite continued its good run gaining +0.45 and is up over 4% for the month.
The FTSE Straits Times in Singapore rose +0.39% and the PSEi in Philippines jumped +1.54% on strong trade data.
India’s NIFTY 50 is up +0.21% in early trading and if maintained has delivered gains of over +3.5% for the month.

OIL: Crude Continues Sharp Sell Off On Demand Concerns, Key Data Out Later

Oil has continued to sell off during today’s APAC session after falling around 3% on Tuesday on continued concerns regarding the impact of US trade policy on global energy demand and that OPEC will decide on another outsized output increase when it meets on Monday. Following soft US consumer confidence and Dallas Fed data, Q1 GDP & core PCE prices later today will be monitored closely for any signs of weakening growth related to tariffs. Today’s China manufacturing PMI was lower with export orders down sharply in line with ship-tracking of China-US flows.

WTI has fallen below $60/bbl today and is currently down 1.3% to $59.63 to be down 16% in April, worse than April 2020. It reached $59.56, the lowest since April 11, but still above initial support at $58.29. The USD index is down slightly.
Brent breached $63/bbl earlier in the session and is now 1.0% lower at $62.63, holding above support at $61.51. It is down 15.5% this month.
China’s official manufacturing PMI for April fell to 49.0 from 50.5, below expectations, while the Caixin PMI decreased to 50.4 from 51.2, above consensus.
Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory build of 3.8mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Products continued to destock with gasoline down 3.1mn and distillate 2.5mn. The official EIA data is out today.
Later US Q1 GDP & employment costs, March core PCE prices, April MNI Chicago PMI & ADP employment print. Also preliminary April euro area CPI, Q1 GDP including Germany, France & Italy, German March retail sales & unemployment are released. BoE’s Lombardelli speaks.

GOLD: As Trade Tensions Ease, Gold Softens

The push pull of the USD overnight as a stronger dollar saw gold soften.
As market expectations around tariffs now easing permeated through investor thinking the dollar had a better night which makes gold’s purchase price more expensive
Gold opened in Asia USD3,315.26 and declined steadily throughout the day to $3,303.06
Gold continues to sit above all major moving averages with the nearest the 20-day EMA of $3,245.48
The Thai Central Bank meets today and according to the BOT governor at a ceremony yesterday Thailand needs to brace for a ‘storm’ from the trade war and has increased their gold holdings accordingly.
Gold ETF’s have experienced six straight days of outflows according to BBG.
Gold remains one of the best performers year to date up 27% and the recent softening in prices appears likely driven by profit taking than a fundamental change in the outlook for bullion.

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
30/04/2025	0530/0730	***	FR	GDP (p)
30/04/2025	0530/0730	**	FR	Consumer Spending
30/04/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Import/Export Prices
30/04/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Retail Sales
30/04/2025	0600/1400	**	CN	MNI China Money Market Index (MMI)
30/04/2025	0645/0845	***	FR	HICP (p)
30/04/2025	0645/0845	**	FR	PPI
30/04/2025	0700/0900	**	CH	KOF Economic Barometer
30/04/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	Unemployment
30/04/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	GDP (p)
30/04/2025	0800/1000	***	IT	GDP (p)
30/04/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	Bavaria CPI
30/04/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
30/04/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	Baden Wuerttemberg CPI
30/04/2025	0900/1100	***	IT	HICP (p)
30/04/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
30/04/2025	0900/1100	***	EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q
30/04/2025	0900/1100	***	EU	EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y
30/04/2025	1000/1200	**	IT	PPI
30/04/2025	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
30/04/2025	1200/1400	***	DE	HICP (p)
30/04/2025	1215/0815	***	US	ADP Employment Report
30/04/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
30/04/2025	1230/0830	***	US	GDP
30/04/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Employment Cost Index
30/04/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
30/04/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Treasury Quarterly Refunding
30/04/2025	1342/0942	***	US	MNI Chicago PMI
30/04/2025	1400/1000	**	US	NAR Pending Home Sales
30/04/2025	1400/1000	***	US	Personal Income and Consumption
30/04/2025	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
30/04/2025	1530/1630		GB	BOE Lombardelli At New Economics Teacher Training Launch
30/04/2025	1730/1330		CA	BOC Meeting Minutes
01/05/2025	2300/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/05/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/05/2025	0130/1130	**	AU	Trade price indexes
01/05/2025	0130/1130	**	AU	Trade Balance
01/05/2025	0200/1100	***	JP	BOJ Policy Rate Announcement
01/05/2025	0630/0830	**	CH	Retail Sales
01/05/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	BOE Lending to Individuals
01/05/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	BOE M4
01/05/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/05/2025	-	***	US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/05/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
01/05/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
01/05/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final)