MNI ASIA OPEN: Ununified Fed on December Rate Cut
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- MNI FED: Gov Waller: Still Advocating For A December Rate Cut
- MNI FED: Schmid Doesn’t See Rate Cut Supporting Labor Market In Dissent Statement
- MNI FED: Bostic and Hammack Reinforce Powell That December Cut Far From Done Deal
- MNI US DATA: Chicago Business Barometer™ - Progressed To 43.8 In October
US
MNI FED: Schmid Doesn’t See Rate Cut Supporting Labor Market In Dissent Statement
Kansas City Fed’s Schmid (’25 voter, hawk) has published his dissent statement having voted to keep rates on hold at Wednesday’s decision as opposed to the 25bp cut agreed by the FOMC. He doesn’t see an interest rate cut doing much to address stresses in the labor market that are likely arising primarily from structural changes in technology and demographics. It would instead keep feeding inflation pressures.
MNI FED: Dallas's Logan Would Prefer Rate Hold Through Year-End
Dallas Fed President Logan, who is a 2026 FOMC voter and among the most hawkish members of the committee, implies in comments Friday that if she were a current voter she would have dissented against the decision to cut rates 25bp this week. And additionally she probably would not have supported a December cut either (in line with MNI's view that her September Dot Plot had no further 2025 cuts beyond September). "I did not see a need to cut rates this week. And I’d find it difficult to cut rates again in December unless there is clear evidence that inflation will fall faster than expected or that the labor market will cool more rapidly."
MNI FED: Bostic and Hammack Reinforce Powell That December Cut Far From Done Deal
Speaking at the Dallas Fed Bank Funding Conference, Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) and Chicago Fed’s Hammack (’26 voter) have supported Powell’s FOMC press conference remarks about a December cut being far from a foregone conclusion.
- Hammack continues a clearly hawkish stance, echoing sentiment from Dallas Fed’s Logan (also '26 voter) earlier today: "I would have preferred to have held rates steady at this meeting and not to reduce rates”.
- Bostic meanwhile said he "eventually got behind" this week’s cut but he finds it preferable to move slower when there’s so little clarity. That echoes Powell saying "what do you do if you're driving in the fog? You slow down".
MNI FED: Gov Waller: Still Advocating For A December Rate Cut
Gov Waller, one of the FOMC's more prominent doves, makes clear in an appearance on Fox Business that he supports a follow-up rate cut in December. He makes reference to Chair Powell's press conference comment that the Fed could skip a cut at the December meeting due in part to a lack of official government data during the federal shutdown (Powell: “what do you do if you are driving in the fog? You slow down").
NEWS
MNI US/LATAM: US Strikes On Venezuelan Targets Could Mark Biggest Escalation Since '89
Reports suggesting that the Trump administration has actively made the decision to target Venezuelan military sites as part of its anti-cartel operations in Latin America mark a significant escalation. The Miami Herald reports, "the targets — which could be struck by air in a matter of days or even hours — also aim to decapitate the cartel’s hierarchy. U.S. officials believe the cartel exports around 500 tons of cocaine yearly, split between Europe and the United States. While sources declined to say whether Maduro himself is a target, one of them said his time is running out."
MNI SECURITY: Pentagon Greenlit Sale Of Tomahawks To Ukraine - CNN
CNN reports the Pentagon gave the White House the green light to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles after assessing that it would not negatively impact US stockpiles, leaving the final political decision to President Donald Trump, according to US and European officials.
MNI FRANCE: Socialist Leader Says 'No Progress' On Budget After Talks w/PM
First Secretary of the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), Olivier Faure, has said “We made no progress or reached any agreement” on the budget after holding a lunch with PM Sebastein Lecornu and leader of the PS in the National Assembly, Boris Vallaud.
MNI BOE: Details on next week's change in communication format
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee's quarterly policy decision communications will include rules-based policy rate paths, reintroduce scenarios and include more detailed inputs to monetary policy decisions starting from the Nov 6 meeting, officials said.
US TSYS
US TSYS: Early Risk-Off on Venezuela Attack Plans Denied by Pre Trump
- Treasuries look to finish mixed Friday, curves modestly steeper after bonds tracked moves in Bunds earlier in the session: German Bunds retreated, 5s30s curve steepened likely tied to Dutch pension fund transition to new contribution system news.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +.5 at 112-23 (112-17.5 low/-27 high), the contract needs to trade above 113-18+, the Oct 28 high to signal a possible bullish reversal. 10Y yield -.0040 at 4.0930%.
- Earlier risk-off followed Miami Herald headlines announcing Pres Trump's decision to launch attacks on Venezuelan military sites "linked to drugs ... at any moment". Trump later denied imminent attacks when speaking to reporters on Air Force One.
- The flurry of USD selling ahead of and across the WMR month-end fixing window appears to have stalled the upward momentum for the greenback on Friday, with the USD index now settling just above yesterday’s highs around 99.75 as we approach the weekend close.
- Potential month-end portfolio rebalancing another factor for swings in rates & stocks earlier.
- WTI has regained ground in a day where Trump headlines have sparked volatility. The latest rally appears to be driven by news that the Pentagon has greenlit the US providing long-range Tomahawks missiles to Ukraine, which would be a sign of the US taking a harder stance against Russia.
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: Chicago Business Barometer™ - Progressed To 43.8 In October
The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, progressed 3.2 points to 43.8 in October. The index is now back above the 2025 average of 43.1. However, the index has remained below 50 for twenty-three consecutive months. The increase was mainly driven by a rebound in New Orders, alongside rises in Production and Order Backlogs. All Business Activity subcomponents increased in October.
MNI US DATA: Chicago CARTS Estimates Solid Ex-Auto Retail Sales Continued In October
The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) for October tracks a 0.3% M/M SA increase in ex-auto retail sales (0.2% on an inflation-adjusted basis). This is a slowdown from CARTS' 0.5% M/M estimate for September - which of course we didn't get official data due to the government shutdown - and 0.7% actual in August.
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA up 168.06 points (0.35%) at 47687.47
S&P E-Mini Future up 38.5 points (0.56%) at 6893.25
Nasdaq up 226.7 points (1%) at 23808.51
US 10-Yr yield is down 0.2 bps at 4.0949%
US Dec 10-Yr futures are up 0.5/32 at 112-23
EURUSD down 0.0034 (-0.29%) at 1.1531
USDJPY down 0.04 (-0.03%) at 154.09
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) up $0.3 (0.5%) at $60.87
Gold is down $27.37 (-0.68%) at $3997.15
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 37.14 points (-0.65%) at 5662.04
FTSE 100 down 42.81 points (-0.44%) at 9717.25
German DAX down 160.59 points (-0.67%) at 23958.3
French CAC 40 down 36.22 points (-0.44%) at 8121.07
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y +3.273, 27.873 (L: 22.774 / H: 28.261)
2Y10Y +0.995, 49.461 (L: 47.488 / H: 49.966)
2Y30Y +2.55, 106.725 (L: 103.743 / H: 106.881)
5Y30Y +2.555, 95.791 (L: 92.879 / H: 95.984)
Current futures levels:
Dec 2-Yr futures up 0.5/32 at 104-4.375 (L: 104-03.25 / H: 104-05.125)
Dec 5-Yr futures up 1/32 at 109-7.75 (L: 109-04.25 / H: 109-10.25)
Dec 10-Yr futures up 0.5/32 at 112-23 (L: 112-17.5 / H: 112-27)
Dec 30-Yr futures down 8/32 at 117-11 (L: 117-05 / H: 117-22)
Dec Ultra futures down 15/32 at 121-10 (L: 121-06 / H: 121-27)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 114-02 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-29 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28
- RES 1: 113-06 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 112-23 @ 1530 Oct 31
- SUP 1: 112-16 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 112-14 Low Oct 9
- SUP 3: 112-06 Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 4: 111-28+ Trendline support drawn from the May 22 low
This week’s sell-off in Treasuries undermines a recent bullish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 112-27, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement near-term. An extension lower would open 112-06 Low Sep 25 and the next key support. On the upside, the contract needs to trade above 113-18+, the Oct 28 high to signal a possible bullish reversal.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Current White pack (Dec 25-Sep 26):
Dec 25 -0.020 at 96.225
Mar 26 -0.015 at 96.405
Jun 26 steady00 at 96.645
Sep 26 +0.005 at 96.810
Red Pack (Dec 26-Sep 27) +0.010 to +0.010
Green Pack (Dec 27-Sep 28) steadysteady0 to +0.005
Blue Pack (Dec 28-Sep 29) -0.015 to -0.01
Gold Pack (Dec 29-Sep 30) -0.02 to -0.015
REFERENCE RATES
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.04% (-0.23), volume: $3.098T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.99% (-0.25), volume: $1.170T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.99% (-0.25), volume: $1.142T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.87% (-0.25), volume: $104B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.87% (-0.25), volume: $179B
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage climbed to $51.802B with 25 counterparties going into month end, up from $19.166B Thursday. Compares to $2.435B on October 24 (lowest level since mid-March 2021) and the year's highest usage of $460.731B on June 30.
MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: October Total Issuance Near $200B
$41.3B Priced Thursday - October finishes with a bang with $199.45B total issuance - after Thursday's $30B Meta 6pt jumbo - 5th largest on record (matching $30B AbbVie jumbo 10-part on 11/12/19, and $30B ATT/Discovery 11pt via Magallanes inc on 3/922).
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 10/30 $30B *Meta $4B 5Y +50, $4B 7Y +70, $6.5B 10Y +78, $4.5B 20Y +88, $6.5B 30Y +98, $4.5B 40Y +110
- 10/30 $5B *HSBC $2.25B 6Y +90, $500M 6Y SOFR+119, $2.25B 11Y +105
- 10/30 $2.8B *Santander $1.25B 5Y +83, $300M 5Y SOFR+112, $1.25B 10Y +103
- 10/30 $2.3B *NatWest $850M 3Y +57, $600M 3Y SOFR+80, $850M 5Y +70
- 10/30 $700M *PPG Industries +5Y +70
- 10/30 $500M *MSCI +10Y +110
MNI FOREX: USD Index Set to Post Highest Weekly Close Since May
- The flurry of USD selling ahead of and across the WMR month-end fixing window appears to have stalled the upward momentum for the greenback on Friday, with the USD index now settling just above yesterday’s highs around 99.75 as we approach the weekend close.
- USD: Three consecutive days of gains sees the DXY ~1.2% off the week’s lows, looking set to post its highest weekly close since May amid the hawkish lean from the Fed and notable weakness for the likes of GBP and NZD.
- GBP: For GBPUSD, the breach of key support at 1.3142 is a meaningful development for the pair. A close below would strengthen current bearish conditions, and refocus attention on 1.3041, the Apr 14 low. UK fiscal developments as we approach the Nov 26 budget will be key in shaping the short-term trajectory for sterling, while next week’s Bank of England meeting should not go overlooked.
- NZD: For NZDUSD, spot trades within 40 pips of cycle lows, located at 0.5683. A move below here would turn the focus to 0.5636, the 76.4% retracement of the year’s range. New Zealand Q3 employment data is scheduled next Wednesday local time.
- JPY: The lack of hawkish signals from the BOJ was enough to boost USDJPY to the highest levels since February, potentially looking to close above 154.00. Thursday’s rally resulted in a breach of key resistance at 153.27, the Oct 10 high, and confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 154.80 next, the Feb 12 high.
MONDAY DATA CALENDAR
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 03/11/2025 | 0700/0200 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/11/2025 | 0730/0830 | *** |  CH | CPI |
| 03/11/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/11/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 03/11/2025 | 1200/1300 | EU | ECB Lane Lecture In Dublin | |
| 03/11/2025 | - | *** |  US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 03/11/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 03/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 03/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 03/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 03/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 03/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 03/11/2025 | 1700/1200 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 03/11/2025 | 1830/1330 |  CA | BOC Governor fireside chat at The Logic conference | |
| 03/11/2025 | 1900/1400 | US | Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 04/11/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 04/11/2025 | 0330/1430 | *** |  AU | RBA Rate Decision |
