EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: China Manufacturing PMI Edges Up, But Still Sub 50.0

UK
POLITICS (BBG): "Keir Starmer is working to contain the rebellion in his Labour Party ahead of a vote Tuesday on his flagship welfare policy that’s provoked widespread criticism and called his leadership into doubt."
EU
FRANCE (BBG): “French finance minister Eric Lombard said the European Union can clinch some form of a trade agreement with the US before a July 9 deadline, when Washington is set to impose a 50% tariff on nearly all EU products.”
RUSSIA (BBG): “Russia is taking another crack at expanding exports of liquefied natural gas after US sanctions stalled efforts last year.”
UKRAINE (RTRS): “A Ukrainian F-16 fighter pilot died in a crash while repelling a Russian air attack that involved hundreds of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, authorities said on Sunday, as Moscow intensifies night-time air barrages in the fourth year of war.”
US
FED (MNI BRIEF): Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said one potential timeline for the announcement of a new Fed chair could come in October or November, playing down speculation that President Donald Trump may consider an earlier move to nominate a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
FISCAL (RTRS): “ Senate Republicans pushed forward President Donald Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending bill on Sunday in a marathon weekend session even as a nonpartisan forecaster said it would add an estimated $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt over a decade”.
OTHER
GLOBAL (MNI): Central bank leaders must be prepared to aggressively tighten monetary policy if the U.S.-led trade war boosts inflation, and protect credibility damaged during the Covid price jump by avoiding forward guidance, the BIS annual report said Sunday.
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Sunday a trade deal with the U.S. is back on track for next month after his country scrapped a digital sales tax, a move coming two days after President Donald Trump broke off talks over the levy.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s industrial output rose 0.5% m/m in May, the first increase in two months, after a 1.1% decline in April, driven by higher automobile production, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed Monday.
JAPAN (BBG): "US President Donald Trump floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on Japan’s cars as talks between the two nations continued with little more than a week to go before a slew of higher duties are set to kick in if a trade deal isn’t reached."
AUSTRALIA (BBG): “ Australia cut its forecast earnings from commodity exports, as a meteoric rise in gold prices fails to offset weakness in iron ore and natural gas.”
CHILE (BBG): “Chile communist Jeannette Jara won the primary vote among left-wing presidential candidates after mounting a last-minute surge, trouncing other contenders including a moderate politician who was the early favorite.”
CHINA
CHINA (MANUFACTURING): China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose by 0.2 points to 49.7 in June, but remained below the breakeven 50 mark for the third month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday.
FISCAL (CSJ): "China could sell more ultra-long special sovereign bonds in the second half of this year in addition to what was planned in the annual budget if needed, the China Securities Journal reports Monday, citing analysts."
POLICY RATES (SECURITIES DAILY): " China’s central bank has adjusted its stance on policy fine-tuning, indicating that interest rate and banks’ reserve requirement ratio cuts are less pressing due to the economy’s solid momentum, the Securities Daily reports Monday, citing Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit."
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY111 Bln via OMO Monday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY331.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY111 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY220.5 reverse repo today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1586 Mon; +1.41% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1586 on Monday, compared with 7.1627 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1704 by Bloomberg survey today.
MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.56% In Week of Jun 27
The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 95.36 on Jun 27, down 0.56% compared with 95.92 as of Jun 20.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND MAY FILLED JOBS M/M 0.1%; PRIOR -0.3%
NEW ZEALAND JUNE ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK 40.9; PRIOR 34.8
NEW ZEALAND JUNE ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE 46.3; PRIOR 36.6
AUSTRALIA JUNE MELBOURNE INSTITUTE INFLATION M/M 0.1%; PRIOR -0.4%
AUSTRALIA JUNE MELBOURNE INSTITUTE INFLATION Y/Y 2.4%; PRIOR 2.6%
AUSTRALIA MAY PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M 0.5%; PRIOR 0.7%
JAPAN MAY P INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M 0.5%; MEDIAN 3.5%; PRIOR -1.1%
JAPAN MAY P INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y -1.8%; MEDIAN 1.6%; PRIOR 0.5%
JAPAN MAY HOUSING STARTS Y/Y -34.4%; PRIOR -26.6%
CHINA JUNE MANUFACTURING PMI 49.7; MEDIAN 49.6; PRIOR 49.5
CHINA JUNE NON-MANUFACTURING PMI 50.5; MEDIAN 50.3; PRIOR 50.3
CHINA JUNE COMPOSITE PMI 50.7; PRIOR 50.4
SOUTH KOREA MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M -2.9%; MEDIAN 0.5%; PRIOR -0.6%
SOUTH KOREA MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y 0.2%; MEDIAN 3.0%; PRIOR 5.1%
SOUTH KOREA MAY CYCLICAL LEADING INDEX CHANGE -0.1; PRIOR 0.4
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Long-End Yields Edge Higher
The TYU5 range has been 111-22 to 111-27 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 111-24, down 0-02 from the previous close.
JGBS: Cheaper, Trump Criticises US-JN Auto Trading, 10Y Supply Tomorrow
JGB futures are weaker, -13compared to settlement levels, but off worst levels.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper As Markets Await US Tax Bill Developments
ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -4.5) are weaker after a subdued session of trading. Ranges have been relatively narrow.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Moderately Cheaper, Subdued Session Of Trading
NZGBs closed 2bps cheaper across benchmarks after a subdued session of trading.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - The USD Back Under Pressure
The BBDXY has had a range of 1192.42 - 1197.35 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1194. The USD opened under pressure and gave back most of the gains it made on Friday after Canada rescinded its digital services tax. CHINA Official PMIs for June: The Official PMIs followed the familiar theme of recent releases with the PMI manufacturing in mild contraction and the PMI non-manufacturing barely holding in expansion.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Comes Off, Testing 144.00
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 144.08 - 144.76, Asia is currently trading around 144.09, -0.40%. USD/JPY has drifted lower in our session, though still in the middle of its wider 142.00 - 148.00 range. "US President Donald Trump characterized trade in cars between the US and Japan as unfair and floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on autos in place." (BBG)
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 143.85($985m), 145.50(845m).Upcoming Close Strikes : 143.85($885m June 30), 145.00($1.02b July 1)
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD struggling To Bounce
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6527 - 0.6543 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6535, +0.08%. A tight range in a very quiet Asian session, US Equity futures have opened strongly in Asia printing new all-time highs, ESU5 +0.4%, NQU5 +0.5% after Canada rescinds its digital services tax. The AUD has surprisingly had very little reaction to this as it still looks for a catalyst to probe above the 0.6550/0.6600 resistance. CFTC Data shows Asset managers increasing their shorts -36967, the Leveraged community has also added to their shorts -22963. Given how poorly the USD is trading one would expect most of these shorts are being expressed in the crosses where the AUD trades poorly particularly against the EUR and GBP.
Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Looking Towards 0.6100 And Then Beyond
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6052 - 0.6078 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6070, +0.23%. NZD has drifted back to its highs albeit in a very quiet Asian session. US Equity futures have opened strongly in Asia printing new all-time highs, ESU5 +0.4%, NQU5 +0.5% after Canada rescinds its digital services tax.
Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: June Delivers Strong Returns Across the Region.
As the June comes to a close, major bourses have delivered good returns in June, despite the trade war and Iran-Israel conflict. China's major bourses enjoyed gains of 2-5% as Taiwan and the KOSPI were the biggest winners for the major bourses. News filtered through over the weekend that top negotiators from Japan and India have remained in Washington for further talks on trade deals, signs the market has taken as positive following the S&P closing at a record on Friday.
Gold Set for Worst Month of 2025
China's biggest gold and copper producer Zijin Mining Group is to buy a gold project in Kazakhstan for US$1.2bn.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Import/Export Prices | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GDP Second Estimate | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | * | Quarterly current account balance | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | KOF Economic Barometer | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | M3 | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | Bavaria CPI | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | North Rhine Westphalia CPI | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | BOE Lending to Individuals | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | BOE M4 | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0830/1030 | ECB de Guindos At IADG Conference | ||
| 30/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | MNI Chicago PMI | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic - MNI Connect | ||
| 30/06/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | USDA Acreage - NASS | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | USDA GrainStock - NASS | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | ||
| 30/06/2025 | 1900/2100 | ECB Lagarde Opening Remarks At Sintra Forum | ||
| 01/07/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
| 01/07/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index | |
| 01/07/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** | Tankan | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0630/0830 | ** | Retail Sales | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0740/0940 | ECB de Guindos Chairs Sintra Panel | ||
| 01/07/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0840/1040 | ECB Elderson Chairs Sintra Panel | ||
| 01/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 01/07/2025 | 1040/1240 | ECB Schnabel Chairs Sintra Panel | ||
| 01/07/2025 | - | *** | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales | |
| 01/07/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 01/07/2025 | 1330/1430 | BOE Bailey On Panel At Sintra Conference | ||
| 01/07/2025 | 1330/0930 | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | ||
| 01/07/2025 | 1330/1530 | ECB Lagarde On Sintra Panel | ||
| 01/07/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |